NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Where do you go for new ideas?


Discussion in Psychology and Money Management

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Lornz with 5 posts (7 thanks)
    2. looks_two Deucalion with 4 posts (9 thanks)
    3. looks_3 ThatManFromTexas with 4 posts (5 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Gary with 4 posts (7 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one jacqudy with 7 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Deucalion with 2.3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Gary with 1.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Lornz with 1.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 7,542 views
    2. thumb_up 44 thanks given
    3. group 10 followers
    1. forum 28 posts
    2. attach_file 1 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Where do you go for new ideas?

  #11 (permalink)
 asynchronous 
Austin Texas/USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Proprietary Trading App
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: ES
Posts: 50 since Dec 2011
Thanks Given: 17
Thanks Received: 94

So,... You Want New Ideas,....

.....Consider doing the following;

Pick a time-frame/chart and attempt to explain why the markets do what they are doing.

I am a short term trader (1-10 seconds scalp), so I look for the reasons that cause short term price movement to occur - either bar by bar or to qualify a brief trend.

For the past 7 weeks I have been trying to answer the question "Why" - and I can tell you this, the markets are not (usually) efficient, nor are they (usually) chaotic and they are rarely random. Future price movement happens for a very good (and apparently quantifiable) reason.

(I may end up eating my words after I complete my study)

As I begin to understand the market's dynamics - I design ways to measure and qualify what I see, otherwise I am prone to seeing things that are not really there - that is why developing tools to test a hypothesis is critical (for every 5 hypothesis I develop, 4 fail)

So, You want new ideas - then consider scraping your current indicators (maybe even your trading system) - and try to explain what you see (its OK to go off the deep end (a little insanity can go a long way) - just be able to pull yourself back to reality).

Tip
One of my favorite books is "New Concepts in Technical Trading System" by J. Welles Wilder Jr.

Wilder was a mechanical engineer that used his skills to analyze and explain market events. I read his book, not only to understand what he developed but to get a glimpse into how he solved problems.



I know this suggestion probably sounds crazy, but most of the exceptional traders I am familiar with have done this (or they are just damn lucky).

Then again, maybe I am just

,...Gustav

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
My NT8 Volume Profile Split by Asian/Euro/Open
NinjaTrader
The space time continuum and the dynamics of a financial …
Emini and Emicro Index
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
61 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
38 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
27 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
19 thanks
The Program
18 thanks
  #12 (permalink)
 
ThatManFromTexas's Avatar
 ThatManFromTexas 
Houston,Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Trading: TF
Posts: 2,265 since Feb 2010
Thanks Given: 1,206
Thanks Received: 4,348


Gary View Post


LOL... Probably nothing that someone with your level of experience would benefit from...


@Gary

Actually ... with my loss of hearing... I miss most of what people say ... and misunderstand the
rest....

At my last job as a Walmart Greeter.... a woman asked where to find Tampax that were on sale... I thought she said Thumb tacks... so I asked her if she wanted the kind you push in with your thumb or drive in with a hammer... awkward...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #13 (permalink)
 
Sunil P's Avatar
 Sunil P 
los angeles
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
Trading: cl
Posts: 290 since Jan 2012


She then said it Depends on the time of month.

TMFT: Ya we got those too,same aisle.





PLease lock me up!

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)
 
Gary's Avatar
 Gary 
Near Dallas, Texas, US
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: ZenFire
Trading: CL
Posts: 1,072 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 502
Thanks Received: 2,239


ThatManFromTexas View Post
@ Gary

Actually ... with my loss of hearing... I miss most of what people say ... and misunderstand the
rest....

At my last job as a Walmart Greeter.... a woman asked where to find Tampax that were on sale... I thought she said Thumb tacks... so I asked her if she wanted the kind you push in with your thumb or drive in with a hammer... awkward...

I can always count on your for a laugh.

So, you never finished the story... What was her response to your question?

As consistently profitable traders.. "We get paid to wait, and we wait to get paid."
Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)
 
ThatManFromTexas's Avatar
 ThatManFromTexas 
Houston,Tx
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Trading: TF
Posts: 2,265 since Feb 2010
Thanks Given: 1,206
Thanks Received: 4,348


Gary View Post
I can always count on your for a laugh.

So, you never finished the story... What was her response to your question?

She said something... but I was like ...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #16 (permalink)
 jacqudy 
New York, NY USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: looking for the next one
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: anything that moves
Posts: 14 since Oct 2011
Thanks Given: 34
Thanks Received: 19


furytrader View Post
what are your best sources of trading ideas - that is, where do you get inspiration for new trading strategies?

There have been some great suggestions in this thread thus far. I agree with Mike's idea about not jumping from methodology to methodology. But to Gary's point, if you don't already have a strat/method/edge that works for you, that has got to be the place to start. Without a solid, written set of ground rules and a short list of basic strategies, you'll never get off the ground. Granted it's a bit of a catch-22 - how do you know what works if you don't try several things. But to get any traction in trading you have to settle on one or two strats that you've seen work, that feel right to you - that you can wrap your brain around for the instrument(s) and timeframe(s) you want to trade. Then, as Mike says, you've got to hammer on these to tackle the psych/emotional/discipline factors.

I got some inspiration on this topic from Brett Steenbarger's "The Daily Trading Coach." He suggests something along the lines of what @asynchronous is saying: choose an instrument; make some observations or come up with some basic questions/hypotheses about price movement or reaction to levels. Then vet these hypotheses using historical data. The goal is to look for definitive regularity. You're not looking for needles in a haystack you're looking for trends.

I kicked off my efforts with some basic studies of TF. I trade with a few people who get together almost every day and trade the TF exclusively. Over time it became apparent that TF bounces frequently off the prior globex session high level. Using off the shelf tools (Excel and Access) and a 6 year dump of 5 min candlesticks, I did some digging and came up with some pretty basic but compelling information that has helped my trading. Shortly after diving in we determined that TF hits its globex high 72% of the time. That's huge. That's probability I can take to the bank - that I can begin to build some rules around.

Some other stats: Those days that TF hit globex high, it opened an average of 2.9 points below it (long bias?). Those days it didn't hit, it opened up an average of 6.3 points below it (short bias?).

I went on from there to look for other high probability occurrences and began to come up with more questions: what happens after price hits the globex high? Does it bounce and reverse or does it blast through? When it bounces, what's the average travel after 10 minutes? 1st reversal? 2nd reversal, etc. You get the picture.

Once I'm done with globex high, I'll move on to g-low, PP, S1,2,3 and R1,2,3, and other studies. After that, same studies, other instruments.

Tip
Ideas >> hypotheses >> data mining >> high probability occurrences >> strategy development >> backtesting >> sim testing >> testing the waters live



Anyway, lengthy post but I hope it helps. I posted some early results here:


Am happy to share findings and data files.

Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)
 
Deucalion's Avatar
 Deucalion 
Calgary, Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multiple
Broker: Multiple
Trading: Multiple
Posts: 428 since Aug 2009

New ideas...I'd like to work on old ideas....BM said it well, the point of this thread is skewed. "New ideas" must not be changing charts or new markets or new time frames (but, traders are on different steps....those closer to step 38 have different priorities than those leaving the station).....

The evolution is in my mind, keeping in mind my 2012 goals, efforts for this year are to find a simple way to sharpen my edge...my focus and subconscious skills.....

Tuning my intuition is priority #1, TigerTrader had a good link in one on this posts...traderhabits.com. I am intrigued by Luminosity's cognitive training approach, I am studying their research........this stuff tickles my curiosity meter to 11...

The structured traning approach to unlock your mind...sounds grand....Luminosity's paid memebrship is cheap enough....and it seems credible enough a warrant a serious read....we'll see if this has any meat or is just a bunch of big words (like everything else)


Edit - in seemingly unrelated material, just remembered reading about Montgomery and Rommel's cat and mouse dance in Northern Africa in WWII reiterates the pertinence of mind games in seemingly unequal competitive endeavors.

Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)
 
Lornz's Avatar
 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CQG, Excel
Trading: CL
Posts: 1,193 since Apr 2010


Deucalion View Post
Tuning my intuition is priority #1, TigerTrader had a good link in one on this posts...traderhabits.com. I am intrigued by Luminosity's cognitive training approach, I am studying their research........this stuff tickles my curiosity meter to 11...

The structured traning approach to unlock your mind...sounds grand....Luminosity's paid memebrship is cheap enough....and it seems credible enough a warrant a serious read....we'll see if this has any meat or is just a bunch of big words (like everything else)

I've used Lumosity for about 15 months and I quite like it. I just use it to "exercise" my working memory and improve my concentration. You won't "unlock your mind", but it will make it feel sharper. Some of the exercises made my brain hurt when I first started, but now they are routine.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)
 
Deucalion's Avatar
 Deucalion 
Calgary, Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multiple
Broker: Multiple
Trading: Multiple
Posts: 428 since Aug 2009


Lornz View Post
I've used Lumosity for about 15 months and I quite like it. I just use it to "exercise" my working memory and improve my concentration. You won't "unlock your mind", but it will make it feel sharper. Some of the exercises made my brain hurt when I first started, but now they are routine.

The other thing that this indirectly links to is the function of dopamine (and in an opposing manner seratonin) in performnce endeavors. The pathways that generate elevated neural performance in a naturally generated fashion (rather than by drugs or supplements). And this of course leads to lifestsyle and food and all that good stuff......

From what I have read, and on a purely layman basis, it seems activities that generate naturally elevated levels of dopamine can be conducive to elevated trading perforemce (all other factors being equal)...being simplistic........so I have definitively found my reading material for the year.

Reply With Quote
  #20 (permalink)
 
Massive l's Avatar
 Massive l 
OR/USA
Legendary /NQ Trader
 
Experience: None
Posts: 2,129 since Mar 2011
Thanks Given: 1,859
Thanks Received: 5,106


I used the search engines to study everything and
anything I could on risk/trade/money mgmt, price action, volume profile, time and sales, DOM, etc.
That is how I stumbled upon futures.io (formerly BMT).
Therefore, I came to futures.io (formerly BMT) for new ideas. Glad I did.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on April 9, 2012


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts