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If 90% of traders fail, why not just do the opposite?
Started:March 15th, 2010 (05:11 PM) by chrisflow Views / Replies:12,350 / 42
Last Reply:February 26th, 2015 (10:55 AM) Attachments:0

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If 90% of traders fail, why not just do the opposite?

Old May 17th, 2011, 08:32 PM   #21 (permalink)
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If being psychologically ready includes sleeping well and going out with friends often - I certainly am not - so may not be able to continue for years as is.

If the stress gets to me I'll try moving from silver to gold and increase the trading account size to compensate for the lower % moves.

I've had to throw in the towel with other forms of investment and my bedrock for making the call has been profit/loss performance. 100 trades is a long time to not judge performance for swing trading.

It sounds like you are saying all successful traders are too "jet fighter pilot cool" to be wrapped up in a trade that could last 15 minutes and lose two weeks rent or make multiple times that. There have to be a lot of traders who get pissed if they lose and are relieved when they don't.

I stand in the shadow of scalpers who can set up and knock out good sized trades with frequently and ease (banging a hottie to boot).

A profitable automated system would have to be handed to me since I'm learning disabled all things programing.

The grass is always greener - but there has already been a big drop off of the % of movement netted since silver has stopped going up smoothly and started going downward more jaggedly even in the inter-day. If it gets worse then back to the drawing board.

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Old October 4th, 2011, 09:18 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I have been trading for a long time and one thing I do know is that the majority of those that fail are those that have no experience or training in trading. Too many people jump into the forum assume they will be on the road to riches and watch their money disappear. I have visited many chat rooms and forums related to the forex and it kills me to see that the majority have absolutely no training behind them.

I have also noticed that the majority of successful traders do have some training behind them. If you are going to take trading seriously, you need to seek training and improve the chances of becoming a successful trader.

What kind of "training" ? Work in the financial industry as a professional? Stock broker, bond trader or some other industry experience?

Thanks for your comments.

Last edited by VinceVirgil; October 4th, 2011 at 09:41 PM.
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Old October 4th, 2011, 09:24 PM   #23 (permalink)
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If you decide tomorrow you want to become a neurosurgeon and you perform your first brain surgery, and kill a patient... you can't just "do the opposite" the next day with your next surgery and expect everything to work out.


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Old October 4th, 2011, 09:45 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Not positive about this. My cousin is married to a neurosurgeon...I'll have to ask her.

On second thought, maybe not...she is way too serious for me to ask.

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Old October 18th, 2011, 01:07 AM   #25 (permalink)
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I think if someone did a study on traders who stuck with learning to trade, for ten years or more, then the precentage of those who make it, and those who fail, would be alot higher. This is something that take a long time, and you have to want it, bad want it

Has anyone ever seen this TV show " Gold Rush". These guys who have no experience in mining gold, or mining anything for that matter, lease a plot of land which supposedly, might have gold on it. They spend somehwere up to 100,000 of their own money, that they dont "have" and head to the wilderness. And of course it doesn't go off good. They end the season negative, with their heads spinning. We can all look at that and say "DUH", but we all have done this same thing with trading, at some point.

I know for myself the most important thing I had to answer, internally, was "DO I personally believe I can Do It".

Then you have to answer, do what? Make money day trading. Ok. How? Answer that question. Those steps, simple as they are, I didn't look at for a very long time.

I think the people who get trading quickly (if such a person exsists) are not emotionally attached to the outcome, and that, is a very hard thing to do.

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Old October 18th, 2011, 01:51 AM   #26 (permalink)
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Trading is a business. Your edge is your plan.

I relate it to small businesses. 90% of small businesses fail within the first two years.

Your entire business as a whole is a system which is made up of many subsystems.
How you place stops is part of one subsystem. How you exit with various strategies
is part of one subsystem and each exit within a different strategy is a subsystem
of a subsystem. Each one of these subsystems needs to be routinely checked for performance.
When you have poor performance in one subsystem, it can affect your entire system.
When there's a problem, it needs to be immediately identified and tweaked and then
performance tested. This may included initial backtesting but most importantly, forward/live testing.
You continue to do this until your results start heading in the direction you are wanting.
Never tweak your systems at random. Only tweak an identified problem.

Success depends on refined strategies that are routinely tweaked to minimize risk while maximizing profits. Continuous measurement, intense system maintenance and system improvement are in the forefront of my daily tasks.

Here's a few of my basic principals. Every trader should have a set of basic operating principals.
I have 30 total.

1.Losing trades are gifts that inspire me to action. A losing trade prompts the act of creating or improving upon the method.
2.I focus on just a few manageable methods. Although I watch for new opportunities, in the end I use just a few methods, acutely executed.
3.I find the simplest solution. Ockham's Law, also called the Law of Economy, states, “Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity...the simplest solution is invariably the correct solution.”
4.The money I use to trade is not monopoly money.
5.I study to increase my skills. A steady diet of reading and contemplation is vital to personal development. It's a matter of self-discipline.
6.I never let my emotions take over a trade. When in a trade, I let my system do the trading.

Last edited by Massive l; October 18th, 2011 at 02:00 AM.
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Old October 18th, 2011, 12:39 PM   #27 (permalink)
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post your 30 massive,some of us thick heads will learn something to survive.

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Old October 18th, 2011, 03:03 PM   #28 (permalink)
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"If 90% of traders fail, why not just do the opposite?"

because its not that simple - everybody has right sometimes => so do trading crowds....you don't know when amateurs will be right and when won't....


if you build you plan on Double top/bottom its the same probability that you will be successfull if you will go with the crowds or against them..theres nothing like a 100% loosing pattern, system and vice versa..

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Old November 15th, 2011, 05:44 AM   #29 (permalink)
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IMHO, taking a trade consists of 4 stages:
1. Trend analysis --> Long or short?
2. Opening position --> where to open ? and how you open it?
3. Maintaining position --> when to fold'em, when to hold'em.
4. Closing position --> How you close your position? Cut loss, target,trail stop.

A good trading method has 4 stages above. And a good trader made rules for every stage in his method and strictly follow it.

What the beginner traders are having difficulty with is not the 1st stage. But no2,3 and 4, simply because they don't have clear trading rules or they think those are not of major importance.
Many beginner traders think, as long as they know the direction of the trend, they will be able to nail it.
While it takes brain power to analyze trend (nowadays we have indies that tell us whether it's uptrend or downtrend lol), it takes emotional strength and personality from stage 2 to stage 4. This is where trading becomes hardest and painful, thus causes high failure rate.

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Old November 23rd, 2011, 01:28 PM   #30 (permalink)
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look to the market with a pure mind . 2. Or when not plan where will the market , because the market always обманит , this made the money. get 4 positions with the expectation of 2% of the dipozita , divide the whole thing at the 4 position of the part of the record in achieving 30 g , 50 g, 80p , 100 l, the Main thing not to be greedy on the market and success always be with you.

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