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Thanks - I think. Not too sure about the scary part.
I read many people say they are good traders.
In x's book (I forget the name its about 400 pages long,) in any case he is talking about money management and how important it is and then goes on to say that with good money management you can trade successfully even with random entries then has a little study on it.
It would seem to me logical that a person trying to forward test a strategy could pair with an experienced trader to evaluate it. The experienced trader could help with the evaluation if they have good trading skills/ good money management skills.
If the strategy has an edge then in the hands of the good trader it should produce more profit than random entry.
Money/risk management is perhaps more important than entries. This is why I mentioned previously in this thread the idea of getting into a trade sometimes without any signal - just flip a coin. The idea is that if you have the money management aspect of it under control (and I mean, really under control) then it won't hurt you in the long run. Maybe it'll put you in a drawdown period, but you're going to get those regardless.
This is contrary to a lot of people who approach it from an entry perspective only. They focus 90% of their time and energy on setups, when they should be putting 90% on limiting risk and preserving capital.
The focus on entries/setups comes from the belief that they always have to be on the winning side of trades, and this is where they get into trouble. Drawdowns are an unavoidable part of trading, but many people don't consider it thoroughly enough, and so they don't know how to cope with it when it happens. They haven't done the preliminary work of quantifying the expected outcomes of their trading strategy. You really have to crunch the numbers. At least with pencil and paper. Preferably with some sort of automated tool or software that can summarize the results of many trades.
The quote you mentioned at the beginning of your post reminded me of something similiar someone else said. I went and dug it up: Charlie Wright "So if there is no edge in the entry, then where is the edge in trading? The ultimate success in getting the trading edge is how you manage the risk - how you do the money management on the back end."
Ultimately, doing your homework will have a positive effect on the emotional aspect of your trading experience. You will have removed the "uncertainty" of how to handle strings of losses. You will have a method that recovers from them, and it's just a matter of riding it out.
Even during the times when I am sitting on cash and am up for the year, I know that I'm only three or four trades away from entering another drawdown period. But it doesn't matter. The strategy works through it.
Approaching trading from an entry only perspective is common, and as you say is bound to have negative outcomes.
However, my focus on entries (NOT setups, as I don't have "setups") is inextricably bound to risk. When my entry is at an advantageous price, my risk is lower. It does not come at all from a belief that every trade has to be a winner, it comes from a conclusion I have drawn from growing as a trader, that in practice, when my entry points are based on sound practices and are at advantageous prices, I take less heat, and incur less risk, and my losses, which are going to happen, do not hurt my mind or my account so much. It's when I have been sloppy with my entries that I have experienced the most psychological anxiety, and the largest losses.
Also, tied in with your idea of random entries producing profits based on a solid money management strategy is the simple notion that exits must be such that they overcome the 50/50 odds of random entries; this is not so much risk management and preserving capital, it's beyond that.
Interested folks might check out my homepage where I have a trading section summarizing my views. I compiled some information there so I wouldn't have to keep typing the same stuff over and over on these forums.
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