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Primary source of income: how many have made it?
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Primary source of income: how many have made it?

  #401 (permalink)
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my fault...


jstnbrg View Post
You need to read farther in the thread. 200,000 was a typo, he corrected it to 20,000.

but as soon as the BS horns start to sound, I tend to move on to something that might be productive. So at the corrected numba that is 2,3 years...multiply that by 3 to adjust for an 8 hour day...then the answer is so what.

I do stand corrected on this point however, and will again move on to something productive

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  #402 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
but as soon as the BS horns start to sound, I tend to move on to something that might be productive. So at the corrected numba that is 2,3 years...multiply that by 3 to adjust for an 8 hour day...then the answer is so what.

I do stand corrected on this point however, and will again move on to something productive

I grant you, 20,000 still sounds like a hell of a lot of hours. 10 years at a normal job. What did he do for money in the meantime, and even if he were ultimately successful it means he sacrificed 10 years of income doing something else to gain all this screen time.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #403 (permalink)
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forrestang View Post
I wonder what the attrition rate would be for those that stick with it for some given period of time?

For example, for those that may spend a year trying to figure it out, probably easily less than 5% of those people will make it. Maybe for two years that number would be more like 8%. Maybe for three years, might be a bit more......

Obviously it will be variable, and dependent on one's prior experience, environment etc....

But I'm just wondering what the GENERAL % vs. time spent would look like.

The unknown and unquantifable variable to this question is what level of consciousness that the would be or want to be trader brings to the art and practice of being a student. Many people have no idea how to effectively use their time. Looking inward for example versus perpetually seeking new weapons like finding a new set of impressive looking squiggly lines. I wonder how many "traders" know what the word stochastic even means? If you don't or worse do not understand the math logic behind it why in the world then risk money trusting it? Problem is charts always look so good at nighttime - so the tendency or reinforcing unconscious loop is to continue chasing one's tail. A good exercise for indicator lovers would be to hand calculate every indicator ontheir chart - hourly for example , and then see if they are still a believer in these lines. If that is too much work then perhaps reconsider your conviction in these indicators or just go find something safer to do with your money than trade.

For some others , I think it is the intellectual challenge to perpetually build the better mouse trap is their unconscious obstacle. The ego and intellect are seeking self congratulation because simple profit taking is pedestrian. Your skilled well- healed opponent does not feel that way - he just wants your money. When you enter the trading arena you walked into the proverbial lion's den. You are competing with some of the smartest people in the world with deep pockets and huge resources seeking to take your money. This never occurs to most people. Would anyone in their right mind expect to survive one round in the ufc against a top fighter with that same naivete?Of course not. The markets are much crueller teacher. I posted a book a few weeks back called Zen and Art of Archery - which is about being a student. This is the real journey of our life.

N.B. Forestang , when I used the word you, I was speaking in general terms and do not mean in any way to imply that it isyou personally I am directing my comments towards.


Last edited by drago1; November 3rd, 2011 at 12:21 PM.
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  #404 (permalink)
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Oh yeah, like I said above, like most things it is probably HIGHLY variable.

But there is likely a 'general' distribution of some sort with regards to success with respect to time. I wonder what it would look like if that % was plotted in graphical form.

Just as an example, see the pic, where the x-axis represents time, and the y-axis would represent % of traders that do become successful.

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  #405 (permalink)
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Thanks Drago, one of my favorite books.

"...we should not practice anything except self-detaching immersion..." page 49.

"The way to the goal is not to be measured..." page 51.

"...to have it as though he did not have it..." page 53.

These are of course only fragments and out of context, and one needs to read the book itself.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #406 (permalink)
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drago1 View Post
I wonder how many "traders" know what the word stochastic even means? If you don't or worse do not understand the math logic behind it why in the world then risk money trusting it?

There was a really good podcast done by radioLab a few years back talking about 'stochasticity.' It didn't have anything to do with trading, but it was an entertaining listen. Since you mentioned it, just made me think about it.

STOCHASTICITY

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  #407 (permalink)
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The best traders I have seen over the last twenty years,, will admit that they don't really need any stinkin indicators,, just the tape and a feeling.. There are those people that can beat u in golf with just a five iron, or at tennis using a broom,,, a blind guy in poker.
In the New York times Oct 9,, an article "A Masters touch or just Luck?",
John C. Bogle :"IF u ask a bunch of people to flip coins,, maybe one out of thousand will flip heads 20 times in a row.. In our business we'll declare him a genius"
Guess this supports the number theory mentioned above..
May ur lucky streak last u a lifetime...

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  #408 (permalink)
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gg80108 View Post
John C. Bogle :"IF u ask a bunch of people to flip coins,, maybe one out of thousand will flip heads 20 times in a row.. In our business we'll declare him a genius"
Guess this supports the number theory mentioned above..
May ur lucky streak last u a lifetime...

"Fooled by Randomness" is a good book to read in this regard. The thesis of this book is that in any discipline where randomness plays a large role, and where there is a large population of practitioners, it can be difficult to distinguish the roles that skill and luck play in separating the winners from the losers, and we tend to ascribe to our own skill what may very well just be a lucky string of winners.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
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  #409 (permalink)
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A Step Further

When it comes to analogies like obtaining a black belt or learning to play an instrument I think that to be an apples to apples comparison, we need to take these analogies to their extreme.

For example

a successful trader is not simply like a black belt, they are one of a very few high ranking black belts who are widely regarded as a master.

a successful trader is not simply like someone who has learned to play an instrument, they have achieved a level of performance that has them being courted by major metropolitan orchestras.


Another important point - there isn't really partial success in trading.

someone who knows just a little martial arts might be able to defend themselves in a petty argument that turns physical.

someone who knows how to play an instrument just a little might be able to entertain themselves and their friends.

someone who knows how to trade just a little is sure to get their _ _ _ handed to them by the markets at every turn.


I think most people don't realize (I certainly didn't) that when they set out to beat the market - especially in the extraordinary manner that discretionary short term traders can - they are taking on something as difficult as being drafted to the major leagues.

So yes, in that context most people do fail, lazy or not.

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  #410 (permalink)
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This is kinda interesting..


mathematically speaking or in general terms, I do not know what stochasitc means. I do understand, pretty well, what a stochastic indicator is and does but I do not use stochastics in my trading. Trading is, though a stochastic process...I think.

Right on the martial arts or black belt analogy. To add...I remember so many times guys would come in and tell me they want to fight in a cage fight. I ask them to tell me about their martial arts and "ring" experience...the answer...

I've seen it on TV!

So I would agree that the vast majority of martial artists and the vast majority of traders do have a great deal in common, metaphorically speaking. For me the parallels are amazing, but my journey is just that...mine.

Roughly, through my own emperical review, I would say that one out of every hundred adults that "starts" a martial arts program attains the rank of black belt...probably much less in some disciplines like jiu jitsu. Past that the rank or level of "master" maybe 1 in 20 blackbelts progress to a second or third degree. So what is that 1 in 2000 who begin become master?

Considering futures.io (formerly BMT) as a reasonable gauge of the "mostly retail" trading community we see that futures.io (formerly BMT) has about 20,000 members. Is it a fair assumption that there are 10 people that are members of futures.io (formerly BMT) that are "master" traders...however that is defined? I'd say probally yes. Now consider that the "professional" trading community is probably not in mass on futures.io (formerly BMT) and that the rank of master is probably more common there.

Here is why trading lags in my opinion. Traders do not take instruction. Traders celebrate (usually false) victories. In trading, especially in an online community, you can create any false persona you wish...that only works in the very short term in combat sports. On the mat you have to submit to your ability and your attributes. Being undisciplined is often associated with physical pain. There is a huge difference between simulated trading and sparring...lol.

I have been reluctant to say it before but I will now...if you have a good plan and sound instruction in trading and you execute with discipline and you are not making money on a consistent basis after six or nine months has passed you should check your plan, your instruction and your discipline and if it is a year on and you are still struggling it is probably not going to happen "one day".

That is not to say "give up", it IS though saying be honest with yourself and how you do and evaluate things. If you have the capital to fake it till you make it in trading, then good for you.

On the sports analogy.poick your favorite sport and then research how many players have recorded ONE professional contest in that sport then divide that number by the number of participants in that sports hall of fame. Staggering.

But so are the odds here in this game. Do well, trade well, be well. DB

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