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Time to Give Up


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Time to Give Up

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  #301 (permalink)
san antonio, tex
 
 
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On investment analysts, stock pickers, and hot mutual fund managers, " it's a coin flipping contest, if you have 50 people someone is always going to come up heads a few times in a row.", Jack Bogle, Vanguard Funds.

What amazes me is whenever someone makes an emphatic prediction/recommendation, it is always wrong. It is the "it is too obvious to true/correct/right" rule.

I always wanted to come up with a computerized strategy that would switch between what worked to what didn't work, because what worked in the past doesn't work in the future. But the MACD divergence from price seems to be consistent. I mena where you draw lines between lowest lows, or highest highs of the MACD/awesome oscillator/Elliot wave oscillator (Bill Williams) , and when the lines don't follow price, either buy for a positive slope line, or sell if negative.

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  #302 (permalink)
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@Blash Ron am going to address this to you...lol if address it to someone else would get bashed.

too many concentrate seemingly on demanding proof that success in trading is a reality?...whether they want to see xxx pts/ticks...etc. however truth is multi-dimensional and so is trading. the game of trading is understood by self study and its roots have never changed....whether it be electronic stock trading...to actual trading in scrap steel commodity, iron ore, etc. To the unknown or unaware it will always be a mystery if $s or actual money can be made. infact electronic trading is complex but still very simple for the educated who has taught himself/herself to understand what moves price.

also why would someone divulge their statements or trade style. It is with only great pursue one may be able to find someone who can really impart or willing to impart their education. what can one give in return to such a person. in my view nothing...as they would not impart for any price. however for the demanding and proof begotten person ..they would never realize that. Will some of the most successful people in any vocation or trading itself show how they make their bread and butter. Lol never......they may write a Book

so many struggle to make 1pt...& want proof of a 10..100 or more. lol...even if someone showed them ..i cannot for sure....but there are definite others who could and will not. all numbers or more are possible with just single contracts. Just because x trader makes consistent xxx pts....another aspiring trader cannot make it even if they are sitting next to the person making xxx. this is something people cannot fathom. lol but its true.

also i see....that one fundamental flaw in thinking. It takes one approx 16yr of education and much more training's, etc to find a decent job which is much less paying than what a good trader might be making. Now the twist. Someone aspiring to be a trader wants to crack the oldest art in history with a few books/some indicators. Is that really possible especially when there are so many nuances. Deep introspection is needed is what i always felt. The urge to understand what drives price and how it really happens. now...if you really think hard...that 16yrs of education can be done in 2 or 3 if there is urge and passion. similar in anything in life. trading maybe even less....but it still takes time/commitment/dedication/willingness to pay for mistakes & a whole lot more which is for one to figure. And fundamentally understand how to read price.

anyways cheers....did not mean to bore on a friday. maybe time to catch a drink

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  #303 (permalink)
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paps View Post
@Blash

also why would someone divulge their statements or trade style.

When I made +$3000 on a t bond spread that I held over a weekend, I showed everyone my statement. It wasn't my trade, it was from Jim Gartman. To answer your question, I "divulged my statements" out of pride, to show off, impress others". Maybe that's just me.

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  #304 (permalink)
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paps View Post
@Blash

so many struggle to make 1pt...& w

Yes, that is me. Give me 10 recommendations, 8 which are profitable , I posses the skill the pick the 2 losers. Give me a useful indicator, unbeatable strategy, and I still can make it lose. Then I review the signals and prove that the indicator should of been profitable.

It's like betting on horses and going out with women. My horses are slow, but my women are fast.

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  #305 (permalink)
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guys my comments were for @Blash. Nothing directed towards anyone.

The whole point of this thread is to give up or not. Giving up has never been an option for me. Thats all. It has always been a personal choice for which I had to also pay my dues.... but there is always light on the other end....if someone makes it thru the Dark tunnel has been my philosophy in life.

Nothing more ....nothing less....... who is market to tell me if i have to give up. I respect the market... but its my will too.

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  #306 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
What about the guys who are doing things right?

- Only trading with money they can afford to lose
- Open and honest with their spouse, kids
- Steady income outside of trading that is more than sufficient to cover all life expenses while learning to trade
- Realistic expectations, knows that is likely to lose for a long time before starting to win, part of education
- Spends all of his time on research, homework, statistics, and review -- and not on indicators or trading rooms
- Creates accountability with a journal and his support network of trading friends, and his spouse

List continues.

For these guys, this thread does not apply. In fact, for these guys, they should be applauded for their conservative approach instead of thrill seeking holy grail fixation.

Mike

Thanks Mike. I belong to this category. Thank for the forum.

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  #307 (permalink)
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“To be a great champion you must believe you are the best. If you’re not, pretend you are.”
Muhammad Ali

I was at the first Ali v Frazier fight.

When Frazier got tired of the rope-a-dope he grabbed both of Ali's hands and dragged him into the center of the ring.
At round 11 Frazier knocked Ali down but they never ruled it a knockdown.

Frazier won. It was the only fight I ever bet on -- I bet on Frazier.

But you could tell after that Ali would come back. He did not quit--until a few weeks ago.

I think as traders on a screen, that we never see this as a battle, just chart stuff and indicators flashing by.

I started on the NYSE floor where you could SEE your opponent.

Perhaps it would be better if a trader thought before hitting that send key that you might be betting against Goldman Sachs.

TB

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  #308 (permalink)
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TheBenefactor View Post
...I started on the NYSE floor where you could SEE your opponent.

Perhaps it would be better if a trader thought before hitting that send key that you might be betting against Goldman Sachs.

TB

Oh my. That right there is a problem, methinks. Why do we all think that everyone else on the other side of the screen is an enemy? What opponent?

When you look at your charts and DOMs and flashes of trades on your T&S windows or whatever, why are they the " enemy?" I don't know where I am going with this thought, but it's going to a place where we can all be profitable, without becoming "enemies" with anyone. There is a reason we all want more liquidity in the markets we trade...Because it gives the potential for more profits. But "enemies"? That is too harsh.

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  #309 (permalink)
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HoopyTrading View Post
When you look at your charts and DOMs and flashes of trades on your T&S windows or whatever, why are they the " enemy?"

You are trading against an algorithm running in a server.

Only time there is an actual trader on the other side is over a huge order.

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  #310 (permalink)
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suko View Post
You are trading against an algorithm running in a server.

Only time there is an actual trader on the other side is over a huge order.

In my mind, trading is not a battle. It is not a war to be fought and then won or lost against an adversary. Whether it be a human avatar or a silicon avatar.

I cannot, in my head, compartmentalize it that way. It is counter-productive for me to do so.

Mr. Suko, if that is the way you need to see it, then so be it. I do not follow that path.

Good hunting. :-)

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  #311 (permalink)
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HoopyTrading View Post
In my mind, trading is not a battle. It is not a war to be fought and then won or lost against an adversary. Whether it be a human avatar or a silicon avatar.

I cannot, in my head, compartmentalize it that way. It is counter-productive for me to do so.

Mr. Suko, if that is the way you need to see it, then so be it. I do not follow that path.

Good hunting. :-)

Call the server "Robocop" if you like.

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  #312 (permalink)
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Maybe I can explain the slight difference in the view I have acquired.

It seems to me that on one hand we can all profit together, theoretically, by buying the shares of a good stock. The company produces a great line of products, makes more and more money year after year and we all share in the happy returns. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Over the last 10 years I have traded mainly futures contracts (stock index and crude oil). There too, theoretically, if I produce crude oil and I am afraid that crude I need to sell in December will face lower prices, I can sell that contract today. And if you run an airline and are afraid that prices will rise you can buy that contract from me.

No one gets hurt. We locked in an acceptable price.

But lots of times one contract will be formed by two speculators. In that case it is a zero sum game. If I guess long and you guess short, next month, one of us is gonna lose. You hope it is me--LOL.

In my firm I have worked with large speculators and large commercials. Many many of these people are predatory. I know one person who will tell you, "When you trade against me, I want you to lose your house and give me your childrens' college tuition."

Wall Street may not be all cut throat, but if one expects it to be a ride on "It's a small world" that might be a bit too gentle. A great trader is as competitive as Peyton Manning meeting Tom Brady. They might not hate each other but they would hate to lose to anyone.

TB

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  #313 (permalink)
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In my years of doing this, the clear enemy is myself, all my bad habits and tendencies are magnified in trading, and a lot of the struggle is to overcome those. Otherwise I am just trading against levels. An algo may bludgeon the order book to run stops but I have to be aware of that in the first place, I generally account for that in my trading plan and place orders where stops would be instead of where I wanted to put them originally

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  #314 (permalink)
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TheBenefactor View Post
Maybe I can explain the slight difference in the view I have acquired.

It seems to me that on one hand we can all profit together, theoretically, by buying the shares of a good stock. The company produces a great line of products, makes more and more money year after year and we all share in the happy returns. A rising tide lifts all boats.

Over the last 10 years I have traded mainly futures contracts (stock index and crude oil). There too, theoretically, if I produce crude oil and I am afraid that crude I need to sell in December will face lower prices, I can sell that contract today. And if you run an airline and are afraid that prices will rise you can buy that contract from me.

No one gets hurt. We locked in an acceptable price.

But lots of times one contract will be formed by two speculators. In that case it is a zero sum game. If I guess long and you guess short, next month, one of us is gonna lose. You hope it is me--LOL.

In my firm I have worked with large speculators and large commercials. Many many of these people are predatory. I know one person who will tell you, "When you trade against me, I want you to lose your house and give me your childrens' college tuition."

Wall Street may not be all cut throat, but if one expects it to be a ride on "It's a small world" that might be a bit too gentle. A great trader is as competitive as Peyton Manning meeting Tom Brady. They might not hate each other but they would hate to lose to anyone.

TB

I um, well...I just dunno. I don't feel it needs to feel like it is cut-throat. After all, you do not know who you are trading with. As long as you get your orders filled, who cares who fulfilled your trade agreement on the other end?

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  #315 (permalink)
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I think that control emotions is the hardest part of trading.

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  #316 (permalink)
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Japhro View Post
In my years of doing this, the clear enemy is myself, all my bad habits and tendencies are magnified in trading, and a lot of the struggle is to overcome those.

This is profoundly true. Trading is an instrument of personal change.

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  #317 (permalink)
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I hate to be the old man who is bitter and angry at life -- LOL

I am not. I made tons of money on Wall Street and at 67 still enjoy trading although I like looking at palm trees outside my home (and occasional alligators that eat people) than shoveling snow in Brooklyn.

Also, I would love to tell stories -- out of school.

I worked in the industry. I have seen how fellow traders made millions. I could write a book.

My problem is that if I started naming specific examples of how some trade, and since most of my friends who come to visit come from the NYSE or the CME I wouldn't have many friends left.

My purpose in trying to "give back" a little is that although an individual can not maintain the advantage that the institutions and smart money have there are a number of things that they can do.

It is sad to see a person read a book, study the market for a month in a chat room and think they can destroy the Big Boys.

If all the people vending trading stuff on the internet were that good, we would not be faced with the same numbers we faced in 1980 --- 90% of futures traders still lose.

There are of course a few people I know who do OK trading just from home. There is this person in my neighborhood who has only a $10,000 account and part time he has been able to produce a 40% return on his trading money over the last 5 years. Pretty impressive.


Happy fourth all.

TB

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  #318 (permalink)
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TheBenefactor View Post
I hate to be the old man who is bitter and angry at life -- LOL

I am not. I made tons of money on Wall Street and at 67 still enjoy trading although I like looking at palm trees outside my home (and occasional alligators that eat people) than shoveling snow in Brooklyn.

Also, I would love to tell stories -- out of school.

I worked in the industry. I have seen how fellow traders made millions. I could write a book.

My problem is that if I started naming specific examples of how some trade, and since most of my friends who come to visit come from the NYSE or the CME I wouldn't have many friends left.

My purpose in trying to "give back" a little is that although an individual can not maintain the advantage that the institutions and smart money have there are a number of things that they can do.

It is sad to see a person read a book, study the market for a month in a chat room and think they can destroy the Big Boys.

If all the people vending trading stuff on the internet were that good, we would not be faced with the same numbers we faced in 1980 --- 90% of futures traders still lose.

There are of course a few people I know who do OK trading just from home. There is this person in my neighborhood who has only a $10,000 account and part time he has been able to produce a 40% return on his trading money over the last 5 years. Pretty impressive.


Happy fourth all.

TB

Hi TB - Happy 4th

Personally I don't believe that any sensible retail-sized trader thinks they can take on the 'Big Boys'.

I believe retail and institutional traders are two very distinct set of groups of people who happen to cross paths.

I believe particularly that skilled retail traders can perhaps take advantage of the market movements caused by institutional and hedge-fund traders and ride some of the moves as a result but that's pretty much it.

In a way I see the market a bit like that agar.io game, where generall the biggest fish can eat all the others. The parallel I see in trading is that I believe that, generally speaking, the person with the biggest account usually wins (they must be able to know what they are doing of course).

For instance, when there are some setups like 'traders getting trapped into an iceberg order', clearly that iceberg absorption won't be able to go on forever, but if the account generating the iceberg is the biggest one at that point in time, chances are they will make money as other people will give up sooner than they will.

So it is a game of size, wouldn't you say.

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  #319 (permalink)
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TheBenefactor View Post
Maybe I can explain the slight difference in the view I have acquired.



It seems to me that on one hand we can all profit together, theoretically, by buying the shares of a good stock. The company produces a great line of products, makes more and more money year after year and we all share in the happy returns. A rising tide lifts all boats.



Over the last 10 years I have traded mainly futures contracts (stock index and crude oil). There too, theoretically, if I produce crude oil and I am afraid that crude I need to sell in December will face lower prices, I can sell that contract today. And if you run an airline and are afraid that prices will rise you can buy that contract from me.



No one gets hurt. We locked in an acceptable price.



But lots of times one contract will be formed by two speculators. In that case it is a zero sum game. If I guess long and you guess short, next month, one of us is gonna lose. You hope it is me--LOL.



In my firm I have worked with large speculators and large commercials. Many many of these people are predatory. I know one person who will tell you, "When you trade against me, I want you to lose your house and give me your childrens' college tuition."



Wall Street may not be all cut throat, but if one expects it to be a ride on "It's a small world" that might be a bit too gentle. A great trader is as competitive as Peyton Manning meeting Tom Brady. They might not hate each other but they would hate to lose to anyone.



TB




HoopyTrading View Post
I um, well...I just dunno. I don't feel it needs to feel like it is cut-throat. After all, you do not know who you are trading with. As long as you get your orders filled, who cares who fulfilled your trade agreement on the other end?


I absolutely feel this thread needs a new name....lol. "Time to plan properly"

Most, the vast majority, have next to no idea how to run this business. If they even consider it as such. Hence why so many fail. True for most businesses unfortunately. I confidently say this from personal experience. I used to be among the poorly planned. Cost me $53k.

Anyway back to the post I had planned...

I choose this belief structure: (by the way belief is everything, it creates your reality... Don't believe me?..... You just proved my point ....thanks)

The futures market's exist to hedge risk. Hedging entities include in part corporations. They might have a need for copper as part of their manufacturing so they use the copper futures market to lock in a price for the copper they will be using so they can plan better. Same goes for financial companies like insurance providers hedging risk they acquire from conducting business using index futures. But the futures market can't fully operate with hedgers alone. The speculator fills the role opposite the hedger.

Nothing in this contingent relative world is perfect. Businesses will create revenue AND expenditures, costs, expenses. So in plain english some trades will not work and others will. It doesn't matter what we want to happen, but it's a given businesses want to create revenue. It matters what we have planned for and what we believe.

Ron





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  #320 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Hi TB - Happy 4th



Personally I don't believe that any sensible retail-sized trader thinks they can take on the 'Big Boys'.



I believe retail and institutional traders are two very distinct set of groups of people who happen to cross paths.



I believe particularly that skilled retail traders can perhaps take advantage of the market movements caused by institutional and hedge-fund traders and ride some of the moves as a result but that's pretty much it.



In a way I see the market a bit like that agar.io game, where generall the biggest fish can eat all the others. The parallel I see in trading is that I believe that, generally speaking, the person with the biggest account usually wins (they must be able to know what they are doing of course).



For instance, when there are some setups like 'traders getting trapped into an iceberg order', clearly that iceberg absorption won't be able to go on forever, but if the account generating the iceberg is the biggest one at that point in time, chances are they will make money as other people will give up sooner than they will.



So it is a game of size, wouldn't you say.



Just as height is an advantage in the NBA and long hair is in a beauty pageant (trying hard here to broaden my analogies...lol) account size is in trading. Doesn't mean you can't win the pageant with short hair or score many points being short.... But it might be that much harder.

Ron


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  #321 (permalink)
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TheBenefactor View Post

My purpose in trying to "give back" a little is that although an individual can not maintain the advantage that the institutions and smart money have there are a number of things that they can do.

It is sad to see a person read a book, study the market for a month in a chat room and think they can destroy the Big Boys.


TB

I strongly disagree with the statement that we are playing against the "big boys".

Imagine that you are the manager of a several B$ fund and you have decided that you should be short oil. Over the next 2 week for example your algo program will build you a short position of several thousands contracts breaking them in small trades to emulate the vwap for example.
Imagine that as a small retail trader I am the counterpart of one your orders because I think that oil will be up 50T by the end of the day. Who win who lose? None. You provide me with liquidity and I provide you with liquidity. We have not the same time frame and not the same objective. I am not in competition with you. The only in competition with you is in that case the other fund manager who as "predicted" that oil is up and who is buying thousand of contract. One of you must lose.

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  #322 (permalink)
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Without hard statistics the brain will play tricks with what you see among traders. There will always be a big boy who uses martingale betting strategies throwing more and more money at the market and seeming to always come out on top. What you don't see is all the big boys who've turned into little boys continuing to do this.

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  #323 (permalink)
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Even when I was young in the 80's the stories of "big guys" organizing a squeeze of a market to make all the small guys bleed already belonged to the past. I heard thing like that in sugar, cocoa etc but it was almost before I was born...

With today liquidity and HTF and so many different funds with some many time frames and objectives, squeezing a market would be at least a suicide. The only "natural" squeeze that we can observe are during crash when most of the participants have the time horizon and the same direction.

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  #324 (permalink)
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Okina View Post
Even when I was young in the 80's the stories of "big guys" organizing a squeeze of a market to make all the small guys bleed already belonged to the past. I heard thing like that in sugar, cocoa etc but it was almost before I was born...

With today liquidity and HTF and so many different funds with some many time frames and objectives, squeezing a market would be at least a suicide. The only "natural" squeeze that we can observe are during crash when most of the participants have the time horizon and the same direction.

I'm not sure whether the squeeze still exists in the way you defined them Okina, but I believe that certain setups talking advantage of spoofing (for instance) to trick some traders to buy/sell do take place to this day.

The same goes for certain iceberg orders which are triggered with the purpose to absorbe a certain number of buy/sell orders and then attempt to over-run them in the opposite direction.

Probably doesn't happen as much in thinner markets but I do believe it does in thicker ones (e.g. Stoxx 50, ES, Treasuries)

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Markets will be nudged about depending on how busy they are.

No-one can stop a one-way market but they can nudge around a quiet market.

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DionysusToast View Post
Markets will be nudged about depending on how busy they are.

No-one can stop a one-way market but they can nudge around a quiet market.

Yes, my point exactly.

Suppose a seasoned hedge fund manager who has the account capacity to trade 2,000 lots at a time has been watching the Order Flow for his preferred market for a few hours and has concluded that, for the time being, he is the biggest player in there.

Suppose the market conditions are favourable, i.e. the market is not 'roaring' in one direction.

Let's say now the market has reached an area where some sort of reaction is expected.

Would the hedge fund manager not be at an advantage knowing he can nudge the market around?

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xplorer View Post
Yes, my point exactly.

Suppose a seasoned hedge fund manager who has the account capacity to trade 2,000 lots at a time has been watching the Order Flow for his preferred market for a few hours and has concluded that, for the time being, he is the biggest player in there.

Suppose the market conditions are favourable, i.e. the market is not 'roaring' in one direction.

Let's say now the market has reached an area where some sort of reaction is expected.

Would the hedge fund manager not be at an advantage knowing he can nudge the market around?

Yes - but at that point it wouldn't be a one way market.

That is what the "flip" is - at a key level - trying to nudge out both reversal and breakout traders.

That's why I never trade key levels.

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you have to nudge the market from a few different correlated instruments at once otherwise there are algos out there that will eat any amount of volume when they check that it's just one player going gung-ho on one instrument.

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Size can actually be a pretty big hindrance. Believe me, the "big boys" may have a lot of resources at their disposal but their sheer size makes them much less agile than odd-lot traders like you or me. Many of the systems and techniques employed by successful retail traders could never be used by large institutional players.

Consider a portfolio manager for a large hedge fund; would he be able to put up sufficient percentage returns on a multi-billion dollar book by scalping futures markets for a few ticks here and there? Especially in an exchange-traded market where every trade immediately hits the tape? No way. He'd be like a cow in piranha-infested waters. You might be able to quickly scalp 50 or 100 lots in the most liquid markets like ES, ZN, or CL but anything much bigger than that will leave a large enough footprint to get preyed upon by more agile scalpers, prop shops and HFTs. Indeed there are substantial liquidity costs associated with trading size, and these liquidity costs generally force all of the so-called big boys to trade much bigger moves and longer time-horizons than the typical scalper or day-trader.

I'll tell you all a little story about one of these big boys, a well-known and seasoned veteran of the bond markets who recently had to confront the "time to give up" question himself.

Most of the discussion thus far has concerned itself with independent retail traders going through some early and maybe persistent struggles when first getting started. Many of these traders will give up long before ever achieving any success. But what about those who have seen success, made solid careers out of trading, but then one day lost their edge?

Oh it happens.

A number of years ago I got to know a guy who had led a very long and successful Wall Street career. He had been head of government bond trading at more than one primary dealer; he had traded prop at Goldman for years during the pre-IPO days of the 1990s; he had later run a large and very successful global-macro book for another major financial firm. In short, he'd built an exemplary career with an excellent long-term track record and was very highly respected in his field. Then a few years ago he accepted an offer from a large global-macro hedge fund to run a $300mm book for them.

And suddenly he started to struggle.

Maybe the pace was different. Maybe his execution was suffering from decreased liquidity (trading over the counter interest rate derivatives in a post Dodd-Frank environment). Maybe his many years of insight were no longer enough to compete with the new relative value pricing models a lot of his competitors were using. Maybe the general psychology of rates trading had changed beyond his own comprehension in the era of QE and central-bank bond-market manipulation. Maybe it was all of these things. Maybe it was none of them, and he was just getting old...

After a pretty dismal first couple of months at the new firm he had his capital allocation cut by more than half. And he continued to struggle. Loss of confidence and self-doubt crept in...

Finally, some 18 months into his new job, he was done.

He made that call. He decided to retire. Whatever edge he'd had, or thought he had, was gone. His confidence was gone. And he didn't have the time, energy, or inclination to start anew.

A lot of very successful traders eventually lose their edge. The financial markets and the entire world are constantly changing. New banking regulations or exchange rules are instituted; new technologies are introduced; new products enter the market; secular shifts in behaviors and psychologies occur; liquidity rises or falls - all of these things can destroy one trader's edge while at the same time presenting new opportunities for those who are willing and able to find them. But how will you know if it happens to you? And how well will you be able to adapt?

For a scalper, it might reveal itself quickly. A few bad days or weeks would probably be enough to warrant a serious pause and review, if not a total rethink. But what about a swing trader operating longer time frames? Some of the most legendary and successful investors in the macro world will often suffer monthly or even annual losses. When can they know if they've truly lost their edge, that things are truly different now, or if the roulette wheel simply just landed on red 26 times in a row?

This is a question all big macro and swing traders must wrestle with from time to time. How will they know? How will you know?

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  #330 (permalink)
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Was that you @Bladesmith ?

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Was that you @Bladesmith ?

No, I'm way too young and poor to retire. This was a guy I had gotten to know through a mutual friend in the industry, and whom I had actually hoped to work for before his and my circumstances both changed. I intentionally kept a few details vague in order to protect his anonymity, as he is practically a household name in certain circles.

All that said, I do have some personal experiences that, in one way or another, relate to his own.

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Bladesmith View Post
...or if the roulette wheel simply just landed on red 26 times in a row?...

This is a question all big macro and swing traders must wrestle with from time to time. How will they know? How will you know?

That question, and situation, I cannot abide. The roulette wheel NEVER lands on red 26 times in a row, IF ALL THINGS ON THE WHEEL ARE EQUAL. The pure probability of a perfect wheel landing red 26 times in a row is beyond lotto jackpot odd numbers, requiring a Knuth up-arrow to calculate.

There are stories of wheels lending themselves to landing more often than not on certain colors/numbers, but that had to do with imperfections in the wheel. (Red box widths being wider than black, etc.)

Remember, a perfect wheel has the same odds on each and every spin. The market is not a darn roulette wheel, because it is played with by humans, and humans are not perfect. We're not cyborgs. Trading is not a darn wheel of roulette.

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Hoopy, I mentioned the roulette wheel because a few pages back in this thread someone posted a link to an article describing that exact phenomenon. It's called the Gamblers Fallacy, or Monte Carlo fallacy. It speaks to those moments when a trader - with a proven system - suddenly has numerous consecutive losing trades and asks himself if it's just an improbable streak, or if the odds have, in fact, suddenly changed.

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Bladesmith View Post
Hoopy, I mentioned the roulette wheel because a few pages back in this thread someone posted a link to an article describing that exact phenomenon. It's called the Gamblers Fallacy, or Monte Carlo fallacy. It speaks to those moments when a trader - with a proven system - suddenly has numerous consecutive losing trades and asks himself if it's just an improbable streak, or if the odds have, in fact, suddenly changed.

Ahh. That is an interesting observation. I'll need to research the thread, because I have recently encountered something vaguely similar.

I never considered it "Gambler's Fallacy" though.

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HoopyTrading View Post
Ahh. That is an interesting observation. I'll need to research the thread, because I have recently encountered something vaguely similar.

I never considered it "Gambler's Fallacy" though.

In trading, it usually isn't. Like you, I don't believe in randomness. Every trade that hits the tape has intent.

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Bladesmith View Post
And suddenly he started to struggle.

Maybe the pace was different. Maybe his execution was suffering from decreased liquidity (trading over the counter interest rate derivatives in a post Dodd-Frank environment). Maybe his many years of insight were no longer enough to His confidence was gone. And he didn't have the time, energy, or inclination to start anew.

A lot of very successful traders eventually lose their edge. The financial markets and the entire world are constantly changing.

I am re-reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" and have just got to the part where Jesse shows up in New York and tries and fails at first to adapt his trading style from bucket shop to brokerage. He was fantastically successful trading bucket shops but he soon blows up his account trying to trade the NYSE live from the brokerage and has to borrow some money on a personal loan to go back and trade bucket shops again.

Once he builds up some trading capital he comes back to New York and tries and eventually succeeds at learning this new environment.

I think as his career advances he continually re-trains himself to adapt as the market changes. Not without a lot of pain.

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suko View Post
I am re-reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" and have just got to the part where Jesse shows up in New York and tries and fails at first to adapt his trading style from bucket shop to brokerage. He was fantastically successful trading bucket shops but he soon blows up his account trying to trade the NYSE live from the brokerage and has to borrow some money on a personal loan to go back and trade bucket shops again.

Once he builds up some trading capital he comes back to New York and tries and eventually succeeds at learning this new environment.

I think as his career advances he continually re-trains himself to adapt as the market changes. Not without a lot of pain.

Wow, you are reading that book also? There is a trader in my school who is reading that book as well, and mentions a bit about how the author doesn't use stops? The trader is from the 1930s or something? Small world.

I guess I should read that book.

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  #338 (permalink)
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Required reading. Two of my favorite quotes from that book, which certainly apply here:

“There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!”

“…fate does not let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill, knowing you have to pay it, no matter what the amount may be.”

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It's a book beloved of traders and one we should all go back and re-read every year or so. Because, as Jesse says, there is "nothing new under the sun."

They did not have stops in those days, and anyway there are traders these days who don't use them, either.

I think the striking thing about Jesse is that he was opposed to charts. They did not use charts when he started out, but later in his career when charting became widespread, he refused to go along. I think this is probably because he had always preferred to maintain price history in his head in his own way.

For that matter, there are traders that don't use charts today, too.

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suko View Post
It's a book beloved of traders and one we should all go back and re-read every year or so. Because, as Jesse says, there is "nothing new under the sun."

They did not have stops in those days, and anyway there are traders these days who don't use them, either.

I think the striking thing about Jesse is that he was opposed to charts. They did not use charts when he started out, but later in his career when charting became widespread, he refused to go along. I think this is probably because he had always preferred to maintain price history in his head in his own way.

For that matter, there are traders that don't use charts today, too.

Welp, now I have two books on my X-mas list..."Trading in the Zone", and now this "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator."


(Yes yes yes, I know I should have read "Trading in the Zone" a long time ago. No comments from the peanut gallery. I'm just backed-up on book reading, OK?)

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interesting how you all have these romantic ideas of trading because of Jesse Livermore...no stops, no charts, develop the the sixth sense for the markers....Here is a hard core reality: When the SEC (Securities and Exchnage Commissions) was established in 1934, Jesse started losing his fortune. Guess what that means? When he was asked to play fair...he lost.
He died broke, BTW.

We live a world of computerised trading, your trading skills are important, but your risk risk management will save you.

Dont be Jesse.

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mattz View Post
interesting how you all have these romantic ideas of trading because of Jesse Livermore...no stops, no charts, develop the the sixth sense for the markers....Here is a hard core reality: When the SEC (Securities and Exchnage Commissions) was established in 1934, Jesse started losing his fortune. Guess what that means? When he was asked to play fair...he lost.
He died broke, BTW.

We live a world of computerised trading, your trading skills are important, but your risk risk management will save you.

Dont be Jesse.

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Mattz, then how do you explain my trading journal? I use no stops, and I use intuition combined with a bit of techno analysis, to a degree. Please explain it, and why it WILL NOT WORK. I have been asking that since I started that thread. Nobody has ever answered the question. I need to know how, aside from the margin stop, the system may fail.

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HoopyTrading View Post
Mattz, then how do you explain my trading journal? I use no stops, and I use intuition combined with a bit of techno analysis, to a degree. Please explain it, and why it WILL NOT WORK. I have been asking that since I started that thread. Nobody has ever answered the question. I need to know how, aside from the margin stop, the system may fail.

You trade sim. You are not a real trader you're just pretending. Thus your questions, like your "trading results," are meaningless. When you want to be a real trader and be taken seriously, put some skin in the game.

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HoopyTrading View Post
Mattz, then how do you explain my trading journal? I use no stops, and I use intuition combined with a bit of techno analysis, to a degree. Please explain it, and why it WILL NOT WORK. I have been asking that since I started that thread. Nobody has ever answered the question. I need to know how, aside from the margin stop, that the system may fail.

You want me to explain your way of thinking by analyzing your thread? Sorry, this is not within my skills set.

Intuition is a very complex subject. But, it is a mechanism that makes you jump to conclusions and contsruct a story with very little facts.
When you have no skin in the game "paper trading" you tend to overlook a lot of noise in the market, chemical imbalances (emotions) and others factors do not come into play when just observing the markets.

When you trade real funds, day in and day out, you will need to contrust a different story with strong facts (technical and quantitative) and reach conclusions accordingly. Your intution then uses different factors than you use now.

Experienced traders "eat" every year guys who think they can make it with intuition.

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...When you trade real funds, day in and day out, you will need to contrust a different story with strong facts (technical and quantitative) and reach conclusions accordingly. Your intution then uses different factors than you use now.

Experienced traders "eat" every year guys who think they can make it with intuition...

That, sir, sounded and felt like a white-gloved slap challenge! Dear mattz, I accept your challenge, and shall endeavor to prove ye wrong, good sir! Have at you!

(mattz, I've been through the RL blender of using real funds, man. I am still working through the psychology of it all. It's been nearly a year now since that terrible day when I lost a huge chunk of change in the live market, with REAL MONEY. OMG! SOMEONE DID IT, THEY LOST MONEY IN REAL-LIFE!. We'll see.)

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Pariah Carey View Post
You trade sim. You are not a real trader you're just pretending. Thus your questions, like your "trading results," are meaningless. When you want to be a real trader and be taken seriously, put some skin in the game.

Hey, at least I am trying to play a hand, and am putting in effort. If you have real LIVE results to show, than please share them with the rest of us.

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HoopyTrading View Post
That, sir, sounded and felt like a white-gloved slap challenge! Dear mattz, I accept your challenge, and shall endeavor to prove ye wrong, good sir! Have at you!

(mattz, I've been through the RL blender of using real funds, man. I am still working through the psychology of it all. It's been nearly a year now since that terrible day. We'll see.)

Not at all.
I take no joy in challenges of this sort...it's your capital after all and I dont want you you experiment with it.
As a broker I share with you practical experience, because I talk to guys with vast experience that many (in my opinion) do not have access to.


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  #348 (permalink)
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By the way guys, I am not joking about my sheet. I am about to do this live. No fucking lie. (pardon my French Mr. Big Mike.) I am sick and tired of sim, and I need to get busy. I just need to get the hell out of this long-term GC short trade, do some analysis, and make it so next month. August, the month I lost my shit a year ago. Frak! I do not mean to be superstitious, but for frak's sake, I need to get over this hump.

I can FEEL it.

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Hey, at least I am trying to play a hand, and am putting in effort. If you have real LIVE results to show, than please share them with the rest of us.

Don't be mad at those who who have skin in the game and being truthful and honest. Sim is sim...it's nothing to do with reality regadeless of the effort. We get the idea that you need to start somewhere.

Guys who are honest chllange you, and those who you "dislike" may be your role models one day.
Can you name the nice teachers in your high school? LOL i did not think so.

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  #350 (permalink)
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Not at all.
I take no joy in challenges of this sort...it's your capital after all and I dont want you you experiment with it.
As a broker I share with you practical experience, because I talk to guys with vast experience that many do not have access to...

Yes, exactly. It is my capital. So if my system is working, who are you to tell me that it will not work with real money? I am not "experimenting" with anything. I have delved into the deepest shit of the CME you can possibly imagine, and have learned. I have learned about trading price limits, and delivery limits, and volatility limits and liquidity on forward months, delivery terms, settlement dates and parameters...

I even looked into getting my own Series 3 license, so I could do all this on my own through the CME direct.

Bollocks. I am not experimenting with my capital, mattz... I am exploring and expanding my life with it. How does one get "vast" experience with this sort of thing? By researching it, studying it, and never giving up. And I will NEVER give up! Never. If I can't make this work, I'm useless and fubar. So this is where my energy goes now.

Thank you mattz for your input.

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  #351 (permalink)
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By the way mattz, the white-gloved slap thing was kind of a joke. Do you not know of the white-glove slap thingy? It's funny in a way. *slap slap*

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Trade small.

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HoopyTrading View Post
Hey, at least I am trying to play a hand, and am putting in effort. If you have real LIVE results to show, than please share them with the rest of us.

FYI, @Pariah Carey has been sharing his live results for well over a year, in good times and bad, in his journal https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/31642-program.html. I realize that this journal is in the Elite section and is not available to casual readers of this forum, but one should not make assumptions about things you don't know about.


HoopyTrading View Post
By the way guys, I am not joking about my sheet. I am about to do this live. No fucking lie. (pardon my French Mr. Big Mike.) I am sick and tired of sim, and I need to get busy. I just need to get the hell out of this long-term GC short trade, do some analysis, and make it so next month. August, the month I lost my shit a year ago. Frak! I do not mean to be superstitious, but for frak's sake, I need to get over this hump.

I can FEEL it.

That is great. So go ahead and do it. Until you do, live is live, and SIM is SIM. There is nothing at all wrong with SIM, but it is practice. It is not trading.


mattz View Post
Don't be mad at those who who have skin in the game and being truthful and honest. Sim is sim...it's nothing to do with reality regadeless of the effort. We get the idea that you need to start somewhere.

Guys who are honest chllange you, and those who you "dislike" may be your role models one day.
Can you name the nice teachers in your high school? LOL i did not think so.

It is understandable that you don't like this message, but it is not reasonable to just reject it. It comes from real experience. The best advice is to pay it some attention.

A last point: this thread was started by @Big Mike to give a place for those who realize that they may need to give up the dream of trading to say so. This is a brave and honest statement, when it is the truth. There is no point for others to come in to say how great they are. It has a different purpose.

If you succeed, everyone will applaud and support you. If you have difficulty, you will still get the support, from all those who have been there and have struggled too. But tone down the boasting about how great you will be, once you go live. Even once you have become a great success, it would not ever be appropriate, and certainly not here.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post

A last point: this thread was started by @Big Mike to give a place for those who realize that they may need to give up the dream of trading to say so.

Bob.

Let's back this up to the Livermore story.

There are a lot of positive examples and negative examples from the book.

On the negative side, he traded too big from the very first day.

On the positive side, he faced a lot of obstacles from the beginning. He actually got banned from trading and had to go to another town. Then he blew up his account and had to take as step back and go out of town.

Obstinate refusal to be give up in the face of spectacular failure after failure all the way to the end of his career.

Grit.

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Let's back this up to the Livermore story.

There are a lot of positive examples and negative examples from the book.

On the negative side, he traded too big from the very first day.

On the positive side, he faced a lot of obstacles from the beginning. He actually got banned from trading and had to go to another town. Then he blew up his account and had to take as step back and go out of town.

Obstinate refusal to be give up in the face of spectacular failure after failure all the way to the end of his career.

Grit.

The big lesson is IMO how he ended....suicide.

He was making and losing and making and losing millions and 1930"s millions could be translated in hundreds of millions of today.

He was not a trader but a gambler and his addiction was not winning but losing. I partially read the book but it made me sad for him and I stopped reading it.

Nothing positive in this story except a good lesson maybe.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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bobwest View Post
FYI, @Pariah Carey has been sharing his live results for well over a year, in good times and bad, in his journal https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/31642-program.html. I realize that this journal is in the Elite section and is not available to casual readers of this forum, but one should not make assumptions about things you don't know about.



That is great. So go ahead and do it. Until you do, live is live, and SIM is SIM. There is nothing at all wrong with SIM, but it is practice. It is not trading.



It is understandable that you don't like this message, but it is not reasonable to just reject it. It comes from real experience. The best advice is to pay it some attention.

A last point: this thread was started by @Big Mike to give a place for those who realize that they may need to give up the dream of trading to say so. This is a brave and honest statement, when it is the truth. There is no point for others to come in to say how great they are. It has a different purpose.

If you succeed, everyone will applaud and support you. If you have difficulty, you will still get the support, from all those who have been there and have struggled too. But tone down the boasting about how great you will be, once you go live. Even once you have become a great success, it would not ever be appropriate, and certainly not here.

Bob.

Hey Bob..agree. SIM will be SIM unless someone trades of SIM exact the same way they do in live. Else SIM is a waste of time and has ZERO value.

Trading is a personal thing..... good traders will never boast that too on a public forum. The one's who do...congrats!!. A truly successful trader is actually devoid of emotion and may not find it necessary to express it on meaningless counter productive arguments. Anyways one's personal account balance will be worthy if one is good.... it makes zero sense to go announce one's bank balance to the world. Lol...with good friends or buddies one may share a thing here or there about markets & how they read markets...but i dont think it will ever be from a boasting standpoint. As the more cocky one gets the next slap can land on his face. Does not go to say that successful traders do not have ego...they do but it's to use it to their advantage.

anyways good that some share their good and bads of trading. Salute that. But there are many Amazing traders who are silent spectators and especially since they do not feel the need to justify or get into endless squabbles about proving their stuff..& why should they as it is not necessary ......i know for a certainty as i have one such individual as a mentor who taught me trading101. One of the most brilliant the world has seen imho. so good traders will not share & have no reason to do so. If they do it is only for pay back in some form.....nothing more...nothing less. And they will not do it for the sake of money for sure or expensive education.

i know for certain with hard work and application.... & like everything in life a lil bit of luck or the contact with the correct person.... anything is achievable......it's a limitless world

anyways cheers and gl to all. may all seek their objectives

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mattz View Post
interesting how you all have these romantic ideas of trading because of Jesse Livermore...no stops, no charts, develop the the sixth sense for the markers....

The book ain't gospel, but it sure is an interesting read

@mattz - would love to hear your take on my question earlier about once successful traders who lose their edge. Given where you sit, I'd guess you've seen it happen

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Bladesmith View Post
The book ain't gospel, but it sure is an interesting read

@mattz - would love to hear your take on my question earlier about once successful traders who lose their edge. Given where you sit, I'd guess you've seen it happen

Could you please be very specific about what you need to know about traders losing their edge(?)
Would be more than happy to answer.

Matt Z
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suko View Post
Let's back this up to the Livermore story.

There are a lot of positive examples and negative examples from the book.

On the negative side, he traded too big from the very first day.

On the positive side, he faced a lot of obstacles from the beginning. He actually got banned from trading and had to go to another town. Then he blew up his account and had to take as step back and go out of town.

Obstinate refusal to be give up in the face of spectacular failure after failure all the way to the end of his career.

Grit.


Okina View Post
The big lesson is IMO how he ended....suicide.

He was making and losing and making and losing millions and 1930"s millions could be translated in hundreds of millions of today.

He was not a trader but a gambler and his addiction was not winning but losing. I partially read the book but it made me sad for him and I stopped reading it.

Nothing positive in this story except a good lesson maybe.

For whatever it's worth, I did like the book. And grit certainly is good.

We have to realize that it was a fictionalized account, written by Lefevre, a journalist at the time (it is sometimes said to be an autobiography under a pen name, but it was not ), originally as a series of 12 articles in The Saturday Evening Post. This was a time when Livermore was a celebrity, and it does paint him in a very good light. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edwin_Lef%C3%A8vre )

Can we say whether he was a good or a bad trader? Who knows, really. He went up and down, and the market changed on him, as it does. It appears he did not adapt to that, which does not detract from his accomplishments, but it is also part of the real story.

He did not actually die broke; he was no longer successful in the market, and had lost the huge sums he once had, and gone into bankruptcy. But he had stashed away a significant amount of money in trusts. He also may have had clinical depression, which may have been a factor in his suicide. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Lauriston_Livermore#Suicide )

In the end, I agree more with @mattz about the romanticizing of Livermore. The book is inspiring, which is fine, but it is not a blueprint for success, nor was his career, overall. I also have to say that the serious and heavy betting on the market going his way sounds great when it was working, but it did not serve him well in the end. So think @Okina has said it well overall.

Just my thoughts; I don't want to detract from anyone's hero, but this is all part of the real picture, in its good and bad parts.

Bob.

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mattz View Post
Could you please be very specific about what you need to know about traders losing their edge(?)
Would be more than happy to answer.

Thanks mattz. I'm just curious if there might be certain personality traits or good habits that allow some traders to more readily identify and adapt to change than others. I shared a story earlier (post #329) about a trader who, after years of success, somehow lost his edge and ultimately chose to retire. Floor traders transitioning to electronic trading provide another interesting case study: why were some successful, while others failed?

I'm not looking for answers, per se, as every trader is unique and must ultimately answer these questions for himself. That said, it might be instructive to learn from the experiences and observations of others.

Thanks again to all who have contributed to this discussion.

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bobwest View Post
And grit certainly is good. ...

I also have to say that the serious and heavy betting on the market going his way sounds great when it was working, but it did not serve him well in the end.

In Livermore's case, was it true grit? Or just sheer stubbornness with the occasional bit of dumb luck thrown in?


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Bladesmith View Post
In Livermore's case, was it true grit? Or just sheer stubbornness with the occasional bit of dumb luck thrown in?


Hey, I remember this metaphor from something an Indian guru wrote back in the God-knows-when past...

It goes like this...

Two frogs fell into a bucket of milk (or cream). They both kept paddling and paddling to try to escape the bucket. The first frog eventually said "It's no use", gave up paddling and sank into the milk and drowned. But the second frog had a very stern dedication, to not give up trying. Eventually, right at the end of his rope, his constant paddling of the milk had churned the milk into butter, where he was able to find solid purchase and hop his way to freedom, out of the bucket.

There have been times I have felt like that first frog, but I am holding onto the idea of being the second frog.

Is that stubbornness, or true grit? Not sure. Couldn't it be a bit of both?

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bobwest View Post
It is understandable that you don't like this message, but it is not reasonable to just reject it. It comes from real experience. The best advice is to pay it some attention.

Bob, I really appreciate it. But, I find that both me and you are talking to the wall.
I have ZERO intention of justifying my position for being honest, and trying to help the right way. I earn my living from other's taking risks, and I never forget it. So I want to stir people in the right direction as much as I can.
If they choose to come back with motivational nonsense of "I will never give up" and base their trading on "intuition", they can go for it. We tried.

I wish you an awesome weekend and thank you for always trying to make peace in the house. I will hope you become a moderator one day. You deserve it!

Have a good weekend.

Matt Z
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mattz View Post
I will hope you become a moderator one day. You deserve it!

Have a good weekend.

Thank you. However, I am not crazy.

Have a good weekend, too.

Bob.

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Thank you. However, I am not crazy.

Have a good weekend, too.

Bob.

You are not. But you have a good spirit even if you put people in their place.

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Bladesmith View Post
Thanks mattz. I'm just curious if there might be certain personality traits or good habits that allow some traders to more readily identify and adapt to change than others. I shared a story earlier (post #329) about a trader who, after years of success, somehow lost his edge and ultimately chose to retire. Floor traders transitioning to electronic trading provide another interesting case study: why were some successful, while others failed?

I'm not looking for answers, per se, as every trader is unique and must ultimately answer these questions for himself. That said, it might be instructive to learn from the experiences and observations of others.

Thanks again to all who have contributed to this discussion.

You are most welcome and thank you for your question. I would have to admit that this is one of the better questions I was asked, and also well challenging. I appreciate the fact that you recognize that there is no right answer, and everyone would answer according to their experience and opinion. Also, I do not want to pass judgement on those who have walked away from trading after trading for many years because there is a time and place for everything in our lives.

As far as traits, I would say traders who are open minded and have strong observational skills will most likely to exceed those who have a belief system about trading that is engraved in stone as far as risk and reward. Markets go through different volatility, ranges and structure that traders need be observant of. However, each period may be of a certain time period, some may be of weeks and some maybe of years. Therefore, the challenge that you face, is when to tweak and when to suffer through a drawdown. The drawdowns are the hardest part that any trader faces psychologically because at that point you do not know whether your system is broken or you just have to wait for the markets to come back to their natural state of your system. The key is to know your system well ahead of trading: its advantages, strengths and during what times it would suffer.

I do not think that good systems "break", but rather they may go through though periods that have not shown in historical testing. Good traders know how to tweak certain technicals based on some element, ATR for example.

I am going to tell you something that some may not believe but I have seen systems/methods that have bad elements, yet produce positive results for years. I have seen systems with "bad" risk/reward, systems that use way too much leverage, systems that are very complex with many components, yet produce results for many years. Eventually, these systems fail and capital blows out. So not everyone that walks away is someone who lost its edge, it could be someone who did not have it well from day one. Remember the NASDAQ bubble? everyone thought that they are a trader.

It is important to have the classical elements of leverage, risk/reward and simple method from day one. You can trade with fewer contracts and potentially be successful without over leveraging yourself. This may also give you time to pause and think through more challenging periods.

I hope this puts you in the right direction.

Thanks,
Matt Z
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paps View Post
Hey Bob..agree. SIM will be SIM unless someone trades of SIM exact the same way they do in live. Else SIM is a waste of time and has ZERO value.



Trading is a personal thing..... good traders will never boast that too on a public forum. The one's who do...congrats!!. A truly successful trader is actually devoid of emotion and may not find it necessary to express it on meaningless counter productive arguments. Anyways one's personal account balance will be worthy if one is good.... it makes zero sense to go announce one's bank balance to the world. Lol...with good friends or buddies one may share a thing here or there about markets & how they read markets...but i dont think it will ever be from a boasting standpoint. As the more cocky one gets the next slap can land on his face. Does not go to say that successful traders do not have ego...they do but it's to use it to their advantage.



anyways good that some share their good and bads of trading. Salute that. But there are many Amazing traders who are silent spectators and especially since they do not feel the need to justify or get into endless squabbles about proving their stuff..& why should they as it is not necessary ......i know for a certainty as i have one such individual as a mentor who taught me trading101. One of the most brilliant the world has seen imho. so good traders will not share & have no reason to do so. If they do it is only for pay back in some form.....nothing more...nothing less. And they will not do it for the sake of money for sure or expensive education.



i know for certain with hard work and application.... & like everything in life a lil bit of luck or the contact with the correct person.... anything is achievable......it's a limitless world



anyways cheers and gl to all. may all seek their objectives



Sorry my brother but I can't agree with the above highlighted. The market is nothing more than people interacting with each other. People have emotions, always will always have. It simply part of the human experience.



A more accurate take or statement would be IMHO being able to control and use ones emotions to their advantage in a trading business. This is very different from be devoid of emotions, which is completely 100% impossible. That being said one might have, shall I say an extreme case as an example to make a point clear, the "wrong" or inappropriate emotions, but there still emotions, like in the case of (remember extreme example) a sociopath.



My point is we all have emotions. I understand, it's the level of maturity and training we bring to our trading business in handling emotions that separates traders.



There are many excellent references available to the trading community regarding emotions and the intuitive process. Being clear, intuition is not some mumbo jumbo concept it's using your entire life's experiences with emotions as well as nonverbal insights to make decisions.



For example I think it was Denise Shull that said you aren't going to have intuition on something your not very familiar with. And goes on to tell of a firefighter's intuition she learned about where he could sense the building on fire was going to collapse because he could feel his feet getting very hot and ordered his subordinates to evacuate. Just before it caved in.



Similar intuition happens in a trading business.



Ron

Edit: grammar

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Blash View Post
Sorry my brother but I can't agree with the above highlighted. The market is nothing more than people interacting with each other. People have emotions, always will always have. It simply part of the human experience.



A more accurate take or statement would be IMHO being able to control and use ones emotions to their advantage in a trading business. This is very different from be devoid of emotions, which is completely 100% impossible. That being said one might have, shall I say an extreme case as an example to make a point clear, the "wrong" or inappropriate emotions, but there still emotions, like in the case of (remember extreme example) a sociopath.



My point is we all have emotions. I understand, it's the level of maturity and training we bring to our trading business in handling emotions that separates traders.



There are many excellent references available to the trading community regarding emotions and the intuitive process. Being clear, intuition is not some mumbo jumbo concept it's using your entire life's experiences with emotions as well as nonverbal insights to make decisions.



For example I think it was Denise Shull that said you aren't going to have intuition on something your not very familiar with. And goes on to tell of a firefighter's intuition she learned about where he could sense the building on fire was going to collapse because he could feel his feet getting very hot and ordered his subordinates to evacuate. Just before it caved in.



Similar intuition happens in a trading business.



Ron

Edit: grammar

Yupp that's the beauty of the market. Everyone has their own style. For me what works well is am not under any influence of emotion and trade based on signals on my screen.

Chèers...

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@Blash "A truly successful trader is actually devoid of emotion and may not find it necessary to express it on meaningless counter productive arguments"...what i also meant is this statement was in public forums.....there are at times too much noise lol like in the markets.

who has the freakin time to get into senseless arguments ...... hence many successful traders find it a complete waste of time to contribute to the threads as people do not listen. There is anyways quite a bit of good threads on Fio if someone really is interested in knowing how a market may function and they not looking for the grail indicator.

and its not like all newbies are posting from trying to get educated on markets ...as most come with pre-conceived ideas or thinking themselves as the next hot rod.

anyways thats all i meant....am keeping myself to a minimum here. Lol...u can take the horse to the water...cant make it drink

wish all make it....

cheers

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HoopyTrading View Post
Sheesh, thanks for the support there. As a "real" trader, I like to think that brokers would not think of motivation as "nonsense".

"We tried"? Who is the royal "we" you speak of?

Alas, I suppose you are not the type of person I initially thought you to be. As you said, in so many words... you make money on people, whether they win or lose. Win-win for you, regardless of the outcome of your clients' results. That seems so wrong when you say in the same breath, "So I want to stir people in the right direction as much as I can."

What IS the right direction? Please enlighten on this front.

Because it is a statement like "If they choose to come back with motivational nonsense" from an actual broker that dissuades us, the wee people, the lowly shits on the totem pole, that cause us to not want to trade. Thanks a bunch. GREAT way to gather new business for your company...Make people afraid of trading, so they never want to go live, to make you money.

Just so that you're aware, I have reported this post as 'Antagonizing, dismissive and patronizing'.

I decided to do so because this is not the first post from you that fits the description IMO. Several users have pointed this out to you in the past but you have not appeared to take stock of that.

I would also add: such style of posting is certainly common in other forums on the Internet, trading and non-trading alike, but it is a far cry from this environment where users genuinely are respectul of each other, even when they disagree with each other.

I for one do not want the culture of this forum to degrade. I would encourage others to do the same.

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  #371 (permalink)
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Unless you're on full-auto, where you simply hit the on-button every morning and then go to the beach while your program does its thing, there will be emotions involved every time you trade. The ability control your emotions and make rational decisions is of course paramount, but before you can even try to control them, you must first understand them. And quite frankly, there may be times where it's actually good to be a little scared. Over-confidence and complacency can be far more dangerous than fear and doubt.

Interestingly, some of the work I've been doing recently is, in a sense, designed to detect emotion when it manifests itself in actual traded contracts. My general hypothesis is that the ability to identify emotion-fueled trades when they hit the tape can provide an edge. Like the guy who panic exits a position at the worst possible level only to see it reverse and go his way right after he gets out? Try to be the other guy.

Years ago, there were floor traders who built entire careers out of exploiting their ability to read the emotions of other traders in the pit. Today we trade in an anonymous and faceless world of bids and offers appearing as numbers on a screen, but there are still very real emotions behind many of those numbers.

I'm still very much in the observation, study, and analysis stage here so I'm far from being able to make any claims as to whether I believe it's actually possible to identify if and when emotions are driving certain price moves, but it's certainly been an interesting exercise so far. If nothing else, it has helped me to better understand my own emotions, which has already made it well worth my time.

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  #372 (permalink)
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On the questions about emotions:

There will be the "emotions are bad" views, which are, in fact, pretty much the conventional answers.

There will be the "you've got emotions, live with/understand them" views, which you also hear a lot of.

Probably everyone can relate to both at some time or another. For me, I definitely know that I sometimes make trades on the basis of emotions that are out of control, and these don't work well. I also know I am not a robot, and do not aspire to robot-hood.... and would not succeed at it anyway. So I'm going to have emotions.

I think it's like anything else. Do I have emotions when I drive my car? Of course. Do I let them take me into an out of control state, so I ram into the M&*^% F(&&!@er who just cut me off? No. Is being pissed at someone who did that completely wrong? Not really. But it's what I do that counts.

Balance, and doing the right thing at the time, may be the simple and general rule here.

Bob.

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  #373 (permalink)
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xplorer View Post
Just so that you're aware, I have reported this post as 'Antagonizing, dismissive and patronizing'.

I decided to do so because this is not the first post from you that fits the description IMO. Several users have pointed this out to you in the past but you have not appeared to take stock of that.

I would also add: such style of posting is certainly common in other forums on the Internet, trading and non-trading alike, but it is a far cry from this environment where users genuinely are respectul of each other, even when they disagree with each other.

I for one do not want the culture of this forum to degrade. I would encourage others to do the same.

Thank you for pointing this out. I sometimes need a reminder that I have crossed a line. It was not my intent to come off as personally insulting to mattz. I tend to get emotionally charged in deeper discussions, and have deleted the offending post.

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  #374 (permalink)
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I give you my 2 cents opinion.

Stop believing in the popular BS of what must be the successful trader. The popular belief is that the good trader is a perfect mix of the "computational power" of Einstein mixed with the zen attitude of the Dalai Lama!

Of course if you compare yourself to this BS model you will find that you are not at even 1% of it because you are not super smart (apply to me too) and you are not a Buddhist monk.

I meet and work with a lot of real pro traders and believe me they are like you and me. It is just a job and like any job you (we) have just to learn and practice to become good.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #375 (permalink)
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It is just a job and like any job you (we) have just to learn and practice to become good.

good stuff...& true.

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  #376 (permalink)
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Years ago, there were floor traders who built entire careers out of exploiting their ability to read the emotions of other traders in the pit. Today we trade in an anonymous and faceless world of bids and offers appearing as numbers on a screen, but there are still very real emotions behind many of those numbers.

And nowadays we can exploit an understanding of emotion just by following the VIX and the implied volatilities of individual issues. It's always exaggerated over the historical and there is a very predictable pattern in how people react to events.

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  #377 (permalink)
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What about the guys who are doing things right?

- Only trading with money they can afford to lose
- Open and honest with their spouse, kids
- Steady income outside of trading that is more than sufficient to cover all life expenses while learning to trade
- Realistic expectations, knows that is likely to lose for a long time before starting to win, part of education
- Spends all of his time on research, homework, statistics, and review -- and not on indicators or trading rooms
- Creates accountability with a journal and his support network of trading friends, and his spouse

List continues.

For these guys, this thread does not apply. In fact, for these guys, they should be applauded for their conservative approach instead of thrill seeking holy grail fixation.

Mike

For the past few months i kept asking myself if i have the stomach for trading? Am i even in a situation where i should be risking my hard earned money ? As i read through this thread (backwards) I was doubting myself even more.

I have only been paper trading for the past few months , but i feel i make good decisions and i am profitable. So I had made the decision to open a real money account this coming weekend. As I read I began to change my mind. Then I got to this post above; I feel that I fit the criteria above with the exception of the trade journal. I never realized how important a trade journal is until I began to read posts about it. Im not sure how to approach the trade journal yet, but i will begin looking into it now.

Even though I've been making money with my paper money account , I'm not expecting to start off making money immediately. But will I know when to call it quits? Will i be more hesitant to buy/sell short with my own money at risk? will i take profit too soon? so many questions run through my head.

My wife fully supports me and we make enough income to pay all our bills and not sacrifice any necessities. I would like to make trading a full time income with part time hours, but am I being realistic? I have plenty of time to dedicate to trading, so I guess that is an advantage.

Anyway guys, I'm ranting ... This was actually good therapy. I got some doubts off my chest that i couldn't ask anyone else. Thanks for listening...(reading)

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  #378 (permalink)
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Ceerock81 View Post
For the past few months i kept asking myself if i have the stomach for trading? Am i even in a situation where i should be risking my hard earned money ? As i read through this thread (backwards) I was doubting myself even more.

I have only been paper trading for the past few months , but i feel i make good decisions and i am profitable. So I had made the decision to open a real money account this coming weekend. As I read I began to change my mind. Then I got to this post above; I feel that I fit the criteria above with the exception of the trade journal. I never realized how important a trade journal is until I began to read posts about it. Im not sure how to approach the trade journal yet, but i will begin looking into it now.

Even though I've been making money with my paper money account , I'm not expecting to start off making money immediately. But will I know when to call it quits? Will i be more hesitant to buy/sell short with my own money at risk? will i take profit too soon? so many questions run through my head.

My wife fully supports me and we make enough income to pay all our bills and not sacrifice any necessities. I would like to make trading a full time income with part time hours, but am I being realistic? I have plenty of time to dedicate to trading, so I guess that is an advantage.

Anyway guys, I'm ranting ... This was actually good therapy. I got some doubts off my chest that i couldn't ask anyone else. Thanks for listening...(reading)

Mike's quote is a good one.

As to what to do, well, no one else can know that because no one else is you.

But here are some things to think about (but only if they make sense to you) and some suggestions:

- Read as much as you can on this site regarding trading and the things that interest you in trading. It will help.

- There is an enormous amount of material and trading discussion and posting on this site, but most of it is behind the Elite wall. You would be very well advised to spring for the 100 bucks (one-time, lifetime fee) and become an Elite member. It would be a sort of a leap in the dark, but think about it carefully. It is worth it.

- If you are doing sim (paper) trading, you can learn a lot about the mechanics and techniques of trading, but nothing of the personal, psychological and emotional elements that come up when you have something (money ) at stake.

- Many people will say that pure sim trading teaches you very little, because of this. That may or may not be entirely true for you, but the simple fact is that you will not know what trading fully is until you come out of simulation.

- A trading journal is a very good way for you to up your game, by becoming publicly accountable. If you want to find out some more about it, you could check out some of the journals that are currently active, and see if something of that sort might be of help to you. Having a journal while you are still trading in sim may give you a half-way step between risk-free, no-loss paper and the real thing, because of the accountability factor. (You can BS yourself much more easily than you can when you've put down your trading decisions and then had to report what actually happened .)

- Currently, futures.io has a journal contest going on. If you jump over to this thread, you will see the people who are in this contest, and there are links to their journals. Just give them a look and get an idea what it is about (some of the journals will be Elite-only, but some will not.) Current journal contest thread: https://futures.io/feedback-announcements/40234-fio-journal-challenge-september-2016-a.html

- There are also lots of journals that are not in the contest. Some you might like, some not. You can take a look and get an idea of it all.

The deeper you dive into things here on FIO, the better off you will be, at least in my view. (I don't, of course, know what is right for you.... But dive.)

Good luck, however you decide to go ahead. The people here will try to help you, and do wish you well.

Bob.

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  #379 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Mike's quote is a good one.



Bob.


Hi Bob,

Thanks for your suggestions. I have been on the site since 8am EST reading and trying to pick up everything i can. i'll probably spend the next few days doing the same.I agree that until i start trading real money i won't get a true feel for trading. thats why I want to start trading real account and set a daily loss limit. ill probably start a thread on my experience and keep you up to date . Thanks

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Ceerock81 View Post
Hi Bob,

Thanks for your suggestions. I have been on the site since 8am EST reading and trying to pick up everything i can. i'll probably spend the next few days doing the same.I agree that until i start trading real money i won't get a true feel for trading. thats why I want to start trading real account and set a daily loss limit. ill probably start a thread on my experience and keep you up to date . Thanks

Good choice.

Good luck with it.

Bob.

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  #381 (permalink)
 
 
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Just writing this to organise my thoughts mostly, really tired.

So I know this guy from the States, around 40 so as mature as he needs to be. He SUCKS at trading, has been trying to trade for over 5 years and just never learns. Spends $erious money on books, TST combines (done his MES for the year too) and actually the two schools were not scammers.

He asked me to "assess" him and once we got through the BS of dos and don'ts to his method is was clear, he has no talent and is not smart enough to get better.

But he believes in himself.. oh boy does he believe its only a matter of time. I tried to explain that even if your fairly normal that is not enough. You don't have to be better than everyone but you have to be consistently high just to break even. He has some idea about rabbits and there being lots of grass.. perhaps its a self help guru analogy.

He has a very low EQ and average IQ (tested). As he as a low EQ he as no gut feel to begin with never mind ignoring greed and fear of loss in parallel. A average IQ is not enough when only the cream makes a living, even a mechanical system is the tip of a context iceberg and requires expansiveness of mind.

So he is unfix-able and should stop digging the hole. However he will not quit, its like he is a programmed cult member.

Well I've written down the problem.. thats step 1

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that I'd like to ask, and say. I will enjoy following this if it continues. Perhaps if I have the back story I could comment in a beneficial way...but yeah trading is hard.

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Rory View Post
Just writing this to organise my thoughts mostly, really tired.

So I know this guy from the States, around 40 so as mature as he needs to be. He SUCKS at trading, has been trying to trade for over 5 years and just never learns. Spends $erious money on books, TST combines (done his MES for the year too) and actually the two schools were not scammers.

He asked me to "assess" him and once we got through the BS of dos and don'ts to his method is was clear, he has no talent and is not smart enough to get better.

But he believes in himself.. oh boy does he believe its only a matter of time. I tried to explain that even if your fairly normal that is not enough. You don't have to be better than everyone but you have to be consistently high just to break even. He has some idea about rabbits and there being lots of grass.. perhaps its a self help guru analogy.

He has a very low EQ and average IQ (tested). As he as a low EQ he as no gut feel to begin with never mind ignoring greed and fear of loss in parallel. A average IQ is not enough when only the cream makes a living, even a mechanical system is the tip of a context iceberg and requires expansiveness of mind.

So he is unfix-able and should stop digging the hole. However he will not quit, its like he is a programmed cult member.

Well I've written down the problem.. thats step 1

I never want to step on someone's dream.

But the reality is, if he is trying to make this his primary income that he and his family relies on, it sounds like it isn't a good fit. He should be man enough to realize that, and relegate trading to a past-time hobby (an expensive one).

I've learned to believe that many people approach trading as more of a game, or some form of entertainment -- just like a hobby -- than they do as a full time profession. And that's fine, so long as they are honest with themselves about it.

Mike

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wldman View Post
that I'd like to ask, and say. I will enjoy following this if it continues. Perhaps if I have the back story I could comment in a beneficial way...but yeah trading is hard.


Big Mike View Post
I never want to step on someone's dream.

But the reality is, if he is trying to make this his primary income that he and his family relies on, it sounds like it isn't a good fit. He should be man enough to realize that, and relegate trading to a past-time hobby (an expensive one).

I've learned to believe that many people approach trading as more of a game, or some form of entertainment -- just like a hobby -- than they do as a full time profession. And that's fine, so long as they are honest with themselves about it.

Mike

Agreed, he has no family but he has a 35 year old girlfriend and like whats her name in My cousin Vinny, her biological clock is ticking. It would be sad if he missed the boat. He is honest, lacks the imagination to lie maybe..

I know he needs to smell the flowers and its a kindness but.. he retreats off to some guru book. He is kind of a stranger too, friend of friend.

Keep the passion but swap the dream for something he can actually do.. I'm not culturally attuned to him to find the cleavage point.


edit: I got there I think, see writing it down does work I don't have to fix him, I have done my part and should just give my report back to our mutual friend, its for him to take the next step.

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can they be convinced to adopt an approach that might be more likely to avoid losses? The first idea might be to expand time frame. Second, there are numerous option back spreading techniques that should limit losses to premium plus execution costs. The trader can scalp the option gamma to stay delta neutral and have the "feel" of market action. The trader doesn't not care about direction, only that price moves.

Equity risk arbitrage is another technique..a dollar ratioed long vs short that is theoretically neutral.

I guess these things take a fair amount of capacity to learn and execute. But as a guy who has had considerable exposure over many years I will say that intra day time frame directional trading of US futures or listed equities is the most difficult venue I've ever seen.

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wldman View Post
can they be convinced to adopt an approach that might be more likely to avoid losses? The first idea might be to expand time frame. Second, there are numerous option back spreading techniques that should limit losses to premium plus execution costs. The trader can scalp the option gamma to stay delta neutral and have the "feel" of market action. The trader doesn't not care about direction, only that price moves.

Equity risk arbitrage is another technique..a dollar ratioed long vs short that is theoretically neutral.

I guess these things take a fair amount of capacity to learn and execute. But as a guy who has had considerable exposure over many years I will say that intra day time frame directional trading of US futures or listed equities is the most difficult venue I've ever seen.

I hear you, just he seems to know everything but can't perform consistently, its only a matter of time before the ball drops. The only thing he knows more about than trading is Anthony Robbins. Theres a growing and already large market for this in South America (life coaching bla bla) however he is not that guy either.

I wonder if there is an anti-Anthony Robbins book?

Who am I kidding! Anthony Robbins has probably written two himself.

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Rory View Post
Just writing this to organise my thoughts mostly, really tired.

So I know this guy from the States, around 40 so as mature as he needs to be. He SUCKS at trading, has been trying to trade for over 5 years and just never learns. Spends $erious money on books, TST combines (done his MES for the year too) and actually the two schools were not scammers.

He asked me to "assess" him and once we got through the BS of dos and don'ts to his method is was clear, he has no talent and is not smart enough to get better.

But he believes in himself.. oh boy does he believe its only a matter of time. I tried to explain that even if your fairly normal that is not enough. You don't have to be better than everyone but you have to be consistently high just to break even. He has some idea about rabbits and there being lots of grass.. perhaps its a self help guru analogy.

He has a very low EQ and average IQ (tested). As he as a low EQ he as no gut feel to begin with never mind ignoring greed and fear of loss in parallel. A average IQ is not enough when only the cream makes a living, even a mechanical system is the tip of a context iceberg and requires expansiveness of mind.

So he is unfix-able and should stop digging the hole. However he will not quit, its like he is a programmed cult member.

Well I've written down the problem.. thats step 1

What about quantifying his performance over the 5 years in a visual format? This way he can see how bad of a trader he is. This would require some work and access to his trades of course.

But if you paint a here's your yearly ROI, expectancy, R/R, etc. and then compare it to what you need to succeed, it would show with facts and numbers that he isn't fit for this.

Some people are visual so they won't listen to what you say, but if they see numbers that don't lie in a graph-like way, sometimes reality can hit them.

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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SoftSoap View Post
What about quantifying his performance over the 5 years in a visual format? This way he can see how bad of a trader he is. This would require some work and access to his trades of course.

But if you paint a here's your yearly ROI, expectancy, R/R, etc. and then compare it to what you need to succeed, it would show with facts and numbers that he isn't fit for this.

Some people are visual so they won't listen to what you say, but if they see numbers that don't lie in a graph-like way, sometimes reality can hit them.

Good idea, he has lots of stats, the only thing I can give him credit for is he does love Excel. I thought a couple of days ago that maybe he could teach but the School of Trade thread has discouraged that idea. He could certainly mentor beginners and that would benefit him but the industry is vicious and his voice is boring.

Maybe its an idea to make him look at his data-set in a different manner. I'm just worried about losing high-ground by indulging him but maybe our mutual friend can get through to him.

Thanks again guys.

Edit: On a lighter note, this is an Ex-Anthony Robbins student, as Tony himself said if you can get past the first minute or so its very funny. Though I'm not a follower of anyone, I know this well as I used it at a couple of project initiation meetings to prime difficult customers with what to expect in the IT project. hehe.

https://brijux.com/2010/05/20/why-dudes-should-not-give-motivational-speech/

or direct https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a38_1274128765

Sometime you really should give up though.

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when competing vs the biggest...most solvent and brightest..with technologies and methodologies average trader has not even heard of....it definitely takes an understanding of market micro structure and finding a possible edge which may last. It takes one 16+ or 19yrs to be a doctor. why should trading me different if one has not gone into understanding and backtesting what is the edge they have after understanding how markets work.

however all this can be done. sweat n grit with tons of perseverance. but gestation during this time if relying on trading for a living might be a big iffy. There also seems to be an element of Luck or coming across something/someone-mentors/circle of traders... on how one could probably achieve this which goes as with everything else in life.

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Rory View Post
edit: I got there I think, see writing it down does work I don't have to fix him, I have done my part and should just give my report back to our mutual friend, its for him to take the next step.

That's the most important bit - we are only responsible for ourselves. It is good to be open and always help those we can whenever we can, but as my old golf/code mate used to say - 'you can't educate pork'.

As honesty is equally important, especially when marking our own cards, I'm not quite pork but I do know my trading is closer to a hobby than a job. Much closer in fact.

Cheers

Travel Well
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ratfink View Post
That's the most important bit - we are only responsible for ourselves. It is good to be open and always help those we can whenever we can, but as my old golf/code mate used to say - 'you can't educate pork'.

As honesty is equally important, especially when marking our own cards, I'm not quite pork but I do know my trading is closer to a hobby than a job. Much closer in fact.

Cheers

You can't educate pork indeed, been a while since I heard that living in the West Country.

Though you can (try) to take their copy of the Sun newspaper away from them and any other News Corporation/Murdock products. The man in question was telling me about Brexit this morning. He lives in California. (edit: and was quoting at me from the Sun online)

He is one of the 'what I feel is true is my truth' eegits. Failing to adapt to change and new evidence is what has him failing mostly. He also thinks in absolute terms however there are huge gaps in that landscape. I have passed the baton back to our mutual friend who plays softball with him.

"Never try to teach a pig to dance. It will frustrate you, and it irritates the pig".

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  #392 (permalink)
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just my 2c

Tell him: do not quit! do it harder. if one method does not work, drop it and go for another. get a mentor. a real one. do not consider this as hobby but something which you entire life depends on. you trade you have to improve yourself otherwise youre dead.

show him how to find those areas which needs to be improved ... or of that is the case... the areas in his psycho/skillset which needs to be cut out and burn down. raise the stake for him, to feel the pain.. physically if needed, slap him in the face with vet fish if goes nuts.. shock him with voltage if really cannot change. go extreme.

survival is not a skill it is a feature of us. think rationally in a seemingly irrational environment and adapt to rules and cultivate habits are skills. dissect the issue, make a root cause analysis there must be one or two components of his trading which is rotten. fix it.

its 2016. tradng is not an option. its a must. loosing and winning are options. adapt to your rules are must, but rules are options.

get him out of the hole.

cheers,
J.

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  #393 (permalink)
 
 
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JohniFx View Post
just my 2c

Tell him: do not quit! do it harder. if one method does not work, drop it and go for another. get a mentor. a real one. do not consider this as hobby but something which you entire life depends on. you trade you have to improve yourself otherwise youre dead.

show him how to find those areas which needs to be improved ... or of that is the case... the areas in his psycho/skillset which needs to be cut out and burn down. raise the stake for him, to feel the pain.. physically if needed, slap him in the face with vet fish if goes nuts.. shock him with voltage if really cannot change. go extreme.

survival is not a skill it is a feature of us. think rationally in a seemingly irrational environment and adapt to rules and cultivate habits are skills. dissect the issue, make a root cause analysis there must be one or two components of his trading which is rotten. fix it.

its 2016. tradng is not an option. its a must. loosing and winning are options. adapt to your rules are must, but rules are options.

get him out of the hole.

cheers,
J.

Bind optimism is as destructive as pessimism sometimes.

He wants to make a living out of this, after 5 years he has failed to do so. 3 to 6% succeed in the long term (less maybe) and he is not one of them. Average is average, the trading industry lies it's ass off to vulnerable people with slogans like "tired of being a slave? you can do it" or "just two ES points a day".

Its nonsense. If you not a smart person with a lot of concentration and entrepreneurial spirit, don't try Futures trading. This guy needed to stop digging the hole he is in a long time ago and do something that will progress his life. Its ok to be bad at something, an adult must know when to make a new plan.

"Friend to all is friend to none." Aristotle

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  #394 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Rory View Post
Bind optimism is as destructive as pessimism sometimes.

He wants to make a living out of this, after 5 years he has failed to do so. 3 to 6% succeed in the long term (less maybe) and he is not one of them. Average is average, the trading industry lies it's ass off to vulnerable people with slogans like "tired of being a slave? you can do it" or "just two ES points a day".

Its nonsense. If you not a smart person with a lot of concentration and entrepreneurial spirit, don't try Futures trading. This guy needed to stop digging the hole he is in a long time ago and do something that will progress his life. Its ok to be bad at something, an adult must know when to make a new plan.

"Friend to all is friend to none." Aristotle

I agree. While trading is hard, after five years if you're not making forward progress (i.e. making money and building your account) then you just don't have what it takes and deep down maybe you just don't want to. Think of Seykota's famous remark "Everyone gets what they want out of the markets." Even the losers, for what they want is not to make money but they want the thrill or pity from others. Some people actually like to brag about how much they lost. Makes for a good story over drinks.

Money make ya handsome
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  #395 (permalink)
 
 
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Pariah Carey View Post
....... Think of Seykota's famous remark "Everyone gets what they want out of the markets." Even the losers, for what they want is not to make money but they want the thrill or pity from others. Some people actually like to brag about how much they lost. Makes for a good story over drinks.

Indeed, the guy is a retail sales manager by previous career and nature. Due to his low EQ (tested) he studied all the guru books to "fake it till you made it" with promotions, trading was (too) shiny sidetrack.

He can return to this work with tales of adventure in high finance and actually useful (expensively acquired) excel skills. Business projections are now something he can make like a boss.

"Hacking people" as its said works pretty well for sociopath vendors selling crap to the unwary but is no use whatsoever on the market at retail level. Make a simple someone feel a victim of the system and they will give you far too much.

I think a lot of people who can get in and out of most anything in the real world get a shock when they hit the hard right edge, their poise and swagger stays in the room with them. They become that type of vendor after that. Have infinity pool photo, will travel.

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  #396 (permalink)
Boston, MA
 
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014


ratfink View Post
...but as my old golf/code mate used to say - 'you can't educate pork'.

...

For some reason that bit right there..."You can't educate pork"...That is lighting up my mind. It is a disturbing line of text. I do not know why.


Whee, it's fun to be a human I think! And what the hell does it have to do with golf?!?

lol!

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  #397 (permalink)
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HoopyTrading View Post
For some reason that bit right there..."You can't educate pork"...That is lighting up my mind. It is a disturbing line of text. I do not know why.


Whee, it's fun to be a human I think! And what the hell does it have to do with golf?!?

lol!

In his case he was a good (hc 1-3) golfer who could gave been pro but buggered his knees playing football. That part is irrelevant, he was just my best coding and golfing mate at the time.

In the case of pork, some folk just won't 'get it', hence @Rory's dilemma with his friend and why we all have to accept that all of us really are so very different. Walking beats talking in many cases.

In the case of what we do, trading shares many attributes with golf - skill levels, psychology, risk/reward of individual shots affecting whether you stay in the game, etcetera. Most important of all you never cheat when you mark your card or discuss your results, otherwise the only person you cheat is yourself.

Cheers

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  #398 (permalink)
 
 
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I was talking with my assistant about this thread (the guy) and as she is American, inquiring about her experience with US style positive thinking.

I'm not a negative person however I've always seen too much positive thinking as like drinking coffee to keep working. You get a short term boost but you nearly always pay for that, hot water would have been a better choice.

I fix problems and broken things. That is how I find a role in life. If there is nothing that warrants my attention, life is good. I don't need hyperbole to be content. Just my millions of dollars, gold house, rocket car and all that.

My assistant referred me to a book. The lady has a video.

I think its well worth a look for anyone who struggles to be quite as positive as their society (and the "self-help" industry) indicates they should be. The "woop" as discussed may well apply well to trading for some.

Curious if anyone has already looked at this "woop", my assistant is not a BS thinker so I thought it would be worth a mention.


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  #399 (permalink)
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Good stuff, PT is BS, but fancy that - Realism.Imagination.Planning.Execution selling books.

Cheers

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ratfink View Post
Good stuff, PT is BS, but fancy that - Realism.Imagination.Planning.Execution selling books.

Cheers

Yeah, there is the book haha. I had considered posting these links but.. I figured I was too negative.

Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation by Gabriele Oettingen ? Reviews, Discussion, Bookclubs, Lists

Gabriele Oettingen at New York University - RateMyProfessors.com

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/23/science/gabriele-oettingen-turns-her-mind-to-motivation-in-rethinking-positive-thinking.html?_r=0

My assistant (who taught at Harvard) described a lot of solid research done on the negative effects of positive fantasising in it. I've seen people get stuck on SIM101 and it seemed similar. There has to be some line between a useful life tool and a damaging dependency, someone always goes too far.

As an aside, in the used English bookshop here in Medellin there is an insane number of self-help books and biographies of 'powerful' people. Its mostly these books. The girl said they get lots of them from hotels & hospitals (left behind by American tourists). The bookshop seems a natural concentrator for copies of "talking points" by G W Bush.

I like the notion that there is some midpoint between the saccharin "everything is awesome!" of so many US kids these days (watch for ! at the end of nearly every sentence) and throwing the baby out with the bathwater regarding PT. I backpack a lot and I have noticed when one says something old school realistic, the gringo kids look at you like you spat in a church haha.

At least its not "the secret".. I was forced to watch that and I developed violent urges towards the producers regarding abuse of the work "quantum".

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