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Will I make money with 5/8 MA?
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Will I make money with 5/8 MA?

  #1 (permalink)
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Will I make money with 5/8 MA?

I have a strategy that I've tested in simulation but am afraid to try real-time. I'm doing the 5/8 MA and I'm wondering if you guys think I'll make $$$ with this strategy. I do not plan on taking out any profits. Also I wanted to know if I still have to use stop loss even with this MA strategy or not. Do I have to be connected to the internet at all times for my strategy to work?

Do any of you know of any Price Action Strategies that I can test out?


Thanks


Last edited by luvs321; December 27th, 2013 at 08:10 PM.
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  #3 (permalink)
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Dude, I can't say whether your MA strategy will make money or not but I can say that you need to use a stop loss no mater what approach you take. Otherwise you may as well just donate your money to charity.

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luvs321 View Post
I have a strategy that I've tested in simulation but am afraid to try real-time. I'm doing the 5/8 MA and I'm wondering if you guys think I'll make $$$ with this strategy. I do not plan on taking out any profits. Also I wanted to know if I still have to use stop loss even with this MA strategy or not. Do I have to be connected to the internet at all times for my strategy to work?

Do any of you know of any Price Action Strategies that I can test out?


Thanks

Since you used the word strategy I will assume you are referring to an automated trading system and not a discretionary trading method.

I have a system that is profitable over many years that uses nothing more than a single moving average and an oscillator. However, it is a swing system and not a scalping or day trading system, and the profits come from the fact it trades dozens of products simultaneously in a basket/portfolio, and not a single product.

That said, I would take a guess that if you have any moving average cross over system that shows a profit, you are probably either using an exotic bar type like a renko based bar, or you are tricking the backtest engine in other ways --- the result being your system is highly unlikely to actually be profitable.

So be sure you forward test it in a live environment and compare those results to your backtest.

This is covered in great detail here in an excellent webinar on the subject:
https://futures.io/webinars/dec4_2013/algorithmic_trading_challenge_kevin_davey/

Mike

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  #5 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Since you used the word strategy I will assume you are referring to an automated trading system and not a discretionary trading method.

I have a system that is profitable over many years that uses nothing more than a single moving average and an oscillator. However, it is a swing system and not a scalping or day trading system, and the profits come from the fact it trades dozens of products simultaneously in a basket/portfolio, and not a single product.

That said, I would take a guess that if you have any moving average cross over system that shows a profit, you are probably either using an exotic bar type like a renko based bar, or you are tricking the backtest engine in other ways --- the result being your system is highly unlikely to actually be profitable.

So be sure you forward test it in a live environment and compare those results to your backtest.

This is covered in great detail here in an excellent webinar on the subject:
https://futures.io/webinars/dec4_2013/algorithmic_trading_challenge_kevin_davey/

Mike


would you mind sharing what type of MA you use? Is this in the downloads section of this website? Do you use renko bars with this? Thanks Mike.

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luvs321 View Post
would you mind sharing what type of MA you use? Is this in the downloads section of this website? Do you use renko bars with this? Thanks Mike.

Just a simple moving average. I never use exotic bar types with backtests. Just one minute data in this case, is more than enough for the trade duration in my case.

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
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  #7 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Since you used the word strategy I will assume you are referring to an automated trading system and not a discretionary trading method.

I have a system that is profitable over many years that uses nothing more than a single moving average and an oscillator. However, it is a swing system and not a scalping or day trading system, and the profits come from the fact it trades dozens of products simultaneously in a basket/portfolio, and not a single product.

That said, I would take a guess that if you have any moving average cross over system that shows a profit, you are probably either using an exotic bar type like a renko based bar, or you are tricking the backtest engine in other ways --- the result being your system is highly unlikely to actually be profitable.

So be sure you forward test it in a live environment and compare those results to your backtest.

This is covered in great detail here in an excellent webinar on the subject:
https://futures.io/webinars/dec4_2013/algorithmic_trading_challenge_kevin_davey/

Mike

@Big Mike, I've been combing the site and asking for help on the challenges with NT7 backtesting, as you alluded to below ("tricking the backtest engine in other ways"), and I'm trying to engage some of the more experience NT7 members that have backtesting experience to help us move from general statements to quantifiable best practices. To this end, would you be willing to help lead an effort to pull together some of the experienced members to outline specifically what makes for a quality NT7 backtest? I mean heck, let's take the most vanilla strategy in the world (we can even use the OP's strategy here) to collaboratively create a "futures.io (formerly BMT) Back Test Best Practice" standard that all members can use to improve their trading. The result of this effort would be you pointing to this new thread and say "read this about NT7 backtesting"--that go to NT7 backtest thread do not exist thus far.

As I've mentioned in other threads, I am more than willing to help code the concepts, outline the "best practices" in the summary page of a sticky NT7 backtesting thread and even create a backtesting wiki, but I have not been successful (thus far) in recruiting input on how to modify strategy code to create quality backtests. Perhaps your participation would help.

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