I think its a myth that great traders are very secretive about their method unless you're trading size and don't want others to ride your tail.. My experience has often been to the contrary and it makes sense.. There is only so much edge that is available to every trader and it doesn't come from a systematic method or a level that only they know about.. the market has much more variables than that... It comes from the way a trader puts the information together that gives the edge.. Often very good traders have very simple methodologies but they are very clear how they trade.. That means I can tell you exactly how I trade and you may not perform the same, just as you can tell me exactly how you trade and I may not perform the same.. because we all have different strengths and preferences.. Case in point - Market Wizards don't all trade the same way but they all achieve a level of success.. 2 athletes can tell each other how they move, but in the game they will still move differently...
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This seems to mean that when one buys trading instruction, that the chances are slim that u can trade like the guru who sold it too u (despite their claims). U mostly hope that there is something u can make ur own in the information u purchased, to make u profitable...
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I agree. There are countless things to trade off of. and each day, A persons list of metrics holds different weights for that day. for example, say we gap down 15s&ps on news, I have to figure the odds between a gap fill and the length of the impact of the news.
Sometime soon I would like to start a thread on just this, which is for people to list down the main factors they look at each day and their general weighting of importance.
For example: When I get up, I look at the dax and its action and whether the es has found a decent vol bottom and how much the es is able to close the gap before the open. That tells me alot about how many fakeouts to expect at the open.
I'm sure there are tons little things that people look at. its up to us to place the correct importance and on which days to use them.
99.9% of the methods that are for sale will not produce a consistently profitable trader.. 99.9% of the gurus selling them are themselves not consistently profitable traders.. Its because they only give set ups.. Its the market bias that is the most important edge.. There are countless set ups on both sides of the market daily...
Before you find a guru, he needs to first show you that he can do it himself..
As far as sharing, most of us have had to pay blood sweat and tears to get to where we are so we are very selective who we share it with.. A strategy will become void if everyone uses it though this is not likely..
Exactly. I have no problem sharing a few little tips that work sometimes and a few rules here and there but
sharing the complete system, the brains of the whole operation is out of the question.
The business plan evolves over time as I find new, more efficient ways to do things.
It comes down to managing your risk anyways but some things took a long time to figure out.
Every great trader goes through these hurdles and continues to do so.
Trading is an individual sport (for a retail trader like myself)
I'm not a 'great' trader yet but I'm feeling pretty good about things with 6000 hours of dedicated screen time.
A complete love and passion for the markets keeps driving me forward.
The main reason I suggested the thread is that I thought it would help alot of people to describe their daily thought process. I am very consistant, but I wont be happy until my weekly win rate is at least 90%.
I am new to all this forum stuff, so I dont know all of the do's and dont's.
I figured that if I laid out all of my intuitive clues that I have learned, I would spark others and help alot of people.
For example: I go thru spurts of reading (professional traders) books, so while I read them, I want to be able to take agree with everything I read and maybe find one nugget that I missed.
Last night I started reading "sniper trading" and he was a predominate short seller (like me) in the pit and he said he noticed over time that thursdays, he tended to make more because of the day of the week effect.
Now today being thurs, as normal I try to catch the opening range break (if down). If it goes up, I trade light and wait to see some greed and hope to short a swing high. well, I was stopped out 3 times and figured it would be a range to up day. then the ES fell back down without me and carved out a bowl, which then I just knew it was going to breakout upward. After I had given up for the day, I happened to go back and take a look and saw 2 small fast breaks with almost no retracement. I was hard but shorted into weakness and picked up 13 points. I want to think that the "thurs" note allowed me to act.
Remember; unless your the smartest person on the planet, You will gain by sharing
I've shared generously many times, but have only been reciprocated by a few times by a few very good traders.. At this point, odds are slim that someone will tell me something that will alter the way I approach the market but every trader needs to continue to grow.. I can share this much..
Generally, all things equal, the long side usually have a slight edge over the short side.. The short is usually much harder to play than to the long side unless you have an edge in your market bias.. Your timing has to be better as a short trader than a long trader..
There are usually more opportunities to go long in both bull/bear markets with an edge
Short opportunities are almost always only in bear markets to have an equivalent edge
During bear markets, markets will bounce sharply from short covering and picking a bottom
During bull markets, markets will have shallow retracements and tend to extend
Markets go down faster than they go up BUT they spend a lot more time going up than down, hence the timing is more difficult..
Its generally easier to get caught by a short bounce because they are swift and violent than a sell off as they roll over
If you focus all your attention on finding an edge in your market bias, you will be successful with almost any method of your preference..
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For the longer term swing trader, I can see these making sense to a degree but it truly depends on how you trade the market. For example, if you're a target based trader and just looking to pick up a few points/pips per trade using a shorter periodicity chart, many of these items you mentioned don't really matter. Each market has it's own characteristics and flow. Equities are far different from Crude Oil or Soybeans move far different from say the Euro. A trading method should be based on common occurrences that are present in the market you're trading obviously but the occurrences in which you are looking for can vary in magnitude based on your trading objective. A trading method is just a small part of the puzzle of course as psychological hurdles and money management misconceptions are typically the account killers for traders looking to establish some consistency. Many new(er) traders also make the mistake of being over confident or laissez-faire with what they're doing because they feel they have good technical analysis skills or they "feel" they are on the right side of the order flow which always ends up being a big humiliating mistake.
In all honesty, this is one of the hardest professions to become successful in because of the wide array of hurdles a trader has to overcome. Time in the market trading real money is the best way to learn/perfect one's trading. All the other items go hand-in-hand of course such as psychological confidence, a reasonable edge and sound money management to name a few. But developing theories and biases based on seasonality or cliché's can be very detrimental so I'd caution against that.
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I respect your bias to the long side. And its hard to change the comfortable feeling from a bias.
I used to trade from both sides until I realized that the it seems the risks are greater to short, but it is actually the safest way on a risk basis.
I was a short only swing trader during the internet boom (about breakeven) and shorting the housing stocks in 2005-6.
The basic premise is that fear is stronger than greed. Excluding daytraders, If you go home short after a big run up that you properly qualified, and the dow gaps up up 200 points. I know that the worst case scenario is I may have 2 hold it a couple weeks for the gap fill. But the odds are that it was news driven and we would likely see at least a half fill.
But the MAIN reason that I only short is that I have weighed everything out (Never been wrong on a macro call) and we are on the way to a pronounced sideways to down market for a while.
I have been waiting for this type of market since the internet boom. Thats why I am gearing up now with various software (which I dont know how to use yet) So I can combine my core trading with the swing and be able to daytrade while I wait. I have been waiting for these markets for years, and i'm not going to miss it.
My main methodology to base trades from (except the opening bell) is looking a the price and volume from the mindset of the people in it.
For example: Yesterday, I really wanted the ES to go up and fill that morning gap so I could pick a spot to short. Well, it just barely filled with alot of vol resistance, (I shorted anyway) but had to cover with a small profit on the way back up. Again, I knew for sure it wanted to breakout and test the recent highs, Then it came off and when I looked closer, It looked like a real exhaustion. Which told me that most of these shorts that have been being squeezed from the lows, are finally wiped out. (at least for now) So I caught that nice short to the close.
Todays lack of any short covering off of todays lows tells me that we dont have much more scared shorts. So now I can be ready with a different entry approach of picking my tops at a lower bounce on the day. Until we hit a good panic bottom.
I am saying this to show my way of trading and thoughts. But yes, I am trying to get set up with some bid/ask indicators and vol at price charts.
However, you're way too polite. Everybody is entitled to their opinion, but personally, it really bothers me to see dilettantes (jedi) dispense advice so unequivocally, making bold statements with absolutely no empirical evidence to back up their claims. One of the biggest drawbacks of this forum is the dissemination of misinformation and the promulgation of myths about trading.The vast majority of the members of this forum have neither the past experience nor the current practice to "qualify" them to give advice to other traders. Most of them are still trying to "figure-it-out" themselves, yet end up dispensing advice anyway.
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