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Do you now your probabilities?
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Do you now your probabilities?

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Do you now your probabilities?

Dear all,

A question from curiousity.. do you know the odds/probabilities of that trade you're about to enter?

And how did you get these probilities.. by quantify it or discretion?

I'm curious because currently I'm struggling with this part

Thanks all.

 
  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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no111 View Post
Dear all,

A question from curiousity.. do you know the odds/probabilities of that trade you're about to enter?

And how did you get these probilities.. by quantify it or discretion?

I'm curious because currently I'm struggling with this part

Thanks all.

Your probability is based on past performance and the testing you have done.
It MUST be quantified by seeing the risk and the reward behind this pattern, occurrence, etc
(risk X percentage) + (anticipated reward X percentage) = should be a positive outcome
If you don't know how many points you seek to take, then you are in the business of hope.

more experienced trader (real time trading) sometimes seek to enter the market on a certain occurrence (pattern, divergence, indicators) and exit when that occurrence stopped, but this is for much more experienced traders.

For beginner I suggest to know the risk and reward ahead of the trade.

PM with any questions about optimusfutures (800) 771-6748 (561) 367 8686. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
 
  #4 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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Big Mike's Avatar
 
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Please use this existing thread:

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/18809-probability-101-a.html

I am closing this thread to prevent a split topic and to make things easier and more organized. Repost your question there.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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