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Very well said. The biggest thing for me to accept and not try taking my shots at was predicting where we will go. it's important to understand market context structure correlation and so forth. But given the complexity and layers behind the movement on the markets, I can't for the life in me put together pictures to reel in market /investor sentiment.
Thereby, i started again, and chose few setups that I see and just chose to trade that. Albeit as a scalper and odds are highly stacked against me but if i can get a good recognition of the pattern im looking for, i get an easy trade. When i fail at or don't take my true setups i have bad trades and go into noise scalping mode. That's something which is a work in progress for me. But nonetheless chosing a simple pattern and trading that seems to be working out for me. Trying to swing trade with a psychological capacity of beginner was and is still a major issue for me.
@noobforlyfe what clicked for me was finally accepting that I'm nothing more than a speculator. I was married to this idea that one day I'll be a trader and that i must first figure it all out. It's a pipe dream leading down a winding rabbit hole that takes you nowhere. I was analysing this and analysing that and trying trying trying but still went backwards. Reached fuckit and adopted a gamblers mindset. No one knows what will happen next it's all just speculating...a numbers game. Throw 20 trades at the market and hope that you have the discipline to press the winners and cut the losers. Mark Douglas YOU ARE THE MAN (rip).
This resonates strongly with me, but I always start analyzing again, trying to find even the smallest degree of certainty in sometimes very complex and costly algos and set ups.
When you say you haven't looked back, can you say how much profitability has changed? Any numbers you can share please?
3 months results to date.
Profit factor 1.25.
All live trades on forex.
You are an algo trader though so your approach is quite different to my discretionary approach. I think..... dont have much insight into the algo traders universe.
Good post! I've found psychology difficult too as well as I always end up messing up once I start either going on a win streak or lose streak, I found meditation really helps though
Let's face it, everybody is a speculator. The only thing that is not a speculation is your investment in yourself and your kids .
A lot of buy and hold bagholders call themselves investors as a way to lie to themselves about the fact that they are speculators -- just the same as scalpers. But the only difference is duration.
Everybody is a speculator, get over it.
As for gamblers.
Let's make a clear disctinction between gamblers and there are pro players. Whether it be pachinko, blackjack or options. The difference between gamblers and the pros is that the gamblers do not know whether they have edge or not. The pros will only play when they have edge. The have a system with edge and they play it with discipline.
I seek to trade as a pro, not as a gambler.
This is one reason why I will not trade earnings. There is no way you can convince me there is any edge to be seen in earnings. It's pure gambling. Pre-earnings is another matter.
"Persistence is very important. You should not give up unless you are forced to give up." -- Elon Musk
There's a great W.C Fields clip somewhere on YouTube (I tried to find it just now, but couldn't), where Fields is sitting at a card table and a rube comes up and says, suspiciously, "Say, is this a game of chance?"
in a structured fashion.
