10,000 hours, really? - Psychology and Money Management | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


10,000 hours, really?
Updated: Views / Replies:21,902 / 205
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:4

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 4  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

10,000 hours, really?

  #71 (permalink)
Elite Member
Birmingham UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IG/eSignal
Favorite Futures: Dax
 
ratfink's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,340 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 11,283 given, 7,092 received


podski View Post
Hard ... but fair ..

podski

Agreed and thanks. Only said because like many I have travelled the hard road, the harder road and the impossible road and also like many am still here. And of course it never ends. The true test of any 'system' (includes computers, software, eyes, water and fat between ears) is that it remains resaonably stable yet adaptable in the face of constantly changing market conditions, hence I like the evolution metaphor.

Travel Well
Reply With Quote
 
  #72 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.indicatorx.com 
Bridgwater, UK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: MB Trading
Favorite Futures: Forex
 
mokodo's Avatar
 
Posts: 384 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 525 given, 344 received

Great Thread

Enjoying this thread, thanks everyone for the discussion.

Great book called 'Bounce' by Matthew Syed (not 100% about the spelling of the surname). Text on the cover says 'the myth of talent and the power of practice', which sums up the idea of the book well. He talks about the stages usually experienced to get really good at something. And lots of purposeful practice is the keystone.

So if you look for one set-up on one instrument repeatedly, and do market replay and increase your exposure to the same sceanrio you start to 'chunk' the information you read and can react and make your decision for better and better outcomes. An example in sport may be returning a 130mph tennis serve (that's a guess, do they go that fast?) and hitting a winner. A pro has received how many serves in their career? They read the incoming information from their opponent differently to an amateur, who sees a bloke at the other side of the net serving. A pro sees the angle of the torso, the feet position, the exact height and spin of the ball toss - and based on that they are returning the serve before the ball is over the net. That decision is no longer conscious, i.e. they are not using deliberate thought to make a decision, in has become intuitive.

OK, not all of this is applicable to trading. The longer your time frame the less 'read and react' you have to do with a stopwatch running. But the point is that to get good you need to get intuitive (=experienced) and there is no short cut to doing so.

know thyself
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to mokodo for this post:
 
  #73 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Palm Bay, Fl
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ToS
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
BobKor's Avatar
 
Posts: 6 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 3 received


I have read several posts about working long hours. First I would like to say I put in long hours but it's not work because I love trading.

Second thing I would like to say is that any super successful entrepreneur, business person even Big Mike doesn't know what it means to work part time at 40 hrs a week.

If you're going to be a successful trader or anything else for that matter you will work hard and long hours.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to BobKor for this post:
 
  #74 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York NY USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: esignal, ninjatrader,
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 110 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 54 given, 29 received

The 10,000 hours idea comes from a book from the 80s or 90s on “mastery”. How long does it take to master a subject. Not become competent, but master a subject. The 10,000 number is slightly arbitrary and an estimate. It sounds better than 8341 hours.

I can tell you from the chess world, where the word master has a more specific meaning that less than 4% (probably lower) of people who play seriously become masters. Lets consider mastery of a subject equivalent to getting a PhD.

As an undergrad you take 1 class in your major every semester. Lets say the class meets twice a week for 1.5 hours. You are expected to put in 2x class time in study. We will estimate a semester is 20 weeks long. Lets add this all up.
3 hours a week in class
6 hours a week in study
9 hours x 20 weeks = 180 hours x 8 semesters is 1440 hours.

Now you have to go get a masters degree and then your PhD. My estimation is that you will put twice this many hours in getting a masters and three times as much getting the doctorate. This adds up to a little less than 10,000.

Lets talk about non academic areas. Suppose you are a carpenter. How long does it take to go from beginner “Kid come over here and learn how to use a hammer” to being the guy everyone goes to for help because everyone respects your experience and mastery of the subject. Probably somewhere between 5 and 10 years. That is assuming you have had some dedication to learning and improvement .
Most people could do something for a million hours and never get beyond some middling level.

The good news is that although it takes a really long time and a lot of work to master something, it does not really take that long to be come competent and even good at something.

Read one book, or some equivalent, on any subject and you will know more than most people. Really read, as in seriously study them, 3 to 5 books on something then study and practice and you will know more than most people who say they do it on a serious basis.

As far as trading goes that should be more than enough to become profitable, and competent.
You will not be a master, but you don't need to be.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to mcteague for this post:
 
  #75 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received

I have been following this thread with interest over the last few days.

I think it is very reasonable that a prop shop takes a trader and gives them enough of a foundation in 3 months to be a break even trader and start making money in a year or so.

I think it is unreasonable that someone completely on their own with no guidance would be expected to have the same path of progression, and could take at least a year to get some footing, maybe a couple of years to start scratching, and maybe 3 years to start making money.

@mattz made a good point when he mentioned that the retail trader is overwhelmed. So many platforms, so many products to trade, snake oil around every corner. So little focus, too many options leads to a lot of aimless behavior. Chat rooms, forums (sorry), and the like can be a huge distraction and can make trading a fun hobby that one gets to interact with others, rather than really focusing on the goal at hand.

One caveat about the 3 months time frame. While I think it's absolutely attainable, a trader who's been in front of the screen 3 months really hasn't seen shit. That's one earnings season for crying out loud. It's not enough time to really get more than one or two looks at market conditions. Incredibly slow grind up with same thing day after day for 9 to 12 months has been known to happen, and different periods of the year are prone to their own characteristics. So, there's a hell of a lot of learning that must take place after the 3 month hand holding, particularly for the ultra noob who walks in and knows next to nothing. So, hopefully no one is under the impression that a magical 3 month trip to a prop shop is somehow all it takes. But being in the environment of having others doing the same thing, and being focused, is likely enough to get one on the right track. It's all the bull shit that people waste their time on that is the culprit and the enemy of progress.

Reply With Quote
The following 11 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #76 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received


mcteague View Post
The 10,000 hours idea comes from a book from the 80s or 90s on “mastery”. How long does it take to master a subject. Not become competent, but master a subject. The 10,000 number is slightly arbitrary and an estimate. It sounds better than 8341 hours.

Maybe some other idea like this, but not Gladwell. He got his research from the attached article by Anders Ericsson, and Ericsson has since said that Gladwell has himself invented the rule and that his research has been misinterpreted by him and others.

All it takes is some research; look online and you will see lots of blogs and inspirational articles citing the "10,000 hour rule" as if it's some sort of Word of God, yet I bet they never spent 2 or 3 hours to read the research that it was based on. People love to not think. That doesn't mean that some of the principles can't be helpful of course, but it's always sad to see opinion touted as scientific research.

Attached Thumbnails
10,000 hours, really?-deliberatepractice-psychologicalreview-.pdf  
Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #77 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,673 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 777 given, 8,742 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

2 great posts @josh

You know - if something sounds like it might be "the answer", then people will jump on it and it will gain momentum until it becomes a truth, conventional wisdom, common knowledge.

I am a hardened cynic and therefore tend to question everything, which I can attest - has as much downside as up.

Certainly doesn't make many me friends on line....

One thing I do suspect, if I had to sit down and calculate how much time I'd really spent at trading, my answer would be severely impacted by my beliefs.

If I truly believed the 10,000 hours thing (and I truly don't), I think I would overestimate. As it is, my suspicion is that I would underestimate.

The human mind is a wonderful thing but the more you learn about it, the more you learn how unreliable it can be.

I think De Bono is an excellent author to get you thinking about your thinking.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #78 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York NY USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: esignal, ninjatrader,
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 110 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 54 given, 29 received


josh View Post
Maybe some other idea like this, but not Gladwell. He got his research from the attached article by Anders Ericsson, and Ericsson has since said that Gladwell has himself invented the rule and that his research has been misinterpreted by him and others.

All it takes is some research; look online and you will see lots of blogs and inspirational articles citing the "10,000 hour rule" as if it's some sort of Word of God, yet I bet they never spent 2 or 3 hours to read the research that it was based on. People love to not think. That doesn't mean that some of the principles can't be helpful of course, but it's always sad to see opinion touted as scientific research.

You are correct. I should have said "popularized" and not " came from". It is a common mistake for people popularize and academic idea or research to be misidentified as the originator of the research or theory. I should have been more careful with my work choices.

So I should also add that although I think one can become competent and even good at most things studying 3 to 5 books, and practicing six months: They do have to be the right books.

Cheers

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mcteague for this post:
 
  #79 (permalink)
Elite Member
denver, colorado
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: ZS
 
Surly's Avatar
 
Posts: 704 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 628 given, 1,242 received


mokodo View Post
Great book called 'Bounce' by Matthew Syed (not 100% about the spelling of the surname). Text on the cover says 'the myth of talent and the power of practice', which sums up the idea of the book well. He talks about the stages usually experienced to get really good at something. And lots of purposeful practice is the keystone.
.

Thank you - man, Bounce is probably the best book I read in 2011, best one in a long time. Syed's points are great and his writing style engaging - can't recommend this one highly enough!! He does summarize the topics in several other books but there is a lot of original material - worthy read!

Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Surly for this post:
 
  #80 (permalink)
Elite Member
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: tos
Favorite Futures: NQ, SB, 6J, CL, GC
 
Massive l's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,458 since Mar 2011
Thanks: 922 given, 1,822 received


I know for a fact I could provide a trader with my exact way of doing business in the markets and they could make winning trades in their very first week. What takes time is psychology and risk management. It certainly shouldn't take 10k hours, but for me doing it on my own, it took quite a while. I still battle with it in a way everyday. Starting from scratch, knowing nothing about the markets and going through the hoops of indicators, different strategies, the DOM, placing orders, bracket trades, OCO, scaling out, scaling in, news, the list is extremely long because there is just so much information and different ways to do things. To sift though all of that on your own and find what works best for you and eventually programming your own trading model on your own takes a lot of time. But after you have all of that and can consistently make money, you can take somebody who knows nothing about futures, skip all of the bullcrap that you went through and have them up and running in a few months. I completely agree with that.

There's nothing to believe or to not believe with the 10k theory. Does it take exactly 10k hours!? No. All it's really saying is that it takes a lot of time to get very good at something. Ask Michael Jordan, ask Tiger Woods, ask Marty Schwartz. Michael Jordan didn't make the basketball team in his high school until he started practicing 6 hours, everyday. He made it the next year. Granted he had been shooting hoops since he was 7, but it wasn't until he put in that extra time that he had never put in before did it get him what he wanted. He went on to be the greatest. He was always first in, last out.

Psychology > Strategy ≥ Money

Last edited by Massive l; February 22nd, 2013 at 03:05 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Massive l for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > 10,000 hours, really?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
MeanBean's TST 10 ($150,000) Combine MeanBean Elite Trading Journals 6 November 18th, 2016 02:28 PM
Can a $10,000 investment yield $1,000,000 in a year? In five years? If so, what is th Mr III Psychology and Money Management 22 October 29th, 2012 03:00 AM
Return to Gold Standard? Why Price Would Hit $10,000 Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 October 13th, 2011 04:50 PM
Japan Fights Nuclear Disaster; Quake May Have Killed 10,000 Quick Summary News and Current Events 1 March 13th, 2011 02:41 PM
Trading small (sub $10,000) accounts Twiddle Traders Hideout 25 August 27th, 2010 12:21 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:43 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-17 in 0.18 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 107.20.115.174