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Not sure about back testing, guess it depends on quality of testing itself. Say purely mechanical system tested by computer has fewer chances of being curve fitted.
Probably the best would be forward testing on the minimal live size. It would demonstrate the true results most accurately.
I can actually remember the conversation - 15 years ago with my best software buddy of the time. I attempted to convince him that I was sick of working so hard at software, having to get 50-100 decisions a day right, whereas I would only need to get one or two right each day as a trader.
I always thought the more I begin to understand the essence of why the market fluctuates that I would become a successful trader. I felt I had an advantage in that I naturally looked at and considered ideas and perspectives most people didn't. I thought my creativity would give me an upper hand with trading, and most of all, I thought my understanding of the ego, spirituality and emotions would give me a psychological edge.
My eyes were focused outward and my problem solving done inward. I was able to toss out the irrelevant and hone in on the most relevant techniques pretty rapidly. I am good at that sort of thing... slicing through layers to arrive at the essence of things. I thought the techniques I utilized were sophisticated yet elegant. That appealed to the scientist in me. It gave me confidence I was on the right track. I sure did put in the work to study them. It turns out I was right about the techniques being sophisticated and elegant.
What I was wrong about was just how inelegant and unsophisticated my understanding of my own flaws was. I had so many things right, but I had the most basic thing wrong. My eyes should have been focused inward, while only looking outward.
Big boys with big money have always moved the markets...we don't. Only logical thought is to think like a big boy and do the best I can to ride the moves with them. I look for clues on how they accomplish these feats. If I have a negative bias against these guys, I will never join their party.
Interesting post. Do you believe that once one is able to remove the veil from the inward self, that the keys will reveal themselves that enable solutions to be seen for positive trades?
