I started this thread because in the world of remote trading it is difficult to gauge how you are doing relative to other independent traders. The thread only applies to those who are consistently profitable but please feel free to chime in if you have not made the turn to consistency. The question is: what is your expectancy and what products do you trade? I look forward to the discussion....
Can you help answer these questions from other members on futures io?
i would also like to discuss scalability....the traders that have had a higher expectancy but it has decreased over time due to account value increasing. At what point did that equilibrium point "kick in" for you?
I swing trade stocks.
I typically risk 0.5% of my capital per trade on each trade.
Risk/Reward is 1 / 2.5 (I aim for 1/3 but slippage and break even trades reduce that to 1 /2.5)
Winning % is 35% 4% breakeven.
The whole idea is either meaningless or dangerous.
Each trade has a different theoretical distribution and the sum of those trades is not stationary.
If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack.
un-leveraged returns, sharpe ratio, absolute returns, those are our measuring sticks.
those are measuring sticks for who? I dont run a fund and I am not a CTA. What do you mean by "If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack"? Are you stating that you should not use your expectancy to size your positions? If so....duh. this is where margin to equity and risk of ruin comes into play as I am sure you aware. I am a bit confused as to what you are trying to point out.
Although I calculate my expectancy the number really has no meaning without other numbers.
Capital at risk; win loss ratio; risk reward ratio; max drawdown; duration of drawdown; but the number that I focus on is realized return on trading capital.
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
I would be real curious to see how those statistics would help you in your trading
My figures show as follows:
- avg. win per trade $1,722.45
- avg. loss per trade -$803.44
- winning probability 41.67%
- max consecutive number of losing trades 7
I risk more or less 1% of the total capital in the trading account; and do not let maintenance margin exceed 15% of that same capital.
The instruments that I watch and trade are the following:
ES, NQ, YM, NKD, 6E, 6J, 6B, 6A, ZT, ZF, ZN, ZB, GC, HG, SI, PL, CL, NG, HO, RB, ZC, ZS, ZW, LE
But most of my trading is concentrated around the ES, ZB, CL and GC.
These figures are for the past 4 years of trading, so a little more than 500 trades in total.
Hope that helps.
Cheers
Fadi
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
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I am not sure those stats will help my trading as such however if I was trading that system it would certainly give me the confidence to increase my capital or increase my risk per trade.
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
theoretically yes but it didn't work for me though... every time I've increased capital and risk per trade I've failed...
It is something psychological of course more than anything else.
Maybe I will reach there one day.
But for now, I am happy with those 80k more or less in trading account, and skimming the gains on a regular basis and into my bank account.
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
At least you know where the problem is. The system seems sound.
You might try only increasing your risk per trade by a little. Say to 1.1% rather than 1%
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
The following user says Thank You to deaddog for this post:
Very nice stats. Matches more or less my record over 10,000 trades ( Live+SIM) with CL, TF, GC, NG, CC, ZS, ZW, NKD, PL, SI, PA. My intra day draw down tends to be high till the FAT LADY sings since my stop loss are quite wide and so are targets. I tend to add to my position. Besides individual trade i look at portfolio ( i typcally have 3-5 trades on at one time- day trading mostly) risk and adjust acordingly.
Cheers
My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
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