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Time to Give Up
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Time to Give Up

  #381 (permalink)
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How to get a self help brainwashed guy to quit?

Just writing this to organise my thoughts mostly, really tired.

So I know this guy from the States, around 40 so as mature as he needs to be. He SUCKS at trading, has been trying to trade for over 5 years and just never learns. Spends $erious money on books, TST combines (done his MES for the year too) and actually the two schools were not scammers.

He asked me to "assess" him and once we got through the BS of dos and don'ts to his method is was clear, he has no talent and is not smart enough to get better.

But he believes in himself.. oh boy does he believe its only a matter of time. I tried to explain that even if your fairly normal that is not enough. You don't have to be better than everyone but you have to be consistently high just to break even. He has some idea about rabbits and there being lots of grass.. perhaps its a self help guru analogy.

He has a very low EQ and average IQ (tested). As he as a low EQ he as no gut feel to begin with never mind ignoring greed and fear of loss in parallel. A average IQ is not enough when only the cream makes a living, even a mechanical system is the tip of a context iceberg and requires expansiveness of mind.

So he is unfix-able and should stop digging the hole. However he will not quit, its like he is a programmed cult member.

Well I've written down the problem.. thats step 1


Last edited by Rory; October 7th, 2016 at 01:34 PM.
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  #382 (permalink)
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So much...

that I'd like to ask, and say. I will enjoy following this if it continues. Perhaps if I have the back story I could comment in a beneficial way...but yeah trading is hard.

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  #383 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
Just writing this to organise my thoughts mostly, really tired.

So I know this guy from the States, around 40 so as mature as he needs to be. He SUCKS at trading, has been trying to trade for over 5 years and just never learns. Spends $erious money on books, TST combines (done his MES for the year too) and actually the two schools were not scammers.

He asked me to "assess" him and once we got through the BS of dos and don'ts to his method is was clear, he has no talent and is not smart enough to get better.

But he believes in himself.. oh boy does he believe its only a matter of time. I tried to explain that even if your fairly normal that is not enough. You don't have to be better than everyone but you have to be consistently high just to break even. He has some idea about rabbits and there being lots of grass.. perhaps its a self help guru analogy.

He has a very low EQ and average IQ (tested). As he as a low EQ he as no gut feel to begin with never mind ignoring greed and fear of loss in parallel. A average IQ is not enough when only the cream makes a living, even a mechanical system is the tip of a context iceberg and requires expansiveness of mind.

So he is unfix-able and should stop digging the hole. However he will not quit, its like he is a programmed cult member.

Well I've written down the problem.. thats step 1

I never want to step on someone's dream.

But the reality is, if he is trying to make this his primary income that he and his family relies on, it sounds like it isn't a good fit. He should be man enough to realize that, and relegate trading to a past-time hobby (an expensive one).

I've learned to believe that many people approach trading as more of a game, or some form of entertainment -- just like a hobby -- than they do as a full time profession. And that's fine, so long as they are honest with themselves about it.

Mike

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  #384 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
that I'd like to ask, and say. I will enjoy following this if it continues. Perhaps if I have the back story I could comment in a beneficial way...but yeah trading is hard.


Big Mike View Post
I never want to step on someone's dream.

But the reality is, if he is trying to make this his primary income that he and his family relies on, it sounds like it isn't a good fit. He should be man enough to realize that, and relegate trading to a past-time hobby (an expensive one).

I've learned to believe that many people approach trading as more of a game, or some form of entertainment -- just like a hobby -- than they do as a full time profession. And that's fine, so long as they are honest with themselves about it.

Mike

Agreed, he has no family but he has a 35 year old girlfriend and like whats her name in My cousin Vinny, her biological clock is ticking. It would be sad if he missed the boat. He is honest, lacks the imagination to lie maybe..

I know he needs to smell the flowers and its a kindness but.. he retreats off to some guru book. He is kind of a stranger too, friend of friend.

Keep the passion but swap the dream for something he can actually do.. I'm not culturally attuned to him to find the cleavage point.


edit: I got there I think, see writing it down does work I don't have to fix him, I have done my part and should just give my report back to our mutual friend, its for him to take the next step.


Last edited by Rory; October 7th, 2016 at 02:02 PM.
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  #385 (permalink)
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If this person won't quit...

can they be convinced to adopt an approach that might be more likely to avoid losses? The first idea might be to expand time frame. Second, there are numerous option back spreading techniques that should limit losses to premium plus execution costs. The trader can scalp the option gamma to stay delta neutral and have the "feel" of market action. The trader doesn't not care about direction, only that price moves.

Equity risk arbitrage is another technique..a dollar ratioed long vs short that is theoretically neutral.

I guess these things take a fair amount of capacity to learn and execute. But as a guy who has had considerable exposure over many years I will say that intra day time frame directional trading of US futures or listed equities is the most difficult venue I've ever seen.

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  #386 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
can they be convinced to adopt an approach that might be more likely to avoid losses? The first idea might be to expand time frame. Second, there are numerous option back spreading techniques that should limit losses to premium plus execution costs. The trader can scalp the option gamma to stay delta neutral and have the "feel" of market action. The trader doesn't not care about direction, only that price moves.

Equity risk arbitrage is another technique..a dollar ratioed long vs short that is theoretically neutral.

I guess these things take a fair amount of capacity to learn and execute. But as a guy who has had considerable exposure over many years I will say that intra day time frame directional trading of US futures or listed equities is the most difficult venue I've ever seen.

I hear you, just he seems to know everything but can't perform consistently, its only a matter of time before the ball drops. The only thing he knows more about than trading is Anthony Robbins. Theres a growing and already large market for this in South America (life coaching bla bla) however he is not that guy either.

I wonder if there is an anti-Anthony Robbins book?

Who am I kidding! Anthony Robbins has probably written two himself.

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  #387 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
Just writing this to organise my thoughts mostly, really tired.

So I know this guy from the States, around 40 so as mature as he needs to be. He SUCKS at trading, has been trying to trade for over 5 years and just never learns. Spends $erious money on books, TST combines (done his MES for the year too) and actually the two schools were not scammers.

He asked me to "assess" him and once we got through the BS of dos and don'ts to his method is was clear, he has no talent and is not smart enough to get better.

But he believes in himself.. oh boy does he believe its only a matter of time. I tried to explain that even if your fairly normal that is not enough. You don't have to be better than everyone but you have to be consistently high just to break even. He has some idea about rabbits and there being lots of grass.. perhaps its a self help guru analogy.

He has a very low EQ and average IQ (tested). As he as a low EQ he as no gut feel to begin with never mind ignoring greed and fear of loss in parallel. A average IQ is not enough when only the cream makes a living, even a mechanical system is the tip of a context iceberg and requires expansiveness of mind.

So he is unfix-able and should stop digging the hole. However he will not quit, its like he is a programmed cult member.

Well I've written down the problem.. thats step 1

What about quantifying his performance over the 5 years in a visual format? This way he can see how bad of a trader he is. This would require some work and access to his trades of course.

But if you paint a here's your yearly ROI, expectancy, R/R, etc. and then compare it to what you need to succeed, it would show with facts and numbers that he isn't fit for this.

Some people are visual so they won't listen to what you say, but if they see numbers that don't lie in a graph-like way, sometimes reality can hit them.

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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  #388 (permalink)
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What about quantifying his performance over the 5 years in a visual format? This way he can see how bad of a trader he is. This would require some work and access to his trades of course.

But if you paint a here's your yearly ROI, expectancy, R/R, etc. and then compare it to what you need to succeed, it would show with facts and numbers that he isn't fit for this.

Some people are visual so they won't listen to what you say, but if they see numbers that don't lie in a graph-like way, sometimes reality can hit them.

Good idea, he has lots of stats, the only thing I can give him credit for is he does love Excel. I thought a couple of days ago that maybe he could teach but the School of Trade thread has discouraged that idea. He could certainly mentor beginners and that would benefit him but the industry is vicious and his voice is boring.

Maybe its an idea to make him look at his data-set in a different manner. I'm just worried about losing high-ground by indulging him but maybe our mutual friend can get through to him.

Thanks again guys.

Edit: On a lighter note, this is an Ex-Anthony Robbins student, as Tony himself said if you can get past the first minute or so its very funny. Though I'm not a follower of anyone, I know this well as I used it at a couple of project initiation meetings to prime difficult customers with what to expect in the IT project. hehe.

http://brijux.com/2010/05/20/why-dudes-should-not-give-motivational-speech/

or direct http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a38_1274128765

Sometime you really should give up though.


Last edited by Rory; October 7th, 2016 at 03:12 PM.
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  #389 (permalink)
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when competing vs the biggest...most solvent and brightest..with technologies and methodologies average trader has not even heard of....it definitely takes an understanding of market micro structure and finding a possible edge which may last. It takes one 16+ or 19yrs to be a doctor. why should trading me different if one has not gone into understanding and backtesting what is the edge they have after understanding how markets work.

however all this can be done. sweat n grit with tons of perseverance. but gestation during this time if relying on trading for a living might be a big iffy. There also seems to be an element of Luck or coming across something/someone-mentors/circle of traders... on how one could probably achieve this which goes as with everything else in life.

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  #390 (permalink)
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Rory View Post
edit: I got there I think, see writing it down does work I don't have to fix him, I have done my part and should just give my report back to our mutual friend, its for him to take the next step.

That's the most important bit - we are only responsible for ourselves. It is good to be open and always help those we can whenever we can, but as my old golf/code mate used to say - 'you can't educate pork'.

As honesty is equally important, especially when marking our own cards, I'm not quite pork but I do know my trading is closer to a hobby than a job. Much closer in fact.

Cheers

Travel Well
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