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Not able to pull the trigger
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Created: by Mephistophilis Attachments:0

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Not able to pull the trigger

  #11 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Rajkot, India
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
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Hi there


Quoting 
1. Remove all indicators and have only one sma/ema
(I'm NOT "against" indicators)

I dont have many indicators on my chart. Only using one EMA, price(candles), Volume.


Quoting 
2. Learn the price action – When the graph is clean the mind is much more free
to see and then understand the movements, speed, range and etc.

Yes... would welcome suggestions on price action if any.


Quoting 
3. Simple money management – let say that you are working with 5 contracts
and the trend is up – what I done in the past and worked for me was –
immediately after I recognize the trend I enter with one contract only –
I feel good because I'm with the trend and only small % from the total contracts –
The only thing that you can do for now is to
watch at the graph movement – there is no pressure.

Learn the graph move while you are in and learn how you are doing
with the decision making with the other 4 contracts –
many possibilities to those. Learn what fits to you regarding the
decision making for the continuation move/contracts.

Currently using very small risk per trade and will reduce further if down to -10R


Quoting 
To improve mentality you must have no pressure situation
while you are in and to understand your process and quality of the decision making.

+1
But I have a feeling that one good run of 20 to 25R would put me back on track

thanks for post.

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  #12 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Hi eudamonia


Quoting 
1. You need to be engaged with the market. You must "show up" to be successful. Most likely your websurfing and other activities are distractions to keep you away from the pain of losing, the fear of success, and other emotions you are hiding from. Focus on being in the "present". You cannot control the market. But you have full control over whether you engage the market or not.

Many times I have decided not to open browser but sometimes when there no setups for long time, get tired and............


Quoting 
2. You don't really believe in your system. Maybe you haven't tested it enough yet. Or maybe you have but you still have doubts. Before you start trading any system you must fully accept losing X% of your trading account. Imagine what it would like to have lost that money. Now. It. Is. Gone. Can you accept this? That is your worst case scenario. You are not dead from losing this money. Pick yourself back up and create another system if need be.

One has to accept faults he/she makes. May be you are correct and i may not have tested my system enough. I have started further tests of the method and will post in a few days once i am done.


Quoting 
The truth is your imagined worst case scenario is probably 100X worse than any reality that could happen.

Do not agree... as mentioned earlier my risk per trade is 0.35% per trade. If i am down by -10R, i will reduce risk to 0.15%. From there will continue till -30R. Still this will keep more than 90% of my account safe.

Now even after going down by 30R if i am not able to produce result than will have to check system... if system is ok and i am still not able to catch good entries, i will have to find a good wall to

Mephistophilis

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  #13 (permalink)
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Hi Rachel

First of all thanks a lot for taking time and typing this nice post.


Quoting 
I studied with a very seasoned trader and he said, everytime he enters a trade inside he is scared like a little girl.
It is normal to feel those emotions, it is a problem if it influences your abiltiy to function. Even though that seasoned trader felt fear, he still pulled the trigger on the trade with gusto.

Yes, my story is same. The difference is that i take back seat and do not pull the trigger after take two or three wrong trades.

Quoting 
Back testing and sim, isn't the same as trading live, you have more emotions that come into play but eventually with time, you will get to a place where it doesn't affect you any more. A win and a loss are looked upon as the same thing, trading is just a method to creating income, the fun is in your execution and figuring out a better mouse trap, to capture your profits. Focus not on results but on your execution. That is what successful traders focus on and make sure you understand what your draw down is.

you are correct. But if system is producing good results in back test and not doing well in real time then i guess it would me who is at fault and not the system. I am backtesting further and will post result in next few days.

Thanks for thoughtful insight. of course i will also try ginger & cinnamon tea

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  #14 (permalink)
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Mephistophilis,

I had the same problem, I learned how to program my strategies and let the auto strategy do the trading.
I also move to trade the M6E , to risk just a small % of my account per trade.

this was the perfect solution for my psychology problems.

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  #15 (permalink)
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Mephistophilis View Post
Hi eudamonia

Many times I have decided not to open browser but sometimes when there no setups for long time, get tired and............

One has to accept faults he/she makes. May be you are correct and i may not have tested my system enough. I have started further tests of the method and will post in a few days once i am done.

Do not agree... as mentioned earlier my risk per trade is 0.35% per trade. If i am down by -10R, i will reduce risk to 0.15%. From there will continue till -30R. Still this will keep more than 90% of my account safe.

Now even after going down by 30R if i am not able to produce result than will have to check system... if system is ok and i am still not able to catch good entries, i will have to find a good wall to

Couple more thoughts for you:

1. All I hear is an excuse. Just being honest. Commit yourself to trading X hours a day. Even if all you can do is 1 hour. Then give every ounce of your attention to that time. Be there 100%. Now I understand that some days are just not advantageous to trade. Recognize this and accept it. Shut down your trading computer and go do something else. Not web browsing. Go do something you are passionate about - go work out, go hike a mountain, go spend time with friends or family. Do not waste your time if you are not 100% committed to trading that day. Coming back to your monitor and living in regret because you missed trades takes you out of the present and sabotages the future success you could have. Don't live in the land of coulda, woulda, shoulda but didn't.

2. Either you haven't tested it enough or you don't believe the results. You must believe in yourself, in your trading system to succeed. Trading will test you. Those that succeed can go beyond the temporary pain of the moment and reach down deep inside to persevere through it.

3. So if you have imagined this worst case scenario and it isn't that bad then what is stopping you? What are you afraid of? Perhaps you don't really want to be successful? Perhaps you are afraid that your family won't love you because you are successful? I don't know. I don't live in your head. But if you want this you need to get inside your head. You don't trade the market. Not really. You trade yourself. So figure out what is holding you back and start examining it. Take that thought apart and analyze it. Then construct a new belief that is more powerful and empowering to replace it. Work on stepping into that belief everyday.

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  #16 (permalink)
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Mephistophilis View Post
Hi Nicolas11

Thanks for your reply. It was helpful.

I am good with most of the questions you posted above. However, after going through charts and some introspection, I found out some problems.... They are....

1. Not paying attention to charts (surfing, mails, forums etc. Most trades missed due to this)
2. Hesitation in taking trade in same stock once it hits stop( Many times it gave great runs on second attempt)
3. Sometimes give excuses like 'it is in sideways' even if system indicates trade. ( Due to fear )
4. Fear: (Fear of being wrong, Fear of not achieving targets)
5. Waiting for further confirmations not mentioned in system.
6. Taking trades mostly only in earlier part of day: Sometimes avoid trade after loss to stop further damage, sometimes happy with early morning profits.

My risk management is tight so hitting stops will not give much trouble to my account. My maximum loss for the day is 1.5%.

Hope will be able to workout these issues sooner than later...

Mephistophilis

1. This used to be a major problem for me. When your trading day starts make sure nothing is onscreen except your charts and platform and trading-related tools (such as trade alerts). Shut down email, web sites, phone, anything you can possibly be distracted by, because you WILL be distracted. It's a defense mechanism, gives you a way to satisfy your ego ("look how good that setup turned out, I sure can read the price action...") and gives you an "out" - someone/something to blame for not assuming the risk (email, forum, kids, dogs, etc.).

2. I solved this by taking second entries on most trades. I found that the vast majority of trade setups I used came back to stop out the nervous traders.

Focus on your proper execution and the outcome will take care of itself.

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  #17 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Rajkot, India
 
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Hi friends.

I was backtesting my system for the month of April 2012. Here i am posting the results for the same.

Notes:

1. These backtesting is done on indian markets as i am in india and trading indian markets.
2. Trades between -0.1R to 0.1R are individually counted as BE. However they are calculated in NET P/L.
3. My target for the month is 25R.
4. I am using a simple candlestick chart, volume and EMA. Time frame 10 mins.
5. this backtest is done on six different symbols i am tracking everyday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Backtest result for April 2012

No. of Days Traded : 18
Avg. Trade per Day: 7
Maximum trades taken in day: 12
Minimum Trades taken in a day: 4


Trades: 128
Profit: 49
Loss: 49
BE: 29
R MULTIPLE: 23R


Biggest Profitable Day: 10.48R
Biggest loss Day: -2.85R


Biggest profit Trade: 4.63R
Biggest loss Trade: -1.01R


AVG profit trade: 1.04R (BE trades included)
AVG Loss Trade: -0.44R(BE trades included)


The beginning of the month was little slow as i was -2R till 13th.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In next few days i will post result for the month of May and then February and March. Its taking a little time as i am doing this backtest manually.

Mephistophilis


Last edited by Mephistophilis; June 7th, 2012 at 02:22 AM.
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  #18 (permalink)
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It's like anything your trying to do that requires money. I know someone who started to remodel their kitchen. They started construction but couldn't "pull the trigger" on cabinets, etc. Room stayed dissary for two years.

Same thing applies here. Pull the trigger!!! it will get easier as you go. Maybe you can have a friend sit with you and let him hit the Done button. Just get stasrted!!

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  #19 (permalink)
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Mathematics of Trading ?

I'm curious if there is readily available any hard math (tables/charts) that one can use to apply to trading.

In his book "Gambling Theory and Other Topics", Mason Malmuth calculates the size bankroll needed to assure one doesn't go broke while playing with (X) advantage --- and also how many trials are necessray to guarantee a win.

In briefly glancing through the section, I have serious doubts that most people will ever make enough trades in a lifetime to make the claim that they are anything other than lucky if they happened to survive. But of course, to not belive in those who claim to be successful by trading skillfully -- is to not believe we can do it ourselves.

Pardon me for giving my opinion, but this forum is severely littered with extremely tiresome and repititious posts dealing with everything from "how to explain what you do for a living", psycholigical soul searching to the point ad nausem -- to why it's better to taking a freaking shower before you start trading ! I mean, really !!

I want to know the answer to the following type of question: (Example)

If I trade a set-up that has, (at least, in my opinion proven itself) to make $50 --- 55% of the time and lose $45 -- 45% of the time ----- what size does my account need to be in order to assure that I do not go broke ? And how many trades will it take to assure me of a guaranteed win?

In fact, everyone here should want to know the exact answer to this question before making any trade, I would like to think. To me, this type of knowlege is what builds confidence. Unless you have this type of thing nailed -- no advice is going to help you.


Peace,
Paige

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  #20 (permalink)
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Mathematics in Trading



Paige View Post
I'm curious if there is readily available any hard math (tables/charts) that one can use to apply to trading.

In his book "Gambling Theory and Other Topics", Mason Malmuth calculates the size bankroll needed to assure one doesn't go broke while playing with (X) advantage --- and also how many trials are necessray to guarantee a win.

In briefly glancing through the section, I have serious doubts that most people will ever make enough trades in a lifetime to make the claim that they are anything other than lucky if they happened to survive. But of course, to not belive in those who claim to be successful by trading skillfully -- is to not believe we can do it ourselves.

Pardon me for giving my opinion, but this forum is severely littered with extremely tiresome and repititious posts dealing with everything from "how to explain what you do for a living", psycholigical soul searching to the point ad nausem -- to why it's better to taking a freaking shower before you start trading ! I mean, really !!

I want to know the answer to the following type of question: (Example)

If I trade a set-up that has, (at least, in my opinion proven itself) to make $50 --- 55% of the time and lose $45 -- 45% of the time ----- what size does my account need to be in order to assure that I do not go broke ? And how many trades will it take to assure me of a guaranteed win?

In fact, everyone here should want to know the exact answer to this question before making any trade, I would like to think. To me, this type of knowlege is what builds confidence. Unless you have this type of thing nailed -- no advice is going to help you.


Peace,
Paige


What about trying Monte Carlo Analysis using for example this:
http://www.adaptrade.com/MSA/montecarlo.htm

It may give answers to your questions.

Hana

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