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So ive been trading for 6 years now.
Mostly on sim though I did do some real money trading and lost a small amount of money a few years ago.
I feel like im near to being profitable (as i think I have done for 4 years) but now I do think I actually am IF IF IF I can only take the Easy 'A' trades.
What is an easy trade?
A trade that I feel I have to take and has a lot of volume and excitement with it. A trade that is a good opportunity. Low hanging fruit.
How often does these trades present themselves?
Maybe 5 times a week, when the market is volatile it could be 50 times a week.
Basically I dont really know and if im honest I couldnt really tell you what an easy trade was. There are many vague examples and setups in my head but every day is different and the markets are constantly changing.
My question is when is it time to quit.
When do you recognise the insanity of trying to beat something your always so close to beating, but failing.
Can a loser ever make it.
Are there even profitable traders out there
AS you can tell Im not very happy right now with my trading and these are some thoughts Im struggling with.
I feel like I have really good experience and can usually 'call' a market well.
I am market savvy maybe in that I can tell a short squeeze and have kind of deconstructed market behaviour into more than just "omg omg its going up or omg its at support it must be a long!"
Basically im saying I think I have graduated from novice perspective on the markets but all I feel that has helped me do is make sense of the markets (or not be so mortified by its irrationality).
I am an order flow trader that tries to enter with tight stops take a quick scalp and hold a bit for a larger swing move.
I just thought id put this out and see if it makes any sense or if someone is in the same boat.
If Someone can see that im on the right/wrong track with my perspectives that would help a lot to.
TLDR:
Experienced trader who is marginal loser but can see glimpses of profitability asks when is it time to quit/how do you know if your on the right track.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I get a lot of emails and PM's from people seeking advice. Usually they've been losing money and don't really know what to do next. But I received a particular letter recently that made me want to write this post.
I don't believe in giving up - just things that work, and things that don't. Also, maybe work with your stop loss? I assume your losses all come from stop-outs? How many of them turn profitable after just going ticks past your stop? The hang up may be something more simple than complex, is what I'm getting at.
You need to get off sim, period. You are not an experienced trader, you're someone who has spent way too much time in a fantasy world. No offense but I equate traders who spend lots of time on sim to college graduates who won't move out of their parents' home.
Why are you stuck on sim? Answer that and I think you'll answer many other questions. You may have a future in trading. But you need to get in the game first. You've never even really gotten off the bench.
Based on your post, you should walk away and do something other than trading. Not everyone is capable of being a trader and you have the wrong attitude to even stand a chance.
Tough love, sorry, but it's likely the best advice you'll get.
What makes you think I have the wrong attitude?
^ I honestly want to know not trying to sound rude.
With regards to Sim trading I figure If I cant be profitable on Sim then I cant with real money.
I treat the Sim very seriously (maybe too seriously) and I dont think a real money transition will have too great an impact on my trading. I have done it before and am used to applying money to a strategy (poker).
Of course a Sim trader does look bad and its not ideal but if I had been doing this with real money I think I would have lost a few thousand. Maybe the learning process would be faster but IMO learning on Sim is a lot cheaper.
You still haven't said what isn't working. You can't improve without knowing what your weaknesses are. So I don't see how anyone is going to be able to help without that knowledge. It's not like there is one special thing that makes it all work - there isn't.
To me it sounds like you don't have an edge. You need an edge before anything. Confidence, conviction come after that.
So the question is, do you have an edge? Is is tangible? Can you measure it? Since you trade order flow, you are likely taking many trades a day. It means you have a set of rules that determine entries, stops, exits. If you have an edge demonstrated by historical data, are you taking all trades? Are you getting out early? Are you getting out because your neighbors dog barked (I mean, for reasons you cannot explain later)? Are you deviating from the ruleset?
Have you tried moving to a longer trade duration? You may find it to be far less stressful and far more profitable.
If trading for a living is tough, then trading short-term for a living is 100 times tougher because you have to bring your A game every single day (unless you have an automated system). That is extremely hard, especially in the beginning.
I agree with the SIM comments. After 6 years, you should not be on SIM. When I was in a similar situation moving between sim and cash, I didn't realize it was working against me, feeding my fear more every time I went live.
Have you tried identifying 1 trade criteria - the highest probability criteria you can that will allow you only 1 trade a day and trading that 1 trade live every day? You wait for everything to line up according to your criteria, if it does line up, you take the trade, you follow the rules and no matter what the outcome, you stop after that 1 trade.
To try and answer your question: 6 years is a long time but developing an edge isn't easy and takes time. You are on the right track if you have a definite edge but you fail while executing it. You need to quit if you do not have an edge or at least work on a different trade idea. If you do have an edge, then you need to work on your execution by taking baby steps - 1 trade a day until you can take 2 and set a time or a financial limit to this process.
You can suck at SIM and make money trading live. If you believe transitioning to real money won't have an impact you are naive.
I can play all the SIM games I want but that doesn't mean that I can fly an F16. This comes from someone working on their pilot license. It is much different sitting at a desk then with you ass in the seat.
Trading is the same. Real money will cause emotions that you don't and can't experience in SIM. You say you traded cash before, why did you stop? Because you couldn't handle the live money transition. Not trying to be mean, just driving a point home.
