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90/10 Statistic the Obvious- For New Traders
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90/10 Statistic the Obvious- For New Traders

  #11 (permalink)
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the 50/50 that I was referring to was people that traded from the floor and the early stages of the screen. One big benefit of trading on the floor is that when you came to floor you worked there for several years before you started trading. Hence it was on the job training for several years before you ever traded a 1 lot.

I worked on the floor for 10 years before I traded. I gained a ton of experience and was able to save a lot of money before I traded. I had immediate success when i traded.

In 2000 my friend opened a 'prop shop' to trade spreads and I would say that 80% of the traders he brought in were successful and some were very successful. There were a handful 28 yr. old kids that were million $ traders. It all ended for his prop shop in 2009 and he is no longer in business. For whatever reason that 80% success rate is now probably 10% (if he was still in business).

Anyway, if I had a kid that wanted to get into trading I would highly recommend that he learn the mkts for several years before he entertained the idea of trading live. I also would encourage him/her to trade for a 'prop' shop. When they are backing you financially you know they are going to do everything in their power to train you properly.

I have a high school age kid and i don't want him to trade. However, I have begun going over charts with him and i will have him trading sim in the near future. Why not start the learning process at a young age.

The Market is Smarter than You Are
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  #12 (permalink)
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I heard about the term 90/90/90 the other day.

90% of the retail trades lose 90% of their account within 90 days.

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  #13 (permalink)
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I guess bottom line you can't be afraid to fail. Have to be able risk to get reward, it helps if you're more entrepreneurial minded. Also, everyone has their own opinion. One guy might think it's harder and another might think it's easier. Understand your psychology and methods you'll be good. Finally, be in it to win it.

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  #14 (permalink)
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phyrb View Post
I agree. It is slightly frustrating though because trading is so psychologically demanding it is so frustrating to be told early on that 'oh by the way most people just lose money soooo gooood luck!! ' I've been trading for about 18 months now and so far i have made about 100% on my account over this time and with a good amount of discipline and consistency.

However, i still freak out on every draw down because of this 90 % failure rate!! Everytime i lose a big trade i think oh so this must be where i give it all back again plus more!!!

Anyone else suffer with this?

Russell

Every Tuesday and most Fridays.

But it's a lot better now that I have solved the emotional trades mystery - it's simply whether we are confident in our edge - we can forget all the other reasons that we invent, they are just rationalisations to cover up thinking we have an edge but subconsciously knowing we don't.

I guess the Samurai spent a lot of time sharpening their edges for good reason.

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  #15 (permalink)
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The 90/10 myth

I have always thought the 90/10 rule was a myth and when CFTC introduced the regulation requiring RFEDs, FCMs, IBs engaging in retail forex transactions to disclosure the percentage of accounts profitable, we were able to debunk such myth.

According to the last quarter report Q4 2013, one third (33.5%) of total retail forex accounts are profitable and I would say newbie traders might start trading with forex considering its low capital requirements to open an account and high leverage that could ruin the account in no time. If you search previous reports you will find similar results.

So if a retail forex account is on average 33% profitable, I do not know where the profitability could possibly be lower, maybe trading options.

I think for the industry players is good to spread the 90/10 myth because when one third of their clients achieve profitability they say they are doing a good job preparing those traders (I have heard this before). But the reality is that 33% profitability is the average of the market, without any particular service.

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  #16 (permalink)
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tflanner View Post
the 50/50 that I was referring to was people that traded from the floor and the early stages of the screen. One big benefit of trading on the floor is that when you came to floor you worked there for several years before you started trading. Hence it was on the job training for several years before you ever traded a 1 lot.

I worked on the floor for 10 years before I traded. I gained a ton of experience and was able to save a lot of money before I traded. I had immediate success when i traded.

In 2000 my friend opened a 'prop shop' to trade spreads and I would say that 80% of the traders he brought in were successful and some were very successful. There were a handful 28 yr. old kids that were million $ traders. It all ended for his prop shop in 2009 and he is no longer in business. For whatever reason that 80% success rate is now probably 10% (if he was still in business).

Anyway, if I had a kid that wanted to get into trading I would highly recommend that he learn the mkts for several years before he entertained the idea of trading live. I also would encourage him/her to trade for a 'prop' shop. When they are backing you financially you know they are going to do everything in their power to train you properly.

I have a high school age kid and i don't want him to trade. However, I have begun going over charts with him and i will have him trading sim in the near future. Why not start the learning process at a young age.



great advice...I believe market awarness is one of the major keys to success. John madden the legend coach back in the day evalauated football players based on on many factors . One of them called the "READ" or " IQ" factor.

It's like building your instincts for the market or improving market awareness. Understanding the ebb and flow of how the game is played

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  #17 (permalink)
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lugopt View Post

According to the last quarter report Q4 2013, one third (33.5%) of total retail forex accounts are profitable

I think that is just advertising though. 3 months is not consistently profitable. And of course we don't know how much profit. For all we know 33% made $5, and the losers lost $10k each.

The following month 33% of the prior quarter losers win $5, and those that won $5 last quarter lose $10k the next.

After 6 months everyone is a big loser (apart from the brokerages who said it was all so easy).

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  #18 (permalink)
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sixtyseven View Post
I think that is just advertising though. 3 months is not consistently profitable. And of course we don't know how much profit. For all we know 33% made $5, and the losers lost $10k each.

The following month 33% of the prior quarter losers win $5, and those that won $5 last quarter lose $10k the next.

After 6 months everyone is a big loser (apart from the brokerages who said it was all so easy).

You have a good point in what you wrote because we do not know the amounts. Nevertheless, the example you gave would have impact on the number of customers in the long run, and they seemed stable, unless brokers were able to get new customers in the proportional amount of the customers got broke and closed the account.

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