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what is your expectancy and what products do you trade?
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what is your expectancy and what products do you trade?

  #1 (permalink)
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what is your expectancy and what products do you trade?

Hello,

I started this thread because in the world of remote trading it is difficult to gauge how you are doing relative to other independent traders. The thread only applies to those who are consistently profitable but please feel free to chime in if you have not made the turn to consistency. The question is: what is your expectancy and what products do you trade? I look forward to the discussion....

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  #3 (permalink)
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i would also like to discuss scalability....the traders that have had a higher expectancy but it has decreased over time due to account value increasing. At what point did that equilibrium point "kick in" for you?

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  #4 (permalink)
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I swing trade stocks.
I typically risk 0.5% of my capital per trade on each trade.
Risk/Reward is 1 / 2.5 (I aim for 1/3 but slippage and break even trades reduce that to 1 /2.5)
Winning % is 35% 4% breakeven.

Expectancy per trade is 0.12% of my capital.

What do you plan to do with this information?

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #5 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
I swing trade stocks.
I typically risk 0.5% of my capital per trade on each trade.
Risk/Reward is 1 / 2.5 (I aim for 1/3 but slippage and break even trades reduce that to 1 /2.5)
Winning % is 35% 4% breakeven.

Expectancy per trade is 0.12% of my capital.

What do you plan to do with this information?

ha nothing. just wanted to guage where im currently at. expectancy is ~3.5 ticks (ES, NQ for the majority) risk 1.5% per trade.

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  #6 (permalink)
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mabr0408 View Post
ha nothing. just wanted to guage where im currently at. expectancy is ~3.5 ticks (ES, NQ for the majority) risk 1.5% per trade.

How many trades is that based on?

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #7 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
How many trades is that based on?

a little over 1,000

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  #8 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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The whole idea is either meaningless or dangerous.
Each trade has a different theoretical distribution and the sum of those trades is not stationary.

If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack.

un-leveraged returns, sharpe ratio, absolute returns, those are our measuring sticks.

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NoiseTrader716 View Post
The whole idea is either meaningless or dangerous.
Each trade has a different theoretical distribution and the sum of those trades is not stationary.

If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack.

un-leveraged returns, sharpe ratio, absolute returns, those are our measuring sticks.

those are measuring sticks for who? I dont run a fund and I am not a CTA. What do you mean by "If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack"? Are you stating that you should not use your expectancy to size your positions? If so....duh. this is where margin to equity and risk of ruin comes into play as I am sure you aware. I am a bit confused as to what you are trying to point out.

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NoiseTrader716 View Post
The whole idea is either meaningless or dangerous.
Each trade has a different theoretical distribution and the sum of those trades is not stationary.

If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack.

un-leveraged returns, sharpe ratio, absolute returns, those are our measuring sticks.

Although I calculate my expectancy the number really has no meaning without other numbers.
Capital at risk; win loss ratio; risk reward ratio; max drawdown; duration of drawdown; but the number that I focus on is realized return on trading capital.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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