what is your expectancy and what products do you trade? - futures io
futures io futures trading



what is your expectancy and what products do you trade?


Discussion in Psychology and Money Management

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one mabr0408 with 6 posts (1 thanks)
    2. looks_two deaddog with 5 posts (1 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Fadi with 2 posts (2 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Fadi with 1 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mfbreakout with 1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 mabr0408 with 0.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 deaddog with 0.2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 2,022 views
    2. thumb_up 5 thanks given
    3. group 6 followers
    1. forum 14 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

what is your expectancy and what products do you trade?

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta, Think or Swim
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, 6E, CL, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, GS
 
Posts: 26 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 17 received

Hello,

I started this thread because in the world of remote trading it is difficult to gauge how you are doing relative to other independent traders. The thread only applies to those who are consistently profitable but please feel free to chime in if you have not made the turn to consistency. The question is: what is your expectancy and what products do you trade? I look forward to the discussion....

Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Can the Magnet Tool Affect Chart Orders In Overcharts Ha …
Platforms and Indicators
Help Needed: TOS Options Chain IV & IMPL MOVE Calcul …
ThinkOrSwim
Data for the YM and RTY for NT8 to practice on?
NinjaTrader
MACD line not plotting after change of plot order
NinjaTrader
Short Interest Ratio indicator?
ThinkOrSwim
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta, Think or Swim
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, 6E, CL, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, GS
 
Posts: 26 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 17 received


i would also like to discuss scalability....the traders that have had a higher expectancy but it has decreased over time due to account value increasing. At what point did that equilibrium point "kick in" for you?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 850 since May 2013
Thanks: 131 given, 2,304 received

I swing trade stocks.
I typically risk 0.5% of my capital per trade on each trade.
Risk/Reward is 1 / 2.5 (I aim for 1/3 but slippage and break even trades reduce that to 1 /2.5)
Winning % is 35% 4% breakeven.

Expectancy per trade is 0.12% of my capital.

What do you plan to do with this information?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta, Think or Swim
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, 6E, CL, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, GS
 
Posts: 26 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 17 received


deaddog View Post
I swing trade stocks.
I typically risk 0.5% of my capital per trade on each trade.
Risk/Reward is 1 / 2.5 (I aim for 1/3 but slippage and break even trades reduce that to 1 /2.5)
Winning % is 35% 4% breakeven.

Expectancy per trade is 0.12% of my capital.

What do you plan to do with this information?

ha nothing. just wanted to guage where im currently at. expectancy is ~3.5 ticks (ES, NQ for the majority) risk 1.5% per trade.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 850 since May 2013
Thanks: 131 given, 2,304 received


mabr0408 View Post
ha nothing. just wanted to guage where im currently at. expectancy is ~3.5 ticks (ES, NQ for the majority) risk 1.5% per trade.

How many trades is that based on?

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta, Think or Swim
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, 6E, CL, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, GS
 
Posts: 26 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 17 received


deaddog View Post
How many trades is that based on?

a little over 1,000

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mabr0408 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
Buffalo, NY
 
 
Posts: 64 since Jul 2014
Thanks: 4 given, 37 received

The whole idea is either meaningless or dangerous.
Each trade has a different theoretical distribution and the sum of those trades is not stationary.

If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack.

un-leveraged returns, sharpe ratio, absolute returns, those are our measuring sticks.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Minneapolis, MN
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta, Think or Swim
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES, NQ, 6E, CL, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, GS
 
Posts: 26 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 1 given, 17 received


NoiseTrader716 View Post
The whole idea is either meaningless or dangerous.
Each trade has a different theoretical distribution and the sum of those trades is not stationary.

If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack.

un-leveraged returns, sharpe ratio, absolute returns, those are our measuring sticks.

those are measuring sticks for who? I dont run a fund and I am not a CTA. What do you mean by "If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack"? Are you stating that you should not use your expectancy to size your positions? If so....duh. this is where margin to equity and risk of ruin comes into play as I am sure you aware. I am a bit confused as to what you are trying to point out.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 850 since May 2013
Thanks: 131 given, 2,304 received



NoiseTrader716 View Post
The whole idea is either meaningless or dangerous.
Each trade has a different theoretical distribution and the sum of those trades is not stationary.

If you use that number to bet size you should realize it is a number that means nothing and you have a false sense of security in that number if you view trading like blackjack.

un-leveraged returns, sharpe ratio, absolute returns, those are our measuring sticks.

Although I calculate my expectancy the number really has no meaning without other numbers.
Capital at risk; win loss ratio; risk reward ratio; max drawdown; duration of drawdown; but the number that I focus on is realized return on trading capital.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Luxembourg
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB / Kinetick
Trading: ES, CL
 
Fadi's Avatar
 
Posts: 485 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 664 given, 645 received

I would be real curious to see how those statistics would help you in your trading

My figures show as follows:
- avg. win per trade $1,722.45
- avg. loss per trade -$803.44
- winning probability 41.67%
- max consecutive number of losing trades 7

I risk more or less 1% of the total capital in the trading account; and do not let maintenance margin exceed 15% of that same capital.

The instruments that I watch and trade are the following:
ES, NQ, YM, NKD, 6E, 6J, 6B, 6A, ZT, ZF, ZN, ZB, GC, HG, SI, PL, CL, NG, HO, RB, ZC, ZS, ZW, LE
But most of my trading is concentrated around the ES, ZB, CL and GC.

These figures are for the past 4 years of trading, so a little more than 500 trades in total.

Hope that helps.

Cheers
Fadi

Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fadi for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 850 since May 2013
Thanks: 131 given, 2,304 received


Fadi View Post
I would be real curious to see how those statistics would help you in your trading

My figures show as follows:
- avg. win per trade $1,722.45
- avg. loss per trade -$803.44
- winning probability 41.67%
- max consecutive number of losing trades 7

I risk more or less 1% of the total capital in the trading account; and do not let maintenance margin exceed 15% of that same capital.

Cheers
Fadi

Nice  

I am not sure those stats will help my trading as such however if I was trading that system it would certainly give me the confidence to increase my capital or increase my risk per trade.

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Luxembourg
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: IB / Kinetick
Trading: ES, CL
 
Fadi's Avatar
 
Posts: 485 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 664 given, 645 received


deaddog View Post
Nice  

I am not sure those stats will help my trading as such however if I was trading that system it would certainly give me the confidence to increase my capital or increase my risk per trade.

theoretically yes but it didn't work for me though... every time I've increased capital and risk per trade I've failed...
It is something psychological of course more than anything else.

Maybe I will reach there one day.
But for now, I am happy with those 80k more or less in trading account, and skimming the gains on a regular basis and into my bank account.

Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Prince George BC Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker: IB
Trading: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 850 since May 2013
Thanks: 131 given, 2,304 received


Fadi View Post
theoretically yes but it didn't work for me though... every time I've increased capital and risk per trade I've failed...
It is something psychological of course more than anything else.

Maybe I will reach there one day.
But for now, I am happy with those 80k more or less in trading account, and skimming the gains on a regular basis and into my bank account.

At least you know where the problem is. The system seems sound.
You might try only increasing your risk per trade by a little. Say to 1.1% rather than 1%

"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to deaddog for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
BOSTON, MA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation, TOS
Trading: commodities, TF
 
mfbreakout's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,244 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 3,467 given, 15,295 received


Fadi View Post
I would be real curious to see how those statistics would help you in your trading

My figures show as follows:
- avg. win per trade $1,722.45
- avg. loss per trade -$803.44
- winning probability 41.67%
- max consecutive number of losing trades 7

I risk more or less 1% of the total capital in the trading account; and do not let maintenance margin exceed 15% of that same capital.

The instruments that I watch and trade are the following:
ES, NQ, YM, NKD, 6E, 6J, 6B, 6A, ZT, ZF, ZN, ZB, GC, HG, SI, PL, CL, NG, HO, RB, ZC, ZS, ZW, LE
But most of my trading is concentrated around the ES, ZB, CL and GC.

These figures are for the past 4 years of trading, so a little more than 500 trades in total.

Hope that helps.

Cheers
Fadi

Very nice stats. Matches more or less my record over 10,000 trades ( Live+SIM) with CL, TF, GC, NG, CC, ZS, ZW, NKD, PL, SI, PA. My intra day draw down tends to be high till the FAT LADY sings since my stop loss are quite wide and so are targets. I tend to add to my position. Besides individual trade i look at portfolio ( i typcally have 3-5 trades on at one time- day trading mostly) risk and adjust acordingly.

Cheers



My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:


futures io Trading Community Psychology and Money Management > what is your expectancy and what products do you trade?


Last Updated on October 1, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Battlestations! Show us your trading desk - $1,500 in prizes!

March
 

Importance of Finding Your Own Way w/Adam Grimes

Elite only
 

Journal Challenge w/Jigsaw

April
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts