Need advice on a book regarding a finance related problem
I appologize in advance for being a bit off-topic, but I used to read this forum a lot and I thought it's the best place to get some serious advice given the nature of my questions.
I am building a sport betting system based exclusively on a database with the historical results of sport bettors as well as their wagers in real-time.
In short, I follow the bets of the most profitable bettors depending on their past results.
I have compilled all the data of the bettors in spreadsheets and I am running all sorts of statistics about them.
The problems I am confronted to are highly related to finance and statistics and I am looking for an advice on a good book that would help me to solve these problems mathematically.
Here are some examples of the kind of problems I am working on:
- Mr X has made 10 000 wagers with an average ROI of 8%.
Mr X gives me a tip on an event with a 1,4 odds. What is my expectation on this bet given the informations I have about Mr X.
Most generally how to rate mathematically the bettors based on their performance and the number of wagers I have about them in my database.
- How likely is it that Mr X. is in fact a lucky looser and how should this impact my bets?
- What is the optimal amount to assign to a bet in order to lower maximally my variance and optimize my profit depending on the bettor performance, the number of historical bets I have about him, the size of my bankroll, the number of bets I am able to take everyday, etc...(I guess this would have something to do with the Kelly Criterion but how to apply it optimally in my case...?)
I am working with Excel so if you have also a book that explain how to do these tasks in excel that would be great.