Now that I have seen the numbers I have to ask: am I right in understanding that you aim to make (essentially) at least an 83% return over the next year? That's with, as you state, a $60,000 account and $50,000 profit goal? But you seem to also be saying the $50,000 is a minimum amount and you want to make "a lot more than 100k" by next November since that's what you make practicing medicine and you want to earn 100% of that by trading.
So it sounds like you're shooting for annual returns of well into triple digits, maybe 250%, maybe more? And you have less than a year of live trading experience?
Not saying it can't be done, and you state that you took $8,000 out of the market in three months earlier this year so it sounds like you've got some chops. But those numbers are rather...ambitious. I mean if you can do that you're probably in the top 1%. You're like the Michael Jordan of traders. So if I'm reading this correctly, well, I'll be very interested in how it turns out.
Someday, and that day may never come, I'll call upon you to do a service for me.
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My aim is to stay capitalised until Nov 2016 with NO profit goal. Aim is to learn. I know I m still in trading school and may take few years to generate revenue to sustain life. I try Not to focus on money and hence practising with SPY and just 1 & 2 ES lots.
My long term goal is 100k hopefully from 2017 but aware that it may take longer.
I had a 10k trial goal in 4 months this year ONLY to prove to myself that I am not going to be stuck as a break even trader. That seems to be the second commonest curse for newbies like me after deep drawdowns.
In terms of returns, I risked just 50 ES points for my single lot ES swing trade which is technically just 2.5k out of my 50k capital. Even after 4 successive stop hits, its only 20% of my capital. I haven't done the returns calculation but so far happy that I will at least stay in the game longer and hopefully get wiser.
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Wow! you nailed it perfectly,any additional tips will be helpful....Even I lost my one months gains in a week, took 8k account to 18k and I thought damn, I nailed it and them boom back to dungeon ...recent weeks is the same story, slowly build it and then boom one or two mistakes back to square one and afraid to take trades because I might loose again...If I go back and read my journal, I am in trades at almost every turn of this market move just to close it early (again hindsight is 20/20)...that fear of loosing or being wrong is killing traders like me...
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I'm with you on this one. I couldn't look at the journal or plan because i'm not an elite member but had I tried going live 2 years ago I would have gotten absolutely smoked. I am still back testing with Ninja Trader Market Replay Data and Demo accounts on my days off. I am currently in the canadian military and can retire with a pension in 5 years. At that point I should be well equipped with an excellent plan to go live. Even at that point I won't be using my own money. I would rather take TST's trading combine. Maybe after 2 years of success there I will be in an advantageous position to trade my own capital.
Sounds like you have a well thought out timeline and a workable plan. That puts you miles ahead on your way to success. Good luck.
Just TWO suggestions.
1. Get the elite membership here. ASAP. That's the best 100 dollars I have EVER spent in my life. It's a one off fee. I would be happy to pay every year and possibly consider even if it's every month. Don't tell @Big Mike though.
Though I was a typical newbie 2 years ago looking for fancy indicators which gives you buy/sell signals, I never EVER spent more than 300 canadian dollars on these tools. I have also been to few trade rooms / trials but make sure there is a free trial and even when I pay, I cancel within the first month or so. I also silently watched this forum as a Non-Elite for the first few months and then become Elite. Worth every cent.
2. Go live again as soon as you can save 25k (or whatever the minimum requirement for stock day trading is) and open an account with low cost broker. For Canadians, like you and me, Interactive Broker is a great option. Don't pay for the data feed though. PLEASE DON'T TRADE FUTURES FOR 6 MONTHS. Start with ETFs or stocks. Why stocks? It's cheaper to learn. Lot cheaper actually. Let's say, you want to trade Emini Futures or Gold or Oil. There is USUALLY a big liquid ETF which mimics the futures movements (but only trade during US market hrs, but that's ok). Eg. SPY is Emini ETF and I played with it for few months.
Let's say your methodology said 'Buy' yesterday at 1890. You buy Emini future and then market moved against you 50 points You would have lost about 2500 dollars. If you had bought 1 ETF, you buy at 190 dollars and you sell/stop at 195. That's a five dollars loss and add 2 dollars commission. Isn't that amazing. The lessons One learn from that 7 dollar fees last for lifetime. Obviously you can increase the number of contracts to 10 or 100 or 1000 but you get my point, right? All I am trying to say is get in LIVE, as soon as possible but keep doing whatever homework, backtesting or reading you got to do. Don't wait to get confidence and then jump in. We gain confidence AFTER jumping in and stuggling for a bit (or a lot).
The reason I say this is b'cas trading LIVE, Significantly reduce your learning time. You have to have your money on the line. Otherwise, we DO NOT INTERNALISE the experience. That's the key in trading. I can observe the markets for years and never learn. A bit like watching sports, I guess. I have always felt like I could beat Federer by watching him for years. I played Tennis for the first time about 3 weeks ago. Now I know.
Good luck and see you in the trading grand slam.
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Thanks for you helpful and realistic assessment of returns. I replied earlier from my mobile and obviously can't write a detailed response. Now I have my belowed Mac.
My goal for 2017 and beyond is this.
I will have atleast 100k account and will trade between 3 to 5 contracts ES. My targets are usually about 10 points. If I am pyramiding or scaling in my contract, then I will only add to my working trades. That means, my maximum profit potential could be 30 points or so per day. Let's say my win/loss ratio (don't like that term - Let's call it Right/Wrong ratio) is 3:2. That means, once a week, I make 30 points and the rest of the days I breakeven.
30 points a week is about 1500 dollars. If I trade for 40 weeks a year, that would generate about 60,000 dollars/year.
I already have some fixed income revenue of 20,000 dollars every year. Some (dumb) countries still pay interest for your money
I also have plans to increase my small long term portfolio once I understand the market behaviour better and will aim to get about 20,000 dollars per year from that by dividends or by capital appreciation.
That's how I could reach my magic figure of 100k but I hope that's ONLY the beginning of my trading career.
I have been trading part time for 3 years while learning and collecting statistics for the strategy I use before I choose to quit my job and try full-time trading. I was working as a Lead / Architect, designing security software, firewall, remote access etc for a networking giant in Sillicon Valley. The pay, bonus, RSU's was substantial and quitting the job was the hardest decision in my life. I quit my job and started full-time trading 1 year back. I did it for the following reason
1) Mindset : I found that the nature of my work was to contain and mitigate risk. In trading, risk is an opportunity riding a dangerous wind. I had to get rid of my engineering mindset seeking certainty, precision and risk mitigation and instill probability thinking and respect for risk. It was getting stressful for me to wear both the hats and I choose to drop one.
2) Capital: I was at a point in life where I can financially afford to pursue my passion and dream without causing major stress. My wife is an engineer too, so medical insurance and all expenses are covered with out depending on trading income and dipping into savings. I created a Self Directed IRA account from some old 401 K accounts and trade from there, not using trading income for living expenses.
3) Choice : I have decided 18 years in networking domain was enough and if I have to work again, I will switch to financial domain. I am enhancing my quant knowledge by creating my own trading system, taking quant courses, brushing up college calculus etc. I have combined my passion for programming with passion for trading.
4) Self Development: Trading is the best avenue for self development. There is no other job that will require you to address your flaws like trading. This is the most inspiring part of my journey so far. I used to have heart palpitations, stress and such discomfort and heaviness. In the past 4 years, I am at the best place ever psychologically. Everyday I improve some aspect of myself.
5) Purpose: When you have a purpose and goal that is bigger than yourself, you will transcend the ego and selfishness. Trading has helped me in gaining a lot of clarity into this aspect of my life.
Bottom-line is I dont regret quiting my job and leaving the security of a nice paycheck. Eventhou I still dont make nearly enough to replace my paycheck, I am on my way to getting there and more. The important thing is I thoroughly enjoy the process and the journey, gave me an opportunity to follow my passion.
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Thanks for sharing your journey so far. It's very helpful for lot of beginners like me to know what others been through. Atleast it will stop lot of ambitious but unplanned talented guys to think twice before diving in. Trading is one of the hardest but also the most rewarding career. The Best, and the Worst part is ANYONE can try and that too at anytime with 5k or less (unlike our regular jobs).
My situation is fairly similar to yours except I have health background. (I don't think I will try learning Quant even-though my computer skills are not too shabby)
I see lot of similarities in the reasons for trading, you listed as well. I guess, it's probably similar for most professionals who were reasonably successful in their own field but get attracted to finance/trading. Apart from financial independence, I also like the idea of geographical independence, so that we can spend a few months a year with my parents and in-laws in India and few months in Europe. Vancouver is a beautiful city but it can become VERY grey, wet and depressing in winter.
The key statement is your last line. Does one enjoy the process of trading even if he/she makes less than half of their previous earning? If the answer is Yes, then they are likely to make more than double the amount eventually. They probably even don't care.
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