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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management
I still think the 50/50 right/wrong ratio is not appropriate. Maybe it's a question of semantic but if your edge is greater than 50% then the very next trade has an implied chance to be right equal to your edge (+/-) otherwise why would you risk placing a trade. The way it is formulated here implies that all of your trades are independent but it is not the case. However, it is safe to say you are not sure at 100% if the very next trade will fall within your overall cumulative winning % so far.
Big Mike
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator Developer Swing Trader
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Since you believe you can predict the odds of the very next trade, why do you take losing trades? Just skip those.....
I don't understand either; if every trade is 50/50 how can a string of trades be any better than 50/50?
The only way it can work if winners are greater than losers
trendisyourfriend
Quebec Canada
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I agree you can't predict at 100% the outcomes of a trade. But seeing each trade as a 50/50 proposition is not exact either. Don't read me wrong, i know what you mean but you are not using the right words.