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Most of your profits come from ... (base hits vs homeruns)
For me; reasonable targets would follow price action and support/resistance levels instead of my own dictated RR
I still believe that one can't dictate his will on the markets, but just follow it...
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
Oh, the larger targets are based on technical levels and S/R, that is the problem! Of course, such extended levels are infrequently reached, while being able to stay on board while in a trade.
When I see polls of this nature, I'm always so frustrated that I can't correlate the answer against a PnL statement
Anyway for the record I answered c something else, financial markets aren't some sort of Swiss watch mechanism, you control what you can, and get what you get and that's about it really.
What he may be alluding to is that you need to base your target on something instead of hitting for home runs regardless of what the market is most likely to give you. It comes back to probabilities. If you are in a trading range and you've taken a long off the bottom of the range, swinging for 10R when the upper range is sitting at 3R is not putting the probabilities in your corner that your 10R target will be reached. At the very least, part of your position should be targeted at 3R.
However on the flip side of that, if market structure is showing signs that a 10R may be possible, then go for it. Dont just settle for 3R. Let the market decide where your target should be.
It isn't necessarily, but for my strategy/style/execution/psychological profile/risk management, at least as is, shooting for the 10R/home run targets hasn't been working out for me, when doing so, my win rate is too low to sustain the R/R for overall positive expectancy.
Yes exactly, on point! For me, it is a problem being blinded by greed of 10R targets, even though they are based on market structure/key levels, the probabilities of hitting them in my timeframe/risk management/execution, are too low, on most days, when the market is in rotational trade, and I have to do a better job of keeping this in mind, and waiting for the rare days of strong trend AFTER it is proven, and only then expanding to larger targets.
Wow I just had this discussion with my wife a couple days ago while GC was running away from me and I was feeling disgusted from not being in it.
After almost 5 years of full time trading I have had 1 home run back when I was trading options. I was just in a good oversold setup and some big news came out and it exploded on me.
I have to keep reminding myself it's the base hits that keep me going not the home runs while a home run runs away from me and I'm not in it.
It used to be base hits and then holding onto a loser would take away a lot of it.
Now I usually stick around breakeven and have the homerun every now and then
or I lose base hits while going for the homerun.
