Is Trading Psychology a Hoax? - Psychology and Money Management | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Is Trading Psychology a Hoax?
Updated: Views / Replies:14,547 / 140
Created: by aligator Attachments:8

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 8  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Is Trading Psychology a Hoax?

  #71 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received


Redneck View Post
Paraphrasing Mark

An edge is nothing more than the probability of one thing happening over another



For a trader

Applying one’s plan unwaveringly – is an inherent edge
Applying one’s methodology unwaveringly – is an inherent edge


Why so elusive;

Because people are not inherently unwavering

==================================

imo;

people like short term pleasure / and prefer to defer short term pain - much to the determent of their long term success

unfortunately


RN


... and what if your plan or methodology is flawed?

then, what you thought was your edge, was in fact ...the ledge

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #72 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received


Redneck View Post
For a trader

Applying one’s plan unwaveringly – is an inherent edge
Applying one’s methodology unwaveringly – is an inherent edge

Ok, but one's plan and one's methodology must "work" first. If my plan says buy at A if X happens, and yours says sell at A if X happens, and our plans are consistently opposite one another, then even given a large sample, either one methodology will be consistently profitable, or neither will, but both cannot. It's a bit of an extreme example, but is sufficient to prove that a plan and a methodology applied in an unwavering manner does not necessarily yield any kind of edge at all.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #73 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received



trendisyourfriend View Post
Does creating an edge demand great skills? What about the roulette player who has found a biased roulette wheel. He just needs to bet the same numbers without much thought. His edge stays unaffected. Why is it so different in trading? What exactly is an edge for a trader? Why is it so elusive?

First of all, let me make it clear, that I do not define trading success as breakeven trading, or simply being profitable, but as the ability to support yourself and your family, solely from your trading, over an extended period of time, without reverting back to the mean. If you believe the statistics that are routinely disseminated, the percentage of traders that can lay claim to the title of "successful trader" is 5%, which in reality, is probably overestimated. So indeed, it must require a substantial amount of skills to generate an edge that would consistently produce the necessary profits.

There are a myriad of reasons (both internal and external) why most traders fail to become successful traders. I have often touched upon the most salient, in previous posts. But, not unlike the roulette player who has has stumbled upon a biased wheel, only to have the pit boss or casino manager pull the wheel as soon the word had gotten back to the house, any exploitable consistency or pattern in the market, will quickly be gamed out, and rendered less than useful. Markets are always changing, as the players change, and the algorithms change, hence the term "ever-changing- cycles." Most traders remain static and trade in a way that is most comfortable emotionally, and not necessarily most profitable.

I think my edge comes from "accepting" the market for what it really is - ever changing, and highly variant. It's not about being right or wrong the market, or predicting where the market is headed in the next moment, hour, day or week. Trading is nothing more than a probabilistic exercise, and a trade nothing more than a statistical data point - the next event in a series of events governed by the statistical random distribution of results. Nothing "has" to happen, and certainly not because it has happened in the past. But, I am prepared for it when it does happen, and fear does not guide my trade, so if I feel that I have the edge in the trade, I not only will not be shaken out, I will be adding to the trade.

Reply With Quote
The following 10 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #74 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,355 given, 83,237 received

I think key is 'extended period of time'. Most people think if they have a good month or even a good year they can trade but really I believe it takes longer periods of time to truly prove an edge vs just random luck.

Of course time is interchangeable with trade frequency, 10 trades a year is worth far less than 1,000 in my view when quantifying an edge.

Sent from my Nexus 4

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #75 (permalink)
Elite Member
DFW, Texas
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 18 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 0 given, 25 received

You are correct

My unstated assumption is/ was

The methodology is reasonable.., and meant for the sole purpose of extracting money from the mkt

The plan is reasonable..., and meant to place one in a state ready to extract money from the mkt.., while making he/ she oblivious to all else

==========================

Fully acknowledge some trade simply for the juice/ ego/ fun/ God knows what

Their plan(s) / methodology(s) is/ are of course inferior

My apologies

========================
btw;

Creating a reasonable plan/ methodology ain't rocket science - it's only trading... (for a single purpose of course)



RN






josh View Post
Ok, but one's plan and one's methodology must "work" first. If my plan says buy at A if X happens, and yours says sell at A if X happens, and our plans are consistently opposite one another, then even given a large sample, either one methodology will be consistently profitable, or neither will, but both cannot. It's a bit of an extreme example, but is sufficient to prove that a plan and a methodology applied in an unwavering manner does not necessarily yield any kind of edge at all.


Reply With Quote
 
  #76 (permalink)
Elite Member
DFW, Texas
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 18 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 0 given, 25 received

Then you're trading for reasons other than making money - or too stubborn/ stupid/ egotistical to change - or both

eta; A trader can make money.. or make excuses - they will never do both

RN



tigertrader View Post
... and what if your plan or methodology is flawed?

then, what you thought was your edge, was in fact ...the ledge



Last edited by Redneck; January 31st, 2013 at 11:48 PM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #77 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,355 given, 83,237 received


Redneck View Post
Then you're trading for reasons other than making money

I trade for reasons other than money. Money is an important reason, but there are others.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #78 (permalink)
Elite Member
DFW, Texas
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 18 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 0 given, 25 received


Big Mike View Post
I trade for reasons other than money. Money is an important reason, but there are others.

Mike

And that is the beauty - we will get out of it exactly what we want... a true mirror in to our inner being


personally - I'm a greedy / stingy bastard - especially with my losers

RN

Reply With Quote
 
  #79 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Boca Raton
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Variety
Broker/Data: Optimus Futures, LLC
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
mattz's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,061 since Sep 2010
Thanks: 1,934 given, 2,787 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Asking if psychology plays a role in trading, is like asking whether psychology plays a role in success.
Of curse it does, because without determination, sweat and sacrifice you get nowhere.

But, in the trading world "psychology" has become the blame game, the bastard child, the whipping lash and the S&M session that we all have go through while reclining our heads with shame when someone says you says "hey, you trading sucks, you need to work on your psychology".

I went through buying highs, selling lows, panicking, getting excited and so did YOU.
But, I assure you that we all don't have the same psychological issue.

What helped me over time is understanding market structure, how buyers and sellers interact, why new highs brings more highs, and above all when not to trade.
I have learned from selected few who were great in teaching me market structure, volume and pattern recognition while the psychology books came after.

The industry of educators, mentors, and all the vendors, etc caught wind of the fact that everyone makes the same errors and isn't it just "genius" to point out the obvious? Trading is a business where if you know 2% more than your friend, you are considered a wunder kid. I have made here a webinar a while back about "psychology" but I had no intention of sounding like a clinical psychologist or pick on anyone, it was merely my experience with customers with the best attempt to help. A series of psychology topics came after in webinars which for the most part were good, except for one where he ripped everyone for pieces and called everyone undisciplined and greedy. Thank you, Thank you very much (read as Elvis would) and now what?

The bottom line is that you can turn psychology into a hoax, or make it part of your trading experience in the right place in the right time.

Like @tigertrader said it's 5% successful if that...which means that most of the one who you consider successful are not...they are just good in lecturing you.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.

Last edited by mattz; February 1st, 2013 at 04:29 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mattz for this post:
 
  #80 (permalink)
Elite Member
Los Angeles, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Rithmic
Favorite Futures: GC
 
plethora's Avatar
 
Posts: 639 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,174 given, 422 received



mattz View Post
I have learned from selected few who were great in teaching me market structure, volume and pattern recognition...

I am asking a third time which teachers you would recommend? If you don't want to post it here, could I trouble you to email me.

Thank you, Matt "The Source" Z.

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > Is Trading Psychology a Hoax?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Trading Psychology and How The Mind Works (I) George Psychology and Money Management 19 Today 12:38 AM
Inspiration or hoax?! Trade it don't Date it (www.tradeitdontdateit.com) Cloudy Trading Reviews and Vendors 86 July 13th, 2017 01:14 PM
Trading Psychology Self Assessment dee50 Psychology and Money Management 7 May 21st, 2012 04:50 AM
Avoiding Secondhand Trading Psychology Anagami Psychology and Money Management 3 March 28th, 2011 12:28 PM
The Psychology Of Trading? NYSE Psychology and Money Management 7 November 21st, 2010 10:30 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:23 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-18 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.92.201.232