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Anyone had resistance to writing a trading system/plan?
Just wanted to say thanks to those who started this question and replied to it. I too have batted around many observations, beliefs and experiences as I look at restart trading. I can certainly identify with the idea where I enjoy the prep and thinking about the possibilities but flinch at testing it truly because of subconsciously fearing either failure or success. Even though I have at times over the last 10 years written down and filled notebooks with a "plan" when I've been away from trading for a while I will come back and somehow get into that airplane circling the runway pattern instead of landing I just sit up there circling running out of fuel.
Trading plans have only marginal value. Why? Because in order to write a great plan, you have to already be successful. If you do not have a strong success, how would you know what a great plan looks like? If a plan was not written based on experience or data then what support does it have to be justified or believed? Worse, markets are always changing. So, why should one trade according to a "static" plan.
Something that may help is to use principles instead of rules. Principles embody whatever the rule is attempting to embody but does so with less rigidity. For example, a rule might be don't risk more then $100 per trade. The goal is to limit your risk. But, what if you find out in your trading that your profit is much better if you were to risk $400 per trade. Your principle is to always have a fixed risk. It doesn't change even though the rules can change.
As for trading plans, I think there is probably some value in developing your "OneUp/TopStep" style tryout. You could work on goals. You could try different ideas and give a trading methodology a certain amount of capital. You might look at creating end targets, fail states, or success states. The difference between the trading plan and the tryout is you have some end points for evaluating your success/failure. As well, the end point should lead to a circular re-development path. Something you need to watch for is creating a lot of busy work that doesn't enhance performance.
What might help with the methodology part without having to go full automated is to create grayboxes or semi-automated strategies.. This is where I'm placing much of my energy, at least. A graybox is a method that has some components systematized but other elements left to discretion. One benefit is that if you develop some graybox discretionary method that doesn't work -- you can adapt and try to make something that does work.
Trading Plan ? Do you mean the guidelines for a system? It is pretty clear that most of us are rules based discretionary traders as the postings in the bot forum are pretty light and I am thinking that if people were getting called up to work at RenTech we would hear about it.
My understanding is that a system has to have guidelines covering entry, amount (position sizing) failure exits (stop loss) and profit exits. If you are new to trading (admittedly a very low probability in this area of Futures.io) Van Tharp did an experiment a book or two ago that others have replicated. Totally random entry system, but with reasonable position sizing and stop loss rules and yes of course it was profitable. That is a hint from the mistress of the market as to where to focus your efforts. If you are drawing a blank here go to the library and get Curtis Faiths book on the turtle traders. In the back he has the full rules the turtle's followed, and if that isn't a famous system I don't know what is. Added bonus he does spend a lot of time talking about the failed turtles who couldn't pull the trigger. To put yourself in the mood re-watch the movie Trading Places an over the top send up of the turtles program.
Do you mean a procedures manual for running your business as a trader? That is, the plan by which you make a living as a full time trader? The document where you have actually thought about stuff, written down the answers and then organized it so you can find the answers a year from now. I do not like canned solutions because either they were tailor made for a specific person or were purpose designed to cast a wide net, so lots of stuff that wastes your time. But just like a trading system where there are thousands and thousands of profitable systems that are very different but they all answer the same basic questions a trading business has to have answers for a set of common questions. For example what are you going to do if the power and your internet connection go down (Oh, you have a backup plan, great, have you actually tried to make it work?). What skills and resources do you have and do they fit how you want to trade? If you have a Phd doing big data mining and you have access to vast amounts of computer power and a co-located server in Mattawan than clearly you can look for market anomalies. Some of us would be wasting time and what resources we do have trying to make it in that world, so we are better served with another style of trading.
So for like $6 bucks postage Van Tharp will send you the paperback print of his last book "Trading Beyond the Matrix". In the very back he has provided all the questions he expects his seminar attendees to answer as they take a long time to develop their trading business plan. This is a lot of work and you have to figure out some pretty tough things about yourself but in the end you should have things that work for you.
Of course it is a hell of a lot easier to just surf the internet looking for a holy grail system for $300 guaranteed to make you a lot of money while the computer does all the work, better yet if it comes with a live trading room with coaches who claim to actually trade occasionally themselves! Please be kind and shoot a video shout out to all of us from your yacht so we know you found that holy grail system.
If you can measure it you can improve it . Once you measure it you have a chance of defining an expectancy , if the expectancy is < zero you stop trading for you have no edge , if you have no edge you are gambling and the skinny end of the probability curve will get you eventually .. Know your risk of ruin . know your edge , exploit it ..
Trading is about defining the Probability and managing the Possibility
SO I RECOMMEND THAT TRADERS STUDY HUMILITY. YOU ARE ALL RIGHT HERE ON THE INTERNET WHICH IS THE FREEST UNIVERSITY THERE ARE. THIS IS A WORLD WIDE CYBER REPUBLIC IN NO NEED FOR ANY GOVERNING IDEOLOGY TO CENTRALIZE IT. TUITION IS CHEAP. SO YA. DO A SEARCH ON YOUTUBE AND GOOGLE OR WHATEVER.
HUMILITY IS LIKE A WAVE THAT HITS YOU WHILE YOU'RE STANDING IN THE OCEAN. IT PRACTICALLY KNOCKS YOU OFF YOUR FEET, AND IT MAKES YOU HAVE TO GRASP FOR AIR TO BREEZE. IT MAKES YOU CHOKE. IT'S WARM, SALTY, AND FULL OF FISH SLIME, SO IT'S NAUSEATING.
SO WHAT YOU HAVE TO DO IS JUST TURN INTO IT, AND PUSH AGAINST IT. FACE UP TO IT. DON'T COWER FROM IT.
WANT TO CHALLENGE THE CHALLENGE. YOU HAVE TO WANT TO. YOU JUST HAVE TO GO THROUGH IT, AND OUT THE OTHER SIDE TO BE STANDING ON YOUR FEET STILL, AND BREATHING FRESH AIR. YOU MIGHT EVEN HAVE TO SWALLOW A GULP OF THAT HUMILIATING SEA WATER. YUCK! BUT GET IT DOWN, GET THROUGH IT, AND VIOLA, HOW FAST YOU GOT THROUGH IT.
THAT'S WHAT ROLLING WITH THE PUNCHES MEANS. GETTING THROUGH THE HUMILIATION AS QUICKLY AND IN GOOD STANDING AS POSSIBLE SIMPLY BY FACING INTO IT RATHER THAN PROCRASTINATING AND BEING ASHAMED BY IT FOR BEING WRONG. YOU'RE WRONG ON YOUR TRADES. THAT'S ALL. TRY SIM THEN.
SO WHEN YOU TRADING.....
....WHAT'LL HAPPEN IS YOU GET STUCK ON BEING RIGHT ABOUT THE TRADE. MAYBE YOU'RE EVEN AT THE POINT YOU NEED THE TRADE TO WORK, SO THIS JOB WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SENSE TO YOU. THEN IT DOESN'T GO RIGHT FOR YOU.
WHAT DO YOU DO THEN?
THAT'S THE SICK, WARM WAVE OF SEA WATER KNOCKED YOU OFF YOUR FEET.
WHAT YOU DO IS YOU GULP IT, AND JUST BOUNCE OUT.
THEN YOU LOOK FOR ANOTHER TRADE ON ANOTHER MARKET OR ANOTHER DAY WHICHEVER IT IS.
THE OTHER BIT IS WHEN YOU'RE AFRAID OF GETTING IN THE MARKET BECAUSE YOU'VE BEEN KNOCKED AROUND A LOT.
THAT'S JUST A MATTER OF HAVING ENOUGH KNOWLEDGE OF THE MARKET'S TENDENCIES. BEING A TRADER ESPECIALLY A DAY TRADER IS LIKE BEING A REFEREE OF MARKETS. HOW CAN YOU REFEREE IF YOU DON'T KNOW THE SPORT? THAT'S WHY SOMEONE IS AFRAID TO GET IN. THEY DON'T KNOW THE SPORT ITSELF YET. IT'S BEING A TINY FOOT ON ONE LEG IN THE WIND WHEN EVERYONE ELSE IS A BIG FOOT ON 2 OR 4 LEGS. IN TIME THEIR POSITION ON SUCH STABLE STANDING DEVELOPED THROUGH CONSTANT STICKING WITH IT, AND LEARNING HOW THE MARKET WORKS. EDUCATING THEMSELVES IS A LOT OF IT. ALSO COMMUNICATING WITH THE TRADERS ON THE INTERNET AND FINDING OUT WHAT ARE ALL OF THE KINDS OF TRADERS THAT ARE IN THE MARKETS IS IMPORTANT, SO THAT YOU KNOW WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO IS BEHIND THOSE CHARTS. THE DAM CHARTS ARE NOT CALCULATORS. THOSE ARE PEOPLE. DON'T EVER LOSE TOUCH WITH THAT FACT, AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHO THEY ARE, AND WHAT THEY ALL ARE DOING, THEN YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND WHY THE CHARTS ARE DOING WHAT THEY ARE DOING. THERE'S YOUR BIGGEST PROBLEM.
SO DO THE HARD WORK AND TIME, SO THAT YOU GET YOURSELF EDUCATED. THEN IF YOU STILL ARE A BIT SKEERED TO STEP INTO IT, JUST GO WITH YOUR RULES. OR MAYBE JUST PRACTICE ON SIM FOR A DAY OR TWO OR A WEEK OR TWO UNTIL YOU ARE KNOWING ENOUGH TO GO THROUGH IT AGAIN.
YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE A GREAT LIVING IN THIS "JOB." YOU DON'T NEED TO MAKE IT ALL IN ONE DAY. YOU DON'T NEED TO MAKE IT ALL IN ONE YEAR. IMAGINE HOW MANY YEARS IT TAKES TO BE A PHD OUT OF UNIVERSITIES. IMAGINE THE COST OF THAT TOO. HOW MUCH IS THIS LEARNING PHASE COSTING YOU? HOW MANY YEARS DO YOU NEED? HOW MUCH MORE ARE YOU GOING TO MAKE AT THIS JOB AS A "MARKET REFEREE" THAN WITH A PHD?
TAKE EVERYTHING I TAUGHT YOU INTO CONSIDERATION, AND JUST BE REALISTIC. YOU NEED TO BE LEARNING, LEARNING, LEARNING, AND YOU NEED TO PRACTICE, PRACTICE, PRACTICE. IT'S GOING TO REQUIRE YEARS FROM YOU, BUT KEEP IN MIND THE REWARDS. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THE RESPONSIBILITIES. THIS IS BUSINESS NOT A VIDEO GAME. TREAT IT AS SUCH.
THE INTERNET IS AN INFO REPUBLIC UNIVERSITY. ALL OF THE LEARNING EVEN CHATS WITH PEOPLE IN POST AND LIVE CHAT FORUMS ARE ALL OVER IT. ALL OF THE VIDEOS, ARTICLES, AND ORDER BOOKS/EBOOKS ARE THERE FOR YOU.
THERE IS NO EXCUSE ANY MORE EXCEPT YOU DID NOT WORK HARD ENOUGH RESEARCHING AND PRACTICING FOR LONG ENOUGH. THAT'S THE ONLY EXCUSE THERE ARE, AND THAT IS WHY IT'S A PSYCHOLOGIC PROBLEM FOR YOU.
SEEK THE SPIRITUAL TEACHINGS FOR HUMILITY. AND ACTUALLY I DON'T RECOMMEND MUCH PSYCHOLOGY EDUCATION AT ALL. I RECOMMEND SPIRITUAL TEACHINGS, AND I RECOMMEND THE WISDOM OF SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE THROUGHOUT HISTORY. ASK GOOGLE AND YOUTUBE FOR THIS STUFF. FIND CHAT FORUMS, AND SEARCH THEM, AND ASK THE PEOPLE THERE. YOU'RE GOING TO FIND OUT A TON. THIS IS THE BIGGEST UNIVERSITY ON EARTH. YOU'RE GOING TO FIND OUT ANYTHING YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT.
Im finding it quite tough but only because its a shlep compiling it in MS Word (really hate using Word). Ever since I was told by @kevinkdog that I know jack shit about trading my resolve was galvanized . Mine is progressing but is not going to be a set of strict hard and fast rules that must be obeyed. I have guidelines that must be followed, lots of graphs and pictures indicating the type of structure I look for before considering a trade. My excel spreadsheet only has entry categories in line with the guidelines mentioned in the trading plan.
I am finding it a very useful exercise to go through and I recommend it.
GETTING THROUGH THE HUMILIATION AS QUICKLY AND IN GOOD STANDING AS POSSIBLE SIMPLY BY FACING INTO IT RATHER THAN PROCRASTINATING AND BEING ASHAMED BY IT FOR BEING WRONG. YOU'RE WRONG ON YOUR TRADES. THAT'S ALL. TRY SIM THEN. 
THAN WITH A PHD? 
. Mine is progressing but is not going to be a set of strict hard and fast rules that must be obeyed. I have guidelines that must be followed, 
