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Not to veer off topic, but any system or strategy that relies on outliers carries more risk. It's always best to plan for the worst and be pleasantly surprised when berry patches such as this week come along.
"A dumb man never learns. A smart man learns from his own failure and success. But a wise man learns from the failure and success of others."
"Traders get “busted out” because THEY DO NOT SUFFICIENTLY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING. It is a function of ignorance, not money"
Ignorance seems to be one of those words that seems to take in everything but really contributes nothing in understanding..
Are all the rest of the competitors in an event, just ignorant because they did not win? Is Tiger Woods ignorant because he came in 38th, guess he did not know sufficiently what he was doing....
I'm not certain this superfluous, even antagonizing post, contributes anything to understanding either. All I have taken away from it is that you seem to have a bitter disdain for the the word 'ignorance'. Anyway, I'll indulge you:
I believe the word 'ignorance' is quite clear in its chosen context here. Specifically, if a trader is unable to make net gains, or worse, is only capable of net losses day to day, week to week, et al., well, then they are ignorant as to how to trade profitably.
Reminder - this is futures.io (formerly BMT). A different kind of forum where we keep things helpful and positive at all times. Rude behavior is not tolerated here. Debate is encouraged. But, do not provoke or antagonize someone, it is considered rude and you will be permanently banned.
Also keep in mind not everyone is out to get you, even if sometimes their post may seem to the contrary. It is often extremely difficult to judge someones intentions through a written post without the benefit of seeing them or hearing them in person so you can pick up on their body language.
Give someone the benefit of the doubt.
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Most systems need adaptation, and hence comes the experience. I have learned and created a lot of systems that are great for certain periods of time, but knowing when to change it up to me requires experiences.... unfortunately, I know of no substitute for experience than hours/time reviewing and/or tapping into another being for such information.
Broker: Advantage Futures, Ninja/TT and InvestorRT/IQFeed.
Trading: Treasury futures
Posts: 312 since Nov 2010
Thanks Given: 194
Thanks Received: 912
I'm jumping in and I haven't read the recent posts in this thread, so it's possible this has already been said or is not really relevant. I'm replying specifically to the post I quoted, not to the rest of this thread. You can have a winning methodology but be ignorant to the capital requirements of that methodology, or not be sufficiently acquainted with how the market you are trading can change its character. I knew a prop trader who made $600,000 his first year trading the yield curve in an extremely nonvolatile market and then lost $1,000,000 on a single trade in one day when the market changed. I know a guy who used to trade in the bond pit who had at least a mid 8 figure career (!) but who lost it all in the late '90s when the Treasury stopped issuing 30 year bonds. Was he ignorant? Obviously, yes and no. He knew well how to make money in one environment but didn't adapt (or just quit, why not with tens of millions of dollars?) when things changed.
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows..."
I love hearing these stories. You and Tiger Trader should invest into a thread where these stories really come through. Some may find them depressing or un-inspiring, but to me, they are lessons learned. I don't want to learn the same lesson someone just did!
I have learned and created a lot of systems that are great for certain periods of time, but knowing when to change it up to me requires experiences.... 