All in All out Trade Management - how much breathing room? - Psychology and Money Management | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


All in All out Trade Management - how much breathing room?
Updated: Views / Replies:2,140 / 22
Created: by treydog999 Attachments:0

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

All in All out Trade Management - how much breathing room?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
seoul, Korea
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts
Broker/Data: CQG, DTN IQfeed
Favorite Futures: YM 6E
 
treydog999's Avatar
 
Posts: 894 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 291 given, 1,006 received

All in All out Trade Management - how much breathing room?

I am having a bit of a conundrum. especially because of 1 lot trade. I know people say scale out with multiple lots, which does have its own pros and cons. But this situation happens to me pretty much on a daily basis and it applys to anyone who does AIAO.

You take a trade and you are in the green. say your stop is 15 ticks and target is 30 ticks. When do you start trailing your stop? if at all?

Now lets take this a step further, your 3 ticks from hitting your target, where is your stop? Is it still at a full stop? So you're risking 27 on paper + 15 actualized so 42 Net to gain 3? or even if you're at break even your risking 27 to gain 3? That math just does not make sense to me. However if i trail up aggressively i do cut myself off at the knees sometimes.

So say I take a 1:1 squeeze stop after we have made it 50% of our way to target. It could be any percentage but its easy to think of this way. If our target is 30 and we make it to 15 we now move stop to break even (Risking 15 for 15 more) When we get to 20 we move our stop up to + 10 (risking 10 to gain 10). When we are at 25 ( move stop up to +20 risking 5 to gain 5 more). Etc....

I have not done any math on this. i am actually quiet poor at looking at situational and combinatorial probabilities. But what is a good way to manage this risk? I mean it just gets me that if you do AIAO and never move your stop, you could be 1 tick from target and get a full stop out. Seems ridiculous to me. But also if you trail to aggressively you never actually get your full targets. THOUGHTS?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to treydog999 for this post:
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader, r-trader
Favorite Futures: CL, NG, TF, NQ, YM, GC, ES
 
liquidcci's Avatar
 
Posts: 862 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 609 given, 1,051 received


Backtest then forward test only way to find what "might" work best. Trailing stops are hard to backtest though. You are trading blind if try to set on just what you think might work. Also because every setup is different it is not something someone can tell you set it this way and it work. I like the idea of trailing stops but so hard to test I don't use them. I will move stop once to BE plus 1 on some setups but that is based on extensive testing as it is easier to test a one time move.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."

Last edited by liquidcci; May 29th, 2013 at 03:57 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to liquidcci for this post:
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
@ Germany
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: FDAX
 
Posts: 441 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 254 given, 369 received

Hi @treydog999,

if you have a backtestable pattern then you could test different trade management techniques on your historical trades. For my own purposes i've build an own tool to get the statistics done, but i'm sure you can get that also within ninjatrader (create an strategy with public variables for your position managment logic - and do optimize). Thats a question of effort to get the answer to your questions.

Because every system is different i think that there is no common answer to your question. It's MUCH harder to get the statistical results if you manage your position within one trade.

For an long time i have worked with initial targets (+trailing), but actually i test using different targets with one trade and using limit orders at these levels. I try to let 1/3 of the position run into the next upper resistance/fib cluster zone. It's clear that the "running positions" are protected from being loosers.

I prefer to enable a bar trailing stop at the initial target (with small range or tick bars charts). It cuts the losses (from do the trailing) short and it can hold you longer in the trade. Additionally i look at the key reversal times of the instrument (from own statistics) and apply an ATR trailing stop at the open positions at that times (working on that).

It's a long way to leave the AIAO path with confidence.

Koepisch

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Koepisch for this post:
 
  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,697 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 3,041 given, 4,497 received


treydog999 View Post
...I have not done any math on this. i am actually quiet poor at looking at situational and combinatorial probabilities. But what is a good way to manage this risk? I mean it just gets me that if you do AIAO and never move your stop, you could be 1 tick from target and get a full stop out. Seems ridiculous to me. But also if you trail to aggressively you never actually get your full targets. THOUGHTS?

My opinion is that you need to test it and see what is more profitable. Indicator Warehouse did a tool (Profit finder) to test out various trailing stops. It's a bit expensive maybe a scripter here at futures.io (formerly BMT) could create a similar tool. Anyway, it's possible to find your own answer without spending too much time.

Indicator Warehouse Profit Finder for Basic Strategy - YouTube

Reply With Quote
 
  #6 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Brussels, Belgium
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: ES,CL
 
Posts: 11 since May 2013
Thanks: 10 given, 6 received

I've eliminated B/E stops out of my trading. I take a loss or I take a profit. Sure it's not 'fun' to take a loss after the trade went in your favour first. But don't look at the outcome of 1 trade, look at the results of 20-50-100-... trades.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Ecko for this post:
 
  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
Detroit, Michigan
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 295 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 302 given, 280 received

This is the correct answer and very simple.....but not easy in real time LIVE. The temptation to overcome moving to BE is imho a deciding factor in whether one is profitable as a trader or not.

Why? Because moving stops to BE basically hurt your winning trades in my experience. Seems counter-intuitive but my LIVE experience shows this to be the case.

Moving stops "should" be reserved for if the signal is no longer valid or market conditions (ie. breaking a trend line, doji, etc) then exiting a trade prior target tends to work.



Ecko View Post
I've eliminated B/E stops out of my trading. I take a loss or I take a profit. Sure it's not 'fun' to take a loss after the trade went in your favour first. But don't look at the outcome of 1 trade, look at the results of 20-50-100-... trades.


Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to TrendTraderBH for this post:
 
  #8 (permalink)
Elite Member
Austin, TX
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: ninjatrader, r-trader
Favorite Futures: CL, NG, TF, NQ, YM, GC, ES
 
liquidcci's Avatar
 
Posts: 862 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 609 given, 1,051 received


TrendTraderBH View Post
This is the correct answer and very simple.....but not easy in real time LIVE. The temptation to overcome moving to BE is imho a deciding factor in whether one is profitable as a trader or not.

Why? Because moving stops to BE basically hurt your winning trades in my experience. Seems counter-intuitive but my LIVE experience shows this to be the case.

Moving stops "should" be reserved for if the signal is no longer valid or market conditions (ie. breaking a trend line, doji, etc) then exiting a trade prior target tends to work.

Moving stops to BE can be a great tool. At one time I thought they did more harm than good. They should never be used for an emotional backstop. But there are certain markets certain setups where they can reduce draw and increase profit substantially in some cases. Like anything in trading though only implement if your have a clear case via stats to use.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to liquidcci for this post:
 
  #9 (permalink)
Elite Member
seoul, Korea
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts
Broker/Data: CQG, DTN IQfeed
Favorite Futures: YM 6E
 
treydog999's Avatar
 
Posts: 894 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 291 given, 1,006 received

So what I am getting it a, it depends. Do your own homework. Unfortunately my set up is not programmable or straight back testable. But I have over 80 trades live (all managed differently unfortunately) to go off of. I guess i will just study up on my journal and see what's best.

Reply With Quote
 
  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
In the heat
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: Energy
 
PandaWarrior's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,155 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 6,306 given, 13,250 received



treydog999 View Post
I am having a bit of a conundrum. especially because of 1 lot trade. I know people say scale out with multiple lots, which does have its own pros and cons. But this situation happens to me pretty much on a daily basis and it applys to anyone who does AIAO.

You take a trade and you are in the green. say your stop is 15 ticks and target is 30 ticks. When do you start trailing your stop? if at all?

Now lets take this a step further, your 3 ticks from hitting your target, where is your stop? Is it still at a full stop? So you're risking 27 on paper + 15 actualized so 42 Net to gain 3? or even if you're at break even your risking 27 to gain 3? That math just does not make sense to me. However if i trail up aggressively i do cut myself off at the knees sometimes.

So say I take a 1:1 squeeze stop after we have made it 50% of our way to target. It could be any percentage but its easy to think of this way. If our target is 30 and we make it to 15 we now move stop to break even (Risking 15 for 15 more) When we get to 20 we move our stop up to + 10 (risking 10 to gain 10). When we are at 25 ( move stop up to +20 risking 5 to gain 5 more). Etc....

I have not done any math on this. i am actually quiet poor at looking at situational and combinatorial probabilities. But what is a good way to manage this risk? I mean it just gets me that if you do AIAO and never move your stop, you could be 1 tick from target and get a full stop out. Seems ridiculous to me. But also if you trail to aggressively you never actually get your full targets. THOUGHTS?

AIAO is mathematically superior to scaling out. But scaling in is better than AIAO in the sense that it allows you to lose small and win big. See my post about this here https://futures.io/trading-journals/12454-pandawarrior-chronicles-163.html#post332494

I think for me at this beginning stage of experimentation, it is far better emotionally to exit the trade at +27 than +20 which is better than +15 or +10 or BE on some sort of pull back. In other words, let the trade breath but as it gets closer and closer to target, trail it based on some premise. I am using two with trend bars back once it gets reasonably close and then one bar back until it either hits the target or the stop. However the caveat here is this: Whatever happens you must be emotionally ok with it. Even if it goes 100 ticks further in your favor, you have to realize that is what you set out to do and regardless of what "might have been" you are ok. This is the nature of trading. The constant unknown. Learn to embrace the uncertainty of it and let be.

good luck on this....once you get comfortable with whatever method you choose, I think your trading will dramatically improve beyond where it is now.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to PandaWarrior for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > All in All out Trade Management - how much breathing room?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crude trade room trippenlatin Commodities Futures Trading 13 January 13th, 2015 05:27 PM
TRADE MANAGEMENT gparkis Psychology and Money Management 1 August 28th, 2012 04:26 PM
Looking for partner to join trading room to get trade recommendations. sam1197 Commodities Futures Trading 11 September 22nd, 2011 07:00 PM
Trade management guidance needed.... tradersam Psychology and Money Management 14 June 10th, 2011 11:20 AM
Anyone want to get on skype and trade the CL together/or is their a room already? skyfly Traders Hideout 5 May 20th, 2011 04:19 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:33 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-16 in 0.16 seconds with 19 queries on phoenix via your IP 23.22.136.56