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Trader survival rate: an actual sample (Tuco Trading)
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Trader survival rate: an actual sample (Tuco Trading)

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Beginner
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Rock Sexton View Post
Part of me wonders if the reason for so many failed traders and hedge funds is because of the fixation on the end result (i.e. a specific % of profit) as opposed to first trading to remove risk. Granted, who even knows if these traders or funds have bonafied systems in place to begin with .....

Funny thing is some of those under-perform because they don't have any risk rules, and some because there are too many. As an analyst I pull my hair out some days because we hit profit target on investment A, but we hold it because the other idea we have can't take take the size of old investment realized to be sold, or because the next best opportunity would put our country or sector risk limit out of bounds, or everything else has run up so much that it doesn't look as bad as some of the other stuff, or because at the moment there isn't a better alternative. All part of the seller's dilemma, which is very real at the institutional level. When you have to be invested all the time, it changes the game. You can't justify your fees by sitting in cash waiting for the next best thing to come along. You spend a lot of time choosing the "least bad of difficult decisions."

Also worth noting that a hedge fund that closes can close on a profitable year. Return/volatility may be askew, one investor could redeem, which would leave another investor with too big of a stake for its internal rules, so they have to redeem, which cascades through the fund. One year, at one fund, it saw redemption because it had out performed peers so well that its weight versus other similar funds had grown too large for the client, so they pulled funds to balance out the allocation among funds.

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