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self coach trading

  #361 (permalink)
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correl6 ene and start combine3

correl
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combine3 day1
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La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #362 (permalink)
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correl7ene

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La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #363 (permalink)
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correlations and combine day3


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now i need to take care with the overconfident issue, and continue trading as the test
continue down?
or a pullback?

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #364 (permalink)
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more correlations and combine day 4 and live test

i add more about the credit market
diference between 30y and 1yr and 5yr vs 1 yr and the skew, a guy called william was explainig and i see very similar that gary explain

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how they deceive us
news
bum, bang
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the overconfidence is at maximum
i wil take a couple of days to cool down

after a fantastic ratios, numbers, trades on combine
also i made a live trade

money management

the winners is
pyramid
because gary@tigertrader said it is better, i follow him

packages, they need to be mult of 2 and 3 for the famous hald and third to scale in out add
basic 6
3+2+1
baby step 12
6+4+2
intermedio 24
12+8+4
TTlarge 54
27+18+9
extralarge 108
54+36+18
monster 540
270+180+90

i will practice with basic/baby testing first with 1 and adding to the half pack

i need to study the swing that generate that size and the realtion with max DD and the daily loss and trade limit loss


the combine stop trailing the max dd, now i have more than 4k5 to use, but the same daily ll




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La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #365 (permalink)
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money management

yesterday not trade on tst


correlations
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i made some studies on mm
i was playing a what if...
to see how much equity, margin, maxdd,dll, i can have with the increase of equity
and what is the pack in relation with equity/max dd
in the present combine 150k
i can use pack 6 or 12
only after have built 1500 on daily basis for the maxdll rule

in the potential combine450k, i can use
pack18
the rule is each time the profit increase in 4k5 i can add 6lot to the previous pack
and if the cum profit decrease 4k5 i must deduct 6lot from the current pack
and also i calculate the profit % of max dd, because that is the trading money initially i am risking
also there s a column call cumulate profit, that the idea is repeat 8x the target keeping the same package, then not increase the risk with all the money, then theres more max dd for the next level
to avoid washout

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packsizes
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pack 6
2scenary
addin each 5 points
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or addin each 10 points
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today while i was testing addin each5
i found that when addin 5 it come backs, it is better to wait to pass 5 and in the pullback addin

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #366 (permalink)
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trading plan 2015

thanks to gary @tigertrader for all the advices he gave on his thread
and with his permission i will try to put some of those on my trading plan for this year
first step is get the goal 9k to 150k
later to upgrading the combine to 450k
in the way, practice the scale in out, and the money management to increase the packs size



trading rules since jan1 2015

Trading rules 1/1/15
topsteptrader test
account sim sc
Instrument ES
Key rules
1) Be objective: See what the market is and not what it seems to be.
Be unbiass. Live the now-Focus-Anything can happen-Trade what I see-Do not trade any dream-imagination. The result of one trade does not take care.
Stay on the right side, support the pain on the pullbacks
If I feel revenge or recovery mode stop immediately. After overconfidence and a winning strike stop 1,2 days to cold down.

2) Do not lose chances to win. Stay in the market. Rank goals by what % of ADR I get. I go for 10, 20 or more points.

3) Reduce uncertainty: wait, wait, wait, wait to find the condition that support the high probability trade idea based on PA and intermarkets correlations with big buyers going long or big sellers going short at important level.

4) Risk: Always use wide stops outside noise to prevent be stop out of a winning trade. Initially 14p & set it for the market conditions, keep the risk accordingly when size up Test the market condition with 1/6 fullposition and build the initial ½ position. Rew/Risk>6.4

5) Get asymmetrical returns big winners and small losers: Add to the winners pyramiding ,1/3 and 1/6 and hold them a lot
Risk the earnings, not reduce risk

6) S out some and scale in

7) Exit when the conditions that support the trade have finished or changed

8) Trade the market. Forget the entry price and specially the profit and loss

Money management

Test the market condition with 1/6 fullposition and build the initial ½ position
Add to the winners pyramiding ,1/3 and 1/6
keep the risk accordingly when size up

the MM plan for the combine 150k
Pack Lot
6 +3+2+1
12 +6+4+2

Pack =full position

After up4k5 cum profit , start with pack 6 and jump to pack12 when day profit is 1k5

initially for the max risk
SL=14p =$700 1 test lot
Max dll 3000, then 6 lots max in pyramid +3+2+1
And 7points with 6 lots are 2100
With 7 points with 2 lots is 700
With 7 points with 3 lots is 1050

If reach the goal continue, if touch it again the daily goal stop
Daily Goal +3000
Weekly Goal +4500 if touch it again the weekly goal stop
Goal 10trading days +9000,Win days>45%, AvWin>AvLoss, Time Win>Time Losers, exp>=0 point per lot,
Max Daily &Weekly Loss .-3000
initial Max DD -4k5
When equity reach 154500 max dd =cum profit

After the combine
Increase size to find out the level of my risk tolerance for long term plan

Equity Pack max dd goal cum profit
450k 18 13500 27k 216k
1350k 54 40500 81k 648k
2700k 108 81000 162k 1296k
5100k 204 153000 306k 2448k
Each increase of decrease 4k5 cum profit add or reduce steps of 6lot to the previous pack
The cum profit is repeat 8x the same key level


Setup:

-Trend trades preferable
-Reverse to mean
Time Frame to Trade: 2tr
Support charts 5min/min15 2500tick 40000Vol

Higher time frame 30/60/240/d/w/m

Levels
VP/VWap/Wvwap/MVWAP/Pivots/O/H/L/YH/YL/YC/VAHL/ONH/ONL/Vol/POC
OR1,OR20,IB,ONH,ONL,ONPOC

See:
Internals SP500 /NYSE/ ADL NVOL, Breath, Tick, cum tick, CumVol, %>50ma,put call ratio, trin, vix, sectors spx, effective volume, 20dmf
Correlations 6j,usdx,zn,zb,6a,gc,6e,cl,nq,TF,ym,credit spread, cbo icj, cbo skew , usd/jpy, aud/jpy, bond equity spread, EM/spx, Cl/spx, HYG/lqd/jnk/ratio, rinf, tip, xlu vs tlt, 10y divid yield difference, high beta vs low beta, DBC, 1/2/5/10yrs vs 30yrs, yield curve, zn- bund yield, pascal channel, …and more



Entries

See context, the trend, internals, correlations, levels
Wait OR1, OR20
See if continue trend or rejected
be patient and wait nice locations, choose trend days
(A setup, enter on exhaustion bar)
fade pullback and addup

Triggers:
how PA behave according levels(LL,LH,DT,DB, patterns, failed auction, bars, vol)
SL initial=14 (atr based if I have enough money)



Other:
Never let a trade open in news specially fomc &nfp
Do not trade without knowing the max dist to maxDD and max dll
Minimum time after a losing trade: 15min&cool
watch specially risk with anti-Trend

Combine rules
starting equity 150k
max dd 4k5
max dll 3k
max lot 15
Target 9000
>45% winners days

money management tst lpt
lot $cump&l
2 0-1500
3 1k5 2k5
5 2k 3k
10 3k 4k5
15 4k5 7k
20 7k 10k

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #367 (permalink)
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correl14jan and fail combine3 from 9k to 3k

correl fom 14 some of them (the 13 most are missed because i was working, and yesterday i went to the hospital, then i missed)

i try to
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i was resting and cooling down

practicing MM

and today i think i did well, but
always there s a but

before open +2k4

after the open

with the last trade open up+3k
i thought if i pass the 3k (sure i will pass...), and if come back to 3k i wil close

i thought ,perfect i am on my 5 day and i up+9000, i have reached the target, oh i am very good (never eat the chicken before to hunt it)
why not get a little more?
with the today volatility with the swiss rate
...
the trade start going down and i have to exit if 50% profit come back

but i did not do it
why
after +60
+30 look bad

+20

+1

-15

make the story short
add to loser

when i was-2k5

flat did not work, i made a mistake and buy instead sell 5

and touch limit


i can not believe it

but it is true

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trades
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there were good things today
the MM
the reading
but is necesary only 1 bad thing to waste all
the thin line between victory and defeat

now my plan?

continue as i did not touched the day limit
with this trading plan
but follow it!
and if i reach the target i will fund myself

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself

Last edited by alejo; January 15th, 2015 at 04:43 PM.
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  #368 (permalink)
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correlations15 , my problem and a plan to improve

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checking al this charts and writing down all this data , let me think and understand better the situation of the markets and try to learn how this correlations work, with the new era of negatives rates i supposed that will be new correlations between the assets


i was thinking in what i wrote about the funding myself when failed the combine..i was frustrated, and in this learning process the solution is not jump to live.

i was searching for help in the self coach trading book from brett steenbarger...

analyzing what i did

i have found this pattern:
when i have profit and i lose it, trigger and emotional state, bad for me that not let me act well
i was practicing to try to framing with net=prof-loss , but once i start to switch to bad behavior, losing objectivity , i forgot what i need to do, follow the rule, what happen in the past, what bad is for me.

well , to continue improving my skill, i need to overcome this issue, yes or yes


then i will do the next:

1)add to the rules something to let me remember what happen if i do not follow them, pain, and if i follow them something good

2)find the risk of not following the rules

3)do it daily a check list of following the rules

4)review W/M the check list

5)think louder all my thoughts on the trading session, talking everything about the trade and what happens, to let me listen and observe myself from outside, and realize when i am entering in the emotional state

6)when i am start entering in that state: exit, walk away, and calm down

7)practice trainning visualizations of all things well done according to the plan, to let me incorporate to my trainning
process

8)start the trading day goals oriented (all the above)

i am starting now

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #369 (permalink)
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combine3 day6 and trading plan from today

my plan was not to risk today more than 700 to have room for 5 trading days without touch the max dd
i need 2 wining days, but i i spend all now, i can not make it

i made the first trade, and built 3 lot for the 6pack and i realize that is too much for 700
exit, and enter next trades , get flipping and choppy, and when and reach -800 i continue
2 trades more with 3 lot -1400

what happen with the plan, to stop with -700?
why continue?
i was talking louder today , and i realize what happen, not emotianally, only i think ,this trade go down, not, this trade go up, no, ..close reverse, 5 times..
what happens if it is 10 times...blown
i realize that reverse is the opposite to wait 15 min to reasses
and i use a lot reverse...

next trade i got a nice move bulding correctly the 6 lot and finish up, but i can see here the seed of the problem why i touch the daily limit
also here , i exit soon...


the first check list for today is very negative
overtrade
exceed risk limit per trade, per day
made 3 mikstakes with rders, one adding instead of flatten
other was ,in SCwhen i reverse with my present configuration, the reversed quantity is the panel quantity not the initial position
exit soon


to think this week end, practicing visualization to follow and respect the limits and the plan

i need to find out something to help me what to do when i observe my self doing something out of plan in normal state, not emotianally
i think the answer is stop inmediatly that behavior

to re read plan from today:
trading rules since jan16 2015

Trading rules 1/1/15
topsteptrader test
account sim sc
Instrument ES

Improving rules

1-re read the plan
2-practice trainning visualizations of all things well done according to the plan, to let me incorporate to my trainning thinking process
3-think louder all my thoughts on the trading session, talking everything about the trade and what happens, to let me listen and observe myself from outside, and realize when i am entering in the emotional state
4-when i am start entering in that state: exit, walk away, and calm down
5-review D/W/M the check list do of following the rules
6-when i am observing myself doing something out of plan, "stop inmediatly that behavior", exit, walk, and rethink"

Key rules
1) Be objective: See what the market is and not what it seems to be.
Be unbiass. Live the now-Focus-Anything can happen-Trade what I see-Do not trade any dream-imagination. The result of one trade does not take care.
Stay on the right side, support the pain on the pullbacks
If I feel revenge or recovery mode stop immediately. After overconfidence and a winning strike stop 1,2 days to cold down.

2) Do not lose chances to win. Stay in the market. Rank goals by what % of ADR I get. I go for 10, 20 or more points.

3) Reduce uncertainty: wait, wait, wait, wait to find the condition that support the high probability trade idea based on PA and intermarkets correlations with big buyers going long or big sellers going short at important level.

4) Risk: Always use wide stops outside noise to prevent be stop out of a winning trade. Initially 14p & set it for the market conditions, keep the risk accordingly when size up Test the market condition with 1/6 fullposition and build the initial ½ position. Rew/Risk>6.4

5) Get asymmetrical returns big winners and small losers: Add to the winners pyramiding ,1/3 and 1/6 and hold them a lot
Risk the earnings, not reduce risk

6) S out some and scale in

7) Exit when the conditions that support the trade have finished or changed

8) Trade the market. Forget the entry price and specially the profit and loss

Money management

Test the market condition with 1/6 fullposition and build the initial ½ position
Add to the winners pyramiding ,1/3 and 1/6
keep the risk accordingly when size up
Exit from the trade if profit go down to 50% (remember when I was up3k and finish down3k and failed the combine3)

the MM plan for the combine 150k
Pack Lot
6 +3+2+1
12 +6+4+2

Pack =full position

After up4k5 cum profit , start with pack 6 and jump to pack12 when day profit is 1k5
(Do not add more neither to losers remember when I was up3k and finish down3k and failed the combine3)

initially for the max risk
700 per day max
SL=14p =$700 1 test lot or 2x7sl
Max dd 4k5 /700 8 days to trade
Max dll 3000, then 6 lots max in pyramid +3+2+1
And 7points with 6 lots are 2100
With 7 points with 2 lots is 700
With 7 points with 3 lots is 1050

If reach the goal continue, if touch it again the daily goal stop
(Do not let go down again remember when I was up3k and finish down3k and failed the combine3)

Daily Goal +3000
Weekly Goal +4500 if touch it again the weekly goal stop
Goal 10trading days +9000,Win days>45%, AvWin>AvLoss, Time Win>Time Losers, exp>=0 point per lot,
Max Daily &Weekly Loss .-3000
initial Max DD -4k5
When equity reach 154500 max dd =cum profit

After the combine(optimistic)
Increase size to find out the level of my risk tolerance for long term plan

Equity Pack max dd goal cum profit
450k 18 13500 27k 216k
1350k 54 40500 81k 648k
2700k 108 81000 162k 1296k
5100k 204 153000 306k 2448k
Each increase of decrease 4k5 cum profit add or reduce steps of 6lot to the previous pack
The cum profit is repeat 8x the same key level


Setup:

-Trend trades preferable
-Reverse to mean
Time Frame to Trade: 2tr
Support charts 5min/min15 2500tick 40000Vol

Higher time frame 30/60/240/d/w/m

Levels
VP/VWap/Wvwap/MVWAP/Pivots/O/H/L/YH/YL/YC/VAHL/ONH/ONL/Vol/POC
OR1,OR20,IB,ONH,ONL,ONPOC

See:
Internals SP500 /NYSE/ ADL NVOL, Breath, Tick, cum tick, CumVol, %>50ma,put call ratio, trin, vix, sectors spx, effective volume, 20dmf
Correlations 6j,usdx,zn,zb,6a,gc,6e,cl,nq,TF,ym,credit spread, cbo icj, cbo skew , usd/jpy, aud/jpy, bond equity spread, EM/spx, Cl/spx, HYG/lqd/jnk/ratio, rinf, tip, xlu vs tlt, 10y divid yield difference, high beta vs low beta, DBC, 1/2/5/10yrs vs 30yrs, yield curve, zn- bund yield, pascal channel, …and more



Entries

See context, the trend, internals, correlations, levels
Wait OR1, OR20
See if continue trend or rejected
be patient and wait nice locations, choose trend days
(A setup, enter on exhaustion bar)
fade pullback and addup

Triggers:
how PA behave according levels(LL,LH,DT,DB, patterns, failed auction, bars, vol)
SL initial=14 (atr based if I have enough money)



Other:
Never let a trade open in news specially fomc &nfp
Do not trade without knowing the max dist to maxDD and max dll
Minimum time after a losing trade: 15min&cool
watch specially risk with anti-Trend

Combine rules
starting equity 150k
max dd 4k5
max dll 3k
max lot 15
Target 9000
>45% winners days

money management tst lpt
lot $cump&l
2 0-1500
3 1k5 2k5
5 2k 3k
10 3k 4k5
15 4k5 7k
20 7k 10k

La lucha es de igual a igual contra uno mismo
The fight is fair against oneself
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  #370 (permalink)
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Posts: 1,311 since Apr 2013
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correlation 16 january and reflexion to initial size for day7


initial size
how can i start the day trading without blown it in the first trade?
it is risky to start with 6pack building 1/2 =3 lot with 700 max risk per day ,almost imposible to me
the initial pack need to be 2+1 with 1 test maximum, whith max 700 p trade risk
when open profit increase 10/15p i can add more if it go good or exit and repeat the process
now i have 4 days ,with 4k7, then is 1100 max risk perd day (4w+2l) i need only 1 more win day

combine
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correlations
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basic
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all
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credit
how much cost the money?
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