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How is it to be profitable?
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Created: by Kwisatz Attachments:0

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How is it to be profitable?

  #21 (permalink)
Hong Kong China
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Stocks
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Scalpingtrader View Post
Excel - It's just a bunch of formulas and their diagram function...


Maybe I'm not leaving, maybe I'm going home
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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
madrid spain
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: nt
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alejo's Avatar
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Scalpingtrader View Post
It is important to again and again remind yourself of what can in terms of losing streaks, drawdown etc. etc.
Below something I built myself for that - I went ahead and adjusted it to your [target] metrics

50% winrate
1,6 profit factor
50$ stoploss per trade

see for yourself, if you have any questions on particular fields, feel free to ask!

P.S.: the probability of 7 losses in a row is .5^7 which is still ~ 1%, so even if you hadn't deviated from your plan (which I assume is playing a role in your streak as well) you still have a 1% chance of hitting that drawdown. For one event, 1% sounds small - but for an infinite number of events (assuming you don't stop trading suddenly) it becomes inevitable.

So know what can happen, decide how much "down" in % of your account you can stand IF it happens and start building your risk from there. In below example, if you might not want to lose more than 30% of your account in any given drawdown, you'd need approx. 3k for trading a 50$ stoploss.

Hope this helps...

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hi, could you share this ?
i want to calculate for the combine with max dd 4k5 diferent scenarios to test the size i need to use

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #23 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Kalispell montana
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: es
Posts: 158 since Jan 2015
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Kwisatz View Post
I understand what you say.

But I didn't increase my risk because I was loosing money. I increased because I have to increase it every 2 weeks in order to get closer of my goal.

Increasing risk is totally independent of the performance and it has to be. When I started the week with the new risk I didn't know I'm gonna take a drawdown. The reason of my failure is I was scary that my system doesn't work anymore and not really the money.

This is an interesting idea.

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  #24 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Kalispell montana
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: es
Posts: 158 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 157 given, 23 received

Darthtrader4beta View Post
Increasing your size after loses is exactly opposite of what the Kelly Criterion tells us to do.
I think that is a pretty typical mistake because cutting size after loses is not intuitive, feels wrong but it is absolutely correct.

This seem like a odd thing to do.

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