re: So setup with 30% win ratio can be better than setup with 85% win ratio.
You may like to read some of Nassim Taleb's stuff.
When he traded he lost most of the time because has was looking for the rare event...the "black swan". This is a hard methodology to trade from a mental standpoint. Most systems with a lose rate greater than 50% are... http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/
re: I have another question to you (I actually asked it on another thread, not on holidays, without any response).
You have two setups and in a period of time (doesn't matter how long) those are the results: ....
You are assuming time or timeframe doesn't matter (it may or may not) and that these "facts" you have learned about the past mean something (they may not)... I think you will like Taleb.... fooled by randomness...
Last edited by websouth; January 1st, 2010 at 04:38 PM.
Frankly speaking I was sure statement about cocaine is quite clear
I will not mention that I "do not like narcotics" and like a lot sport on professional level
All other in my previous reply even if read that from back to start, and from middle to any end also quite obvious
Taleb + Niederhoffer the same stuff
I do not remember exactly, but someone of really great traders said :
is always right because he is awaiting for years for market crash which is of course will happen anyway because of market nature, however between crashes while awaiting them he looses all the money he made on previous crash
is always right because he can trade successfully, meaning mostly long, during bull markets and when they ends he loose all earned money awaiting next bull market
so, together they are great bro !
that's words of great trader, that's it
also LTCM can be also mentioned as example of "researches", by the way soon LTCM #3 will be launched, of course much, much smaller than # 1 and we can not expect it will make 1 trillion hole
I've mentioned specially great research about coin toss which shall open eyes of those who still believe in that, that stuff is
whereas traders using old school and pit strategies still trade and don't smoke that
Last edited by Andrew; January 1st, 2010 at 04:55 PM.
First I read the book. Did you understood from the book that "black swan" is an occurrence in a rate of 30%?
You are correct that past results are not assurance of future results, but we as TA traders have this and only this information (maybe you have some future insights. Please share them) and thats the whole essence of TA.
How did you come to this idea?
Why you and Andrew add to this thread some philosophical and other bull....?
Why can't you answer the question and explain your answer?
I'm not interested to participate in this kind of .....