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Primary source of income: how many have made it?
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Primary source of income: how many have made it?

  #521 (permalink)
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I like to say you can anticipate but not predict. The difference is basically preparation vs time traveling.

For example, in this post:
https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-27.html#post176886

I just posted a couple of scenarios as I saw them playing out. I would then react based on what happened, but would try to avoid predicting what would happen.

Mike

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  #522 (permalink)
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Rad4633 View Post
I have to chime in now, you hit the nail on the head PB, I hear people talking about reading the market in the first 30 mins but then news or this or that happens, Bammm if you were long or short you take a big hit. My stagedy is take bunts rather than home runs, in and out quick

What are your thoughts on the best stragedy for a uptrending day as an example, after you see a move up that night (I trade ES for now) then do you let price action bounce of the mean so many times before you enter, then ride the wave after that. I lack the experience in my proper execution of this type of trade same applies to down trending

Many Thx In Advance, Nothing beats Experience! Nothing!

Thanks! My thoughts on the best successful strategy for such a day would really just depend on what you're looking to accomplish. If you're looking for a few points here and there, there would be all sorts of strategies that work. Gap up days can be difficult as many newer traders get chopped up to oblivion. By keeping an eye on the initial balance, volume nodes/areas, vwap and the NYSE Tick should provide some excellent context for what is happening in the market. What you do with that information is what matters obviously but I would encourage you to look at those items I've listed and develop a system that integrates with what you're doing currently. You may be surprised with what you come up with. All of these items except the NYSE Tick which is just data can be found here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Hope that is helpful for you.


Last edited by Private Banker; December 15th, 2011 at 10:53 PM.
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  #523 (permalink)
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Private Banker,

Thanks for your support of the thread.

I agree with not having a daily WIN limit. That's another one of those 'rampantly subscribed to/common wisdom things" that makes no sense at all to me. I mean, the market places enough roadblocks in front of me everyday without me putting one there myself.

But the same might be said for a loss limit, could it not?

Does it not all boil down to whether or not you are entering trades (that you have reason to believe) carry a positive expectation of success? And if you are correct, would it not be silly to ever quit based solely on your current daily P/L ?

I'm guessing your answer will be something like "you need to be able to recognize days and/or situations when your setups -- which quite often carry a positive expectation -- do not carry one!" If so, then yes, this would be where I believe I have my most serious problems and my lack of experience is almost certainly the culprit. And that it would be best for me to just call it a day based on my P/L so that I can hang around until I do figure it out.

This is what I do. I just haven't figured it out yet. I have been the route of having a pre-conceived vision (of the days price action) and stubbornly sticking to it regardless of what was happening -- and paying quite a nice price for believing in my own crystal ball. That sure won't happen again.

Peace,
Paige

Peace,
Paige

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  #524 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Just be careful here. Having a plan and having a market direction bias are two different things with the later being a potential recipe for disaster. There's no way we can accurately expect the market to do anything we anticipate and highly caution against being biased. At the end of the day, we should be trading on our reaction to what the market is doing in real time. Our trading plan should be unbiased in that if the market hits a support/resistance area or whatever, look to react accordingly. Maybe I read what you wrote wrong but just wanted to stress that point.

Best,
PB

PB,
I agree with you 100% but there's more to this than just what I'm presenting if I'm to do it any justice at all. Its a probability game and I don't expect it to be written in stone and its constantly being monitored as my bias is real time, but I can assure you that the stats are worthwhile and it works. It is however only 1 piece of the puzzle that I watch.. There are many moving parts and variables but I can assure you its simpler than what many think. But I certainly agree that in the market, always get ready to change your bias.. Everything is real time.

My method allows me to see the probability of both the type of market that is "likely" to form as well as the probability with both the direction and the size of the move. It also gives me the probability if a level will hold or break. I will often short into support level or buy into resistance level when probabilities favor BO.. I did it twice today on the short side in the morning and both times, the support did not hold.. In addition, prior to the EOD selloff, probabilities told me it would sell off but not take out the low set for the day where many were probably thinking it may close the gap lower down.. Nothing is 100% as this is a game of probability..
Jedi


Last edited by Jedi; December 16th, 2011 at 01:29 AM.
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  #525 (permalink)
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Paige View Post
Private Banker,

Thanks for your support of the thread.

I agree with not having a daily WIN limit. That's another one of those 'rampantly subscribed to/common wisdom things" that makes no sense at all to me. I mean, the market places enough roadblocks in front of me everyday without me putting one there myself.

But the same might be said for a loss limit, could it not?

Does it not all boil down to whether or not you are entering trades (that you have reason to believe) carry a positive expectation of success? And if you are correct, would it not be silly to ever quit based solely on your current daily P/L ?

I'm guessing your answer will be something like "you need to be able to recognize days and/or situations when your setups -- which quite often carry a positive expectation -- do not carry one!" If so, then yes, this would be where I believe I have my most serious problems and my lack of experience is almost certainly the culprit. And that it would be best for me to just call it a day based on my P/L so that I can hang around until I do figure it out.

This is what I do. I just haven't figured it out yet. I have been the route of having a pre-conceived vision (of the days price action) and stubbornly sticking to it regardless of what was happening -- and paying quite a nice price for believing in my own crystal ball. That sure won't happen again.

Peace,
Paige

Peace,
Paige

Paige,
Please allow me again.. I agree with your outlook here. The only input I have here is that when you're having a losing day, sometimes you can lose your mental edge by fearing that your losses might pile up on your next trade and this fear may interfere with your execution.. Otherwise, I say keep taking your set ups because some days you may have 7-8 good set ups and other days you may only have one and if you missed it or messed it up by exiting too soon and etc, then that's it.. The idea is to trade with maximum edge and that means taking only good set ups as they are presented..

However, as a new trader, I think a daily loss limit is prudent because things can easily get out of control for reasons you never even thought about...
Jedi

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  #526 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Thanks! My thoughts on the best successful strategy for such a day would really just depend on what you're looking to accomplish. If you're looking for a few points here and there, there would be all sorts of strategies that work. Gap up days can be difficult as many newer traders get chopped up to oblivion. By keeping an eye on the initial balance, volume nodes/areas, vwap and the NYSE Tick should provide some excellent context for what is happening in the market. What you do with that information is what matters obviously but I would encourage you to look at those items I've listed and develop a system that integrates with what you're doing currently. You may be surprised with what you come up with. All of these items except the NYSE Tick which is just data can be found here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Hope that is helpful for you.

What exactly is the NYSE TICK and how can you use it in your trading. It seems to me this is another growing 'next thing' to trade off of...

Seems we always get bored of stuff.. But I am always open to learn new things... (I think I kind of know what it is... A measure of up/down tick data from a raw/visual standpoint to show you if the overall transactions are short or long for the entire day etc..)

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  #527 (permalink)
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"I have to chime in now, you hit the nail on the head PB, I hear people talking about reading the market in the first 30 mins but then news or this or that happens, Bammm if you were long or short you take a big hit. My stagedy is take bunts rather than home runs, in and out quick"

Rad,
I can tell you that this can be done with a greater than 50% accuracy and often much greater. The method is also remarkably simple but also requires putting together a small puzzle.

Ofcourse news negates everything.. Prior to news, there should be no expectations until you've seen the market's response..
Jedi

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  #528 (permalink)
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bluemele View Post
What exactly is the NYSE TICK and how can you use it in your trading. It seems to me this is another growing 'next thing' to trade off of...

Seems we always get bored of stuff.. But I am always open to learn new things... (I think I kind of know what it is... A measure of up/down tick data from a raw/visual standpoint to show you if the overall transactions are short or long for the entire day etc..)

The TICK is as old as the electronic quote board on NYSE itself. It is simply the difference between the up- and downticking stocks. It's efficiency has diminished severely the last few years, btw.

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  #529 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
The TICK is as old as the electronic quote board on NYSE itself. It is simply the difference between the up- and downticking stocks. It's efficiency has diminished severely the last few years, btw.

Thanks... I have never used it and it seems to be popping up more and more in conversations lately. Maybe my ears are just open...

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  #530 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Thanks! My thoughts on the best successful strategy for such a day would really just depend on what you're looking to accomplish. If you're looking for a few points here and there, there would be all sorts of strategies that work. Gap up days can be difficult as many newer traders get chopped up to oblivion. By keeping an eye on the initial balance, volume nodes/areas, vwap and the NYSE Tick should provide some excellent context for what is happening in the market. What you do with that information is what matters obviously but I would encourage you to look at those items I've listed and develop a system that integrates with what you're doing currently. You may be surprised with what you come up with. All of these items except the NYSE Tick which is just data can be found here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Hope that is helpful for you.


Jedi View Post
"I have to chime in now, you hit the nail on the head PB, I hear people talking about reading the market in the first 30 mins but then news or this or that happens, Bammm if you were long or short you take a big hit. My stagedy is take bunts rather than home runs, in and out quick"

Rad,
I can tell you that this can be done with a greater than 50% accuracy and often much greater. The method is also remarkably simple but also requires putting together a small puzzle.

Ofcourse news negates everything.. Prior to news, there should be no expectations until you've seen the market's response..
Jedi

Thanks Guys this is all I needed I'm aware of all the info you listed PM and Jedi>>>>Many Thanks Guys I try not to ask for much> just point me in the right direction, I'll do the research and figure it out!

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