what made jordan so good was his versatility as a player...he could post you up (depending upon the size of the defender), he could beat you off the dribble (depending upon the quickness of his defender), he could use his perimeter game to shoot over you (depending upon the size of his defender)....notice the theme? same thing applies with trading.....
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In trading, all you really need is one edge.
I understand lots of different strategies and patterns but I basically only trade one of them.
I trade oil, gold, natural gas, some currencies, some sugar, but mostly indices.
The pattern I trade is the same in every one of those instruments.
I'm going to bet Jordan's dunking percentage was much higher than his 3-point percentage.
i.e. he didn't miss very many dunks but he missed threes, although not that often. I'm also
going to bet his free throw % was higher than his jump shot % but his dunking % was still higher
than all of them. So if Michael could place himself in a position without defenders every shot, he would
pick the dunk.
Trading is not like basketball where you are actively participating and throwing up shots, dunks,
3-pointers without rest. In trading, you get to sit back and pick and choose the shot that is right for you.
We don't know the outcome of the shot beforehand, but our past performance says that when we do take
this shot, we make it most of the time. So we pick that shot (pattern) to roll the dice.
Everyone's strategy is different. I'm a high winning % (70) average profit factor (3) kind of trader.
I'm not the 3 ball kind of trader. I'm the consistent, make most of my shots kind of trader. I sit back
and throw the chips on the table. I don't have to dribble past any defenders. I don't have to shoot 3's.
Why shoot a jump shot that is worth 2, when a lay in or dunk is also worth 2 (and much easier to make)?
I'm not a scalper either as my average winning trade is around 100 ticks. My average losing trade is about
the same but my consistency more than makes up for those equivalents.
P/L shown in ticks for the month of January./
This month is actually a little better than my average with 81% winning and 3.3 Profit Factor
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Psychology > Strategy ≥ Money
Last edited by Massive l; January 29th, 2014 at 12:24 PM.
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What a great thread this spun off to. I love soaking up all the different perspectives, thoughts and journeys people have gone through.
Firstly, @FXwulf - what a gut wrenching story. Thank you sincerely for sharing. It's almost like a true story version of Breaking Bad. I'm honestly happy you never pulled that trigger, and that you cracked the code in the end. I also really hope you manage to patch things up with your lost soulmate now that you're back in control of your lifestyle. Even just being friends would at least let you be a part of your kids life.
To answer BM's original post, my belief is that not everyone is cut out to trade, far from it. We are all different, made up of thousands if not millions of variables. I view the human psyche like a fine chemical cocktail made with thousands of ingredients, some inherent in your genes while some evolved based on your experiences growing up. Depending on your unique chemical composition, and your ability to adapt, trading might be right- and it might not.
The more i explore trading, the more i uncover that this truly is a very difficult profession to master, and I'm convinced it takes a certain personality/attributes to succeed. Stamina/Grit/Willpower is no doubt one prerequisite, but i believe there are many others, equally important, that factor into it. An example: Being "stubborn" can be great, if it makes you re-evaluate your approach and if you are a creative enough problem-solver to come up with new angles and viable ideas. Being stubborn is terrible if it only keeps you banging your head into the solid concrete wall and repeating the same mistakes.
The harsh truth is that not everyone can become Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan. That doesnt mean people shouldnt try, and give it their best! Because even if you only end up as Phil Mickelson or Shaquille O'Neal, life can still be all you ever dreamed of.
Then again, some people will simply never be good at golf, or basketball, or whichever endevour that requires a certain skill-development. The learning curve is long, some will be lucky enough to progress at a good rate. Some however will never. So wether its golf or trading, do yourself the favour of regularly looking into the mirror and honestly evaluate your situation, outlooks and likelyhood of reaching a level of success which you can be content with. Never sacrifice anything except time, and perhaps a few dollars. However dont invest money in "mentors" or indicators(that more often than not are stolen off futures.io (formerly BMT) elite section and rebranded)- thats just the lazy mans attempt at taking shortcuts. It wont do you much good, unless the mentor is truly exceptional. In fact, i'd be willing to say if thats your approach, then you are on the wrong path.
Get an Elite membership and read every opinion and view you can find, then pick your own truths after hours and hours of trial and error. Explore all the charts you can find on all timeframes, from 2 range to monthly's. Watch the webinars- every one of them will have some valid information that will make you grow as a trader. Try all the indicators you can, and notice how subjective they are in reality, and how you end up telling yourself "oh snap! i should have listened to this indy and not that one" or "this timeframe and not that one"- every time you eat a loss. Read a few good books, but be careful not to spend more time on theory rather than practice. After all, where would Tiger be today if he had spent more time on books than out on the golf course? Go absolutely crazy on SIM. Try any strategy or theory you come across that seems interesting. Watch the webinars, again - they will make more sense this time and you'll pick up even more pointers and ideas. Overtrade as much as you can until you could place trades in your sleep. Make as many mistakes as you can!! It's a fact that the strongest way for your brain to learn is by making and reviewing mistakes. Want to accelerate your learning rate? Keep a detailed journal, and revisit it regularly to review your mistakes and identify good decisions. Start developing your intuition- and start focusing on what that gut feeling is telling you. Do that until your gut is more right than any indicator ever made. Why? Because the market is a living breathing creature. In other words: it is dynamic. Very dynamic. That's why an indy may nail 10 / 10 trades one hour, then 0 / 10 the next. I firmly believe your intuition can become your best edge. Indicators are just frameworks to wrap around it, to paint a picture that "makes sense" to you and tells your gut what it needs to know.
At least, thats my theory, for now. And i should put a big fat disclaimer somewhere stating that i'm by no accounts a successful veteran trader. So these are only my current opinions based on my one year of researching.
Regardless, always make sure you have your "real life stop losses" in check. The journey should be almost as rewarding as arriving at the actual destination. Protect your sanity and quality of life at all costs. Never let the pursuit of success cost you happiness. Never let it go so far as some of the situations described here. Never let it get to where you fear telling yourself or loved ones the truth. Nothing is more important than the happiness and health of who you love and yourself.
Best of luck in life and finding happiness, regardless of your approaches.
Last edited by danielk; February 9th, 2014 at 09:45 AM.
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Time to give up when you start to erode on your capital, never do this job if you can make money in your real account. If you want to train use a demo account. Its important I think to know when to stop when you're ahead as well as behind.
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For me, I made the same mistakes over and over and over again. Everyone does.
The only way to avoid is if you have a professional standing next to you
with a meter stick in hand, whacking you in the head every time
you were about to do something stupid.
Even then...that might not work. Human nature can't help itself.
Psychology > Strategy ≥ Money
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