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Time to Give Up
Started:March 27th, 2013 (04:47 PM) by Big Mike Views / Replies:55,826 / 414
Last Reply:October 21st, 2016 (12:21 AM) Attachments:3

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Time to Give Up

Old April 29th, 2016, 11:56 PM   #301 (permalink)
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On investment analysts, stock pickers, and hot mutual fund managers, " it's a coin flipping contest, if you have 50 people someone is always going to come up heads a few times in a row.", Jack Bogle, Vanguard Funds.

What amazes me is whenever someone makes an emphatic prediction/recommendation, it is always wrong. It is the "it is too obvious to true/correct/right" rule.

I always wanted to come up with a computerized strategy that would switch between what worked to what didn't work, because what worked in the past doesn't work in the future. But the MACD divergence from price seems to be consistent. I mena where you draw lines between lowest lows, or highest highs of the MACD/awesome oscillator/Elliot wave oscillator (Bill Williams) , and when the lines don't follow price, either buy for a positive slope line, or sell if negative.


Last edited by thailerdurden; April 30th, 2016 at 12:02 AM.
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Old April 30th, 2016, 02:02 AM   #302 (permalink)
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@Blash Ron am going to address this to you...lol if address it to someone else would get bashed.

too many concentrate seemingly on demanding proof that success in trading is a reality?...whether they want to see xxx pts/ticks...etc. however truth is multi-dimensional and so is trading. the game of trading is understood by self study and its roots have never changed....whether it be electronic stock trading...to actual trading in scrap steel commodity, iron ore, etc. To the unknown or unaware it will always be a mystery if $s or actual money can be made. infact electronic trading is complex but still very simple for the educated who has taught himself/herself to understand what moves price.

also why would someone divulge their statements or trade style. It is with only great pursue one may be able to find someone who can really impart or willing to impart their education. what can one give in return to such a person. in my view nothing...as they would not impart for any price. however for the demanding and proof begotten person ..they would never realize that. Will some of the most successful people in any vocation or trading itself show how they make their bread and butter. Lol never......they may write a Book

so many struggle to make 1pt...& want proof of a 10..100 or more. lol...even if someone showed them ..i cannot for sure....but there are definite others who could and will not. all numbers or more are possible with just single contracts. Just because x trader makes consistent xxx pts....another aspiring trader cannot make it even if they are sitting next to the person making xxx. this is something people cannot fathom. lol but its true.

also i see....that one fundamental flaw in thinking. It takes one approx 16yr of education and much more training's, etc to find a decent job which is much less paying than what a good trader might be making. Now the twist. Someone aspiring to be a trader wants to crack the oldest art in history with a few books/some indicators. Is that really possible especially when there are so many nuances. Deep introspection is needed is what i always felt. The urge to understand what drives price and how it really happens. now...if you really think hard...that 16yrs of education can be done in 2 or 3 if there is urge and passion. similar in anything in life. trading maybe even less....but it still takes time/commitment/dedication/willingness to pay for mistakes & a whole lot more which is for one to figure. And fundamentally understand how to read price.

anyways cheers....did not mean to bore on a friday. maybe time to catch a drink

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Old May 9th, 2016, 06:14 AM   #303 (permalink)
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paps View Post
@Blash

also why would someone divulge their statements or trade style.

When I made +$3000 on a t bond spread that I held over a weekend, I showed everyone my statement. It wasn't my trade, it was from Jim Gartman. To answer your question, I "divulged my statements" out of pride, to show off, impress others". Maybe that's just me.

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Old May 9th, 2016, 06:20 AM   #304 (permalink)
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paps View Post
@Blash

so many struggle to make 1pt...& w

Yes, that is me. Give me 10 recommendations, 8 which are profitable , I posses the skill the pick the 2 losers. Give me a useful indicator, unbeatable strategy, and I still can make it lose. Then I review the signals and prove that the indicator should of been profitable.

It's like betting on horses and going out with women. My horses are slow, but my women are fast.

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Old May 9th, 2016, 02:56 PM   #305 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
guys my comments were for @Blash. Nothing directed towards anyone.

The whole point of this thread is to give up or not. Giving up has never been an option for me. Thats all. It has always been a personal choice for which I had to also pay my dues.... but there is always light on the other end....if someone makes it thru the Dark tunnel has been my philosophy in life.

Nothing more ....nothing less....... who is market to tell me if i have to give up. I respect the market... but its my will too.

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Old May 22nd, 2016, 04:09 PM   #306 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
What about the guys who are doing things right?

- Only trading with money they can afford to lose
- Open and honest with their spouse, kids
- Steady income outside of trading that is more than sufficient to cover all life expenses while learning to trade
- Realistic expectations, knows that is likely to lose for a long time before starting to win, part of education
- Spends all of his time on research, homework, statistics, and review -- and not on indicators or trading rooms
- Creates accountability with a journal and his support network of trading friends, and his spouse

List continues.

For these guys, this thread does not apply. In fact, for these guys, they should be applauded for their conservative approach instead of thrill seeking holy grail fixation.

Mike

Thanks Mike. I belong to this category. Thank for the forum.

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Old June 25th, 2016, 01:01 PM   #307 (permalink)
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I Like what Ali Said

“To be a great champion you must believe you are the best. If you’re not, pretend you are.”
Muhammad Ali

I was at the first Ali v Frazier fight.

When Frazier got tired of the rope-a-dope he grabbed both of Ali's hands and dragged him into the center of the ring.
At round 11 Frazier knocked Ali down but they never ruled it a knockdown.

Frazier won. It was the only fight I ever bet on -- I bet on Frazier.

But you could tell after that Ali would come back. He did not quit--until a few weeks ago.

I think as traders on a screen, that we never see this as a battle, just chart stuff and indicators flashing by.

I started on the NYSE floor where you could SEE your opponent.

Perhaps it would be better if a trader thought before hitting that send key that you might be betting against Goldman Sachs.

TB

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Old June 29th, 2016, 11:23 PM   #308 (permalink)
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TheBenefactor View Post
...I started on the NYSE floor where you could SEE your opponent.

Perhaps it would be better if a trader thought before hitting that send key that you might be betting against Goldman Sachs.

TB

Oh my. That right there is a problem, methinks. Why do we all think that everyone else on the other side of the screen is an enemy? What opponent?

When you look at your charts and DOMs and flashes of trades on your T&S windows or whatever, why are they the " enemy?" I don't know where I am going with this thought, but it's going to a place where we can all be profitable, without becoming "enemies" with anyone. There is a reason we all want more liquidity in the markets we trade...Because it gives the potential for more profits. But "enemies"? That is too harsh.

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Old June 30th, 2016, 12:02 AM   #309 (permalink)
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HoopyTrading View Post
When you look at your charts and DOMs and flashes of trades on your T&S windows or whatever, why are they the " enemy?"

You are trading against an algorithm running in a server.

Only time there is an actual trader on the other side is over a huge order.

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Old June 30th, 2016, 12:22 AM   #310 (permalink)
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suko View Post
You are trading against an algorithm running in a server.

Only time there is an actual trader on the other side is over a huge order.

In my mind, trading is not a battle. It is not a war to be fought and then won or lost against an adversary. Whether it be a human avatar or a silicon avatar.

I cannot, in my head, compartmentalize it that way. It is counter-productive for me to do so.

Mr. Suko, if that is the way you need to see it, then so be it. I do not follow that path.

Good hunting. :-)

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