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Primary source of income: how many have made it?
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Primary source of income: how many have made it?

  #481 (permalink)
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Success favours the patient and courageous trader.

It's all in the psychology, how much pain can you see and take, how long can you wait?
Can you control your emotions? Trade to win, not trade just to open a trade and be in the market.

When you open a trade, you need to be sure that the trade you just made is a profitable one, you want to be a sniper, not a machine gunner.
A sniper, waits for the correct set ups, and everytime he "shoots" he gets the kill.
A machine gunner, just shoots in hopes that he'll somehow hit the target.

A novice trader would look for reasons to trade, while an experienced trader look for reasons not to trade.


It's all in the psychology on whether you become successful or not.

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  #482 (permalink)
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did not mean for you to tell us half of your strategies.... thx


Init View Post
Knowing Orderflow trading without having a super reliable consistent foundation means nothing.
I am going to get personal and bold with this post because some of the things (not all) a person needs to make money consistently is to qualify EVERY trade (first) based on things in the market that are VERY, VERY reliable.

If you use these few things and absolutely never let a loser run, You will beat 90% of all traders. I have a ton of things that I use to raise the odds higher but I will list the foundation for which direction I go.
There are 2 things that cycle back and forth every day with such reliability that it's ridicules. And why anyone would not base their entire system of of this for reliability is beyond me. This is what i used for years in swing trading until I started a mission to time my entries in order to have NO visible drawdowns on my longterm P&L.
I will will answer your question when we get to the orderflow part.

The main things I monitor are total volume cycles and fear and greed cycles.
when you know these levels in extreme times all the way down to a normal chop session.(chop sessions are hard)
Your confidence will be so high that it almost makes you cocky.

I can short into any level I want to at extremes, The big money question is where in that level do I go, because IF there is another push higher, I have to cut my loss quick enough so I can short again at the next higher level. The reason I almost never have a down day is because at some point during that day, price will retrace some. But alot of times, I ride from the highest levels till I feel we have panicked to the downside. The main thing that will make you tons of money is quantifying in your head the vol levels in between swing highs and lows.

Me personally, while daytrading, can't stand to lose even a hundred dollars on one attempt. Because I know that if it is a day where longer time frame players are coming in, my normal panic volume levels may be off and sometimes I have to try 3 or 4 times higher, even after my first extreme pick. Every now and then I will get jerked around 5 or six times and throw in the towel for the day.
In order to do this type trading, I have to read orderflow, because if I get stopped out and its a false break, I have to switch to a momentum entry and feel confident. If we are somewhere in the middle of swing highs and lows, I have to trade alot smaller and take profits quick.

Looking at the broad picture and studying tons of people who trade for their living. Most have records ranging from 60% to 70% daily win rates. And looking at all the tools that they all use. You can't find an orderflow expert that swing trades. They normally go for 2-5 points, where the 70% win statistics are.

One of the most useful parts of ofa is the volume clusters that print as little boxes on the momentum chart. (I would classify the cluster chart like an easy to read P&F chart) The vol cluster is the highest area of vol within that particular directional momentum run. It lists what %vol it is in relation to the whole bar. Greater than 50% is notable. The main thing to understand about a vol cluster is that is doesnt matter so much that a large cluster printed. It matters which side is going to gain control from that point. It gives you a defined line in the sand, because you know that when price leads 6-8 ticks (ES) off. The wrong side's stops should start to kick in. Using that little bit of info and combining it with, near s/r levels and so on, You can build strategies on fading stop runs or getting in and letting the stops slingshot you into a safety net. You can use this theory also on larger timeframes to identify stopruns out of wedges, flags, etc. You have to know why price shot out of the gate before you can trade it. I try to fade upside stopruns for my tightest stops.

The safest way to use the the cluster charts is to wait for the breakout and a pullback into the latest set of clusters that are jumbled together, so you know there is a solid war line.
Hope this helps a little.

init dear

i did not mean for you to reveal half of your trading strategies....

but then, again, PROBABLY only those who trade for a living or on their way to consistent profitability, would be able to recognize gems hidden in your exposition.

many many thx.

so are you the gentleman/lady, or are you not; and have no interest whatever in this? where did i ever come across such prose before?

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  #483 (permalink)
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nakachalet View Post
init dear

i did not mean for you to reveal half of your trading strategies....

but then, again, PROBABLY only those who trade for a living or on their way to consistent profitability, would be able to recognize gems hidden in your exposition.

many many thx.

so are you the gentleman/lady, or are you not; and have no interest whatever in this? where did i ever come across such prose before?

Thats the wonderful thing about trading, We all know what the rules are, but the rules go against our basic human nature of the comfort in numbers. If I dont feel sick to my stomach when taking a trade, it wont be the best entry.
Do you know how hard it was today to short the 3rd greed push (on the retest 2or3 ALWAYS) while close to weekly highs (lots of buy stops) on news that the The IMF was going to double the rescue fund.

The reason was that the volume in each push was lighter and the second test of the first wick had lower depth and the buyers ran out of gas.
Here is a little tidbit to watch and test. If you come to a bottom or top and the DOM resistance is very thick and the market orders give up and price retreats. I will take profits early because More than likely, price will return to finish the fight.
Do you notice that the people who do read tape will only look at either T&S or the DOM.
I note down the volume and the depth on each test. It may be 2 hrs later when it tests again but it helps.

Thats why I am here at BM, to find some tools that will graphically display and the DOM & T&S together.
I will gladly pay whatever for it. My eyes are going, slowly

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  #484 (permalink)
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Init View Post
One of the most useful parts of ofa is the volume clusters that print as little boxes on the momentum chart. (I would classify the cluster chart like an easy to read P&F chart) The vol cluster is the highest area of vol within that particular directional momentum run. It lists what %vol it is in relation to the whole bar. Greater than 50% is notable. The main thing to understand about a vol cluster is that is doesnt matter so much that a large cluster printed. It matters which side is going to gain control from that point. It gives you a defined line in the sand, because you know that when price leads 6-8 ticks (ES) off. The wrong side's stops should start to kick in.

@Init - have you seen this: Steidlmayer Volume Strips: J. Peter Steidlmayer

Its Peter Steidlmayer talking about his new market visualization tool called "volume strips" - the idea is exactly like what you're calling "clusters" - same idea of how to trade it too. I think the yearly license on the product is $300 but it is platform specific.

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
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  #485 (permalink)
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spell out exactly what you need here....


Init View Post
Thats the wonderful thing about trading, We all know what the rules are, but the rules go against our basic human nature of the comfort in numbers. If I dont feel sick to my stomach when taking a trade, it wont be the best entry.
Do you know how hard it was today to short the 3rd greed push (on the retest 2or3 ALWAYS) while close to weekly highs (lots of buy stops) on news that the The IMF was going to double the rescue fund.

The reason was that the volume in each push was lighter and the second test of the first wick had lower depth and the buyers ran out of gas.
Here is a little tidbit to watch and test. If you come to a bottom or top and the DOM resistance is very thick and the market orders give up and price retreats. I will take profits early because More than likely, price will return to finish the fight.
Do you notice that the people who do read tape will only look at either T&S or the DOM.
I note down the volume and the depth on each test. It may be 2 hrs later when it tests again but it helps.

Thats why I am here at BM, to find some tools that will graphically display and the DOM & T&S together.
I will gladly pay whatever for it. My eyes are going, slowly

init

thx again for going into details

just spell out exactly in OPERATIONAL TERMS and SPECS what you need and how you like them to function and measure et cetera; in as much details as you possibly can....

i am sure many coders here would rise up to the challenge.... and show you what you have in mind is really not beyond their realm of creative imagination and all....

yes, i could almost see the setups you described above and they repeated themselves practically everyday across the board in practically almost all products.

as you know human natures always look for the greener grass across some neighbors' yardage....

if only they would settle on two or three directional setups, they would be so happy after six months.... imo, yes a one man opinion again....

happy and profitable trading, traders of all sizes, shapes and forms....

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  #486 (permalink)
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Init View Post
Thats the wonderful thing about trading, We all know what the rules are, but the rules go against our basic human nature of the comfort in numbers. If I dont feel sick to my stomach when taking a trade, it wont be the best entry.

I can't comment on what works for specific individuals, but overall, for the majority of traders, feeling sick to your stomach when you take a trade is not the sign of a good entry or a bad entry. For most traders, it is sign into their trading psychology. It says they either do not fully trust their method, or they are under capitalized (trading scared money).

For experienced traders, a trade is a trade is a trade, your account value should not be majorly affected by one trade, your courage should not be tested by any trade, your performance as a trader should not be judged by one trade, your self worth should not be affected by one trade, one trade should not make you anxious, happy or sad. Most traders who cannot overcome the majority of the above, will probably not be in this business for long.


Last edited by monpere; December 7th, 2011 at 05:27 AM.
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  #487 (permalink)
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re:


monpere View Post
I can't comment on what works for specific individuals, but overall, for the majority of traders, feeling sick to your stomach when you take a trade is not the sign of a good entry or a bad entry. For most traders, it is sign into their trading psychology. It says they either do not fully trust their method, or they are under capitalized (trading scared money).

For experienced traders, a trade is a trade is a trade, your account value should not be majorly affected by one trade, your courage should not be tested by any trade, your performance as a trader should not be judged by one trade, your self worth should not be affected by one trade, one trade should not make you anxious, happy or sad. Most traders who cannot overcome the majority of the above, will probably not be in this business for long.

feeling sick when I go to trade is just putting the mental tug of war into perspective. Meaning that the best R/R trades are the ones that are the hardest to do.
Before I place a trade, I do all my mental stressing and self doubting as the the range is setting up that I want to get in. (not jump in and then stress). Then when orderfow agrees, I jump in. Within 3 min, I am either out, or have a cushin.
I have trained my high emotions to work with me, not against.
I love to hear people say that I am not like most traders. It tells me I,m still on the right track.

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  #488 (permalink)
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does not make any difference, just so.... target is filled....

@Init

@mompepe

long time ago, i thoght really smart individuals they do have some SIMILAR characteristics, individualities and what not.

then, when my great-great-grandson went to take a qualifying exam into a first class govt prep school and passed and was accepted.

my knowledge and understanding of human behaviors changed completely.

those attending freshmen class, there were only 600+ that year out of about 10,000 applicants nationwide.

his classmate came in all sizes, truly amazing. many physically looked like they still belonged to upper elementary schools--so small and tiny in physical appearance. then there were those 6 footers, both male and female, so very tall and slender like bamboo sticks.

and many weighted no more than 40 kg. yet some looked like wrestlers, sumo type....

@Init @mompepe, don't we agree that HOW we trade and WHAT we feel individually really does not matter at all.... just so each and everyone of us would consistently hear each and every time.... target filled.... target filled and more targets filled....

@Init @mompepe.... cheers and happy new year, everyone.

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  #489 (permalink)
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Init>Thx for sharing

In the real world I walked a different path thru the forest from the norm which has been very beneficial to me. But when I started trading a year and half ago I learned the same trading path as most other traders, I do not have to say anymore. So I am now sorting out my trading path.

Thanks again for sharing.....Your info was very informative
Richard

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  #490 (permalink)
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Init -- Thank you for your contribution to this forum. It's refreshing to have someone who actually shares reasonable info with the group. Most here come across (to me) as quite paranoid about such things -- as if they really want to believe that revealing a personal startegy or set-up is going to change the course of market history! Are you kidding me --- most traders come across as so self-absorbed that they wouldn't believe the "Holy Grail" assuming *someone else* posted it!

Jstnberg (sorry-sp) I have always enjoyed your posts and contributions and have followed them since I became a 'simple' member. (Sorry I am not an ELITE or some other 'credentialed something or another member') Thank you for sharing what you share and I have tremendous admiration for your ability to acknowlege your weakness (in screen trading) after such a successful career on the floor. You're a really cool dude!

Privatebanker (if you are still on this thread ) -- Thank you as well. Like Jstnberg -- your posts are very important in my learning process.

Lastly, Tigertrader -- You have no idea how much I respect your opinions and posts -- yet at the same time -- the manner in which you often choose to address people while sharing your opinions are, in my opinion, just not a nice way to treat people or get your points across. If I wanted to come to you for advice or guidance, I wouldn't feel comfortable about doing so. Why? Because I don't care to be addressed arrogantly or be belittled when all I am doing is asking for help? And if you are not here to help me --then why are you here? If you have any intention of replying to me on this --please refer back to the first line of this paragraph before pressing "send"

Peace,
Paige

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