Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management - Psychology and Money Management | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management
Updated: Views / Replies:21,214 / 135
Created: by Big Mike Attachments:5

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 5  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

  #71 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,220 received


emerson View Post
I would like to see variations of these experiments with 1000's of samples.

Me too. Maybe he will attach the spreadsheet to a post, or someone can spend a few minutes and re-create it from scratch?

@vvhg?

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #72 (permalink)
Elite Member
Tulsa, OK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw, Ninja Trader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Ninjatrader/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: G&L Tribute Series Rampage
 
omni72's Avatar
 
Posts: 348 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 582 given, 619 received


TI Anon View Post
In FT's example one of the 14 trades in the 2 contract 5-tick stop/5-tick winner + 5-tick stop/10-tick winner, had only a "1" tick loss not 10 ticks as the other losers. This went against the rules he stated at the start and would change his expectancy, perhaps even moving it to break even or a loss. (This is a good example of critical examination and due diligence)

This didn't go against any rules he set up. Trades 5, 8, & 14 had a best scale out (BSO) of 5-ticks and got stopped out on the second contract. On trade #5 he didn't have a 1-tick stoploss; there was slippage of one tick when he took the 5-tick stop on the second contract. On the other two trades, the net was zero because one reached the initial 5-tick target and the 2nd reached the 5-tick stop instead of the 10-tick target. Trade #11 experienced a 1-tick slippage on the stop as well. He also experienced positive and negative slippage on full winners.

I didn't perform the actual tests but that's what my critical examination and due diligence indicates to me

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~ Seneca
Attached Thumbnails
Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management-ft71-spreadsheet-2012-03-23.png  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to omni72 for this post:
 
  #73 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Oslo, Norway
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: CQG, Excel
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Lornz's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,198 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 500 given, 1,235 received


I watched the webinar and I must say that I take offense at his surfing comment.

There are no wave machines in Oslo, but there is one in BÝ:





However, that's not a proper way to surf, so why not take a trip to Lofoten instead?




I demand an immediate retraction and apology!

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Lornz for this post:
 
  #74 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bala, PA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Mirus, IB
Favorite Futures: SPY, Oil, Euro
 
monpere's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,858 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 300 given, 3,276 received


emerson View Post
...
I would like to see variations of these experiments with 1000's of samples.
...

I would like to see the 1000 trade sample run comparing the all in/scale-out to the all in/all out, but with the exact same trades. I guess to do that, you'd have to do the coin toss by hand, and then calculate the outcome of the trades for both methods from the price chart, rather then actually by taking the trades.

Reply With Quote
 
  #75 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,669 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 776 given, 8,724 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

With these sorts of studies there's a few things to keep in mind:


1 - The 5 tick target/5 tick stop seems like it should be a 50/50 trade right?
It isn't.
The market always has 2 prices. A bid and an offer.
If you enter with a buy market order, you will get the offer price, the bid price will obviously be 1 tick below. If the market ticks down 4 prices, you will already be at your stop. If the market ticks up 5 prices, you will be at your target, still - being at your target does not guarantee you a fill. So, you really need price to move up 6 ticks to get a 5 tick profit.

So - a 5 tick target/5 tick stop means you lose if price goes against you 4 ticks and you gain if price moves your way 6 ticks.

If you enter on a limit order, you have a slightly different issue in that you need the market to move against you first and then move your way afterwards. That's a different proposition.

2 - Any method that uses random entry and a trailing stop is not actually trading randomness. Such a system will work under certain circumstances. If your market is trending, the system will be profitable. If the market is rangebound, it will lose. So - whilst on the surface, it appears you are trading at random, that is not really the case. What you are doing is making a bet that the market will trend more than it will chop. The trailing stop portion is the part of the system that requires specific market condition to work. Most people miss this because they think the 'edge' can only exist in the entry part of a strategy, when in fact that does not have to be the case.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #76 (permalink)
Elite Member
Tulsa, OK
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Jigsaw, Ninja Trader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Ninjatrader/Rithmic
Favorite Futures: G&L Tribute Series Rampage
 
omni72's Avatar
 
Posts: 348 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 582 given, 619 received

Theoretical Average

For anyone interested in FT71's post about the Theoretical Average he discussed in the most recent webinar, here is the link:

Anatomy of a scaling trade

On a totally unrelated topic, at about 1hr36min into the webinar it sounds like @BigMike has the same text notification ringtone from Dexter that I have. If so, I'd love to be able to figure out the odds of that happening.

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~ Seneca

Last edited by omni72; March 24th, 2012 at 02:34 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to omni72 for this post:
 
  #77 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,220 received


omni72 View Post
On a totally unrelated topic, at about 1hr36min into the webinar it sounds like @BigMike has the same text notification ringtone from Dexter that I have. If so, I'd love to be able to figure out what were the odds of that happening.

Hehe, yes I am a big fan of Dexter. I think I got the ringtone from Zedge on Android. It is my text ringtone, and my other favorite show is Game of Thrones, so that is my call ringtone

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
 
  #78 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago,IL
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/TT
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 25 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5 given, 15 received


Big Mike View Post
I'm not following what you mean.. ?

You are saying his spreadsheet is wrong?

Mike

No, I'm confident his spreadsheet is right.

The point I was trying to make (poorly it seems), is in this series of 14 trades, 1 trade (#5) was mainly responsible for the result. And, since the sample size was so small the results were of little, if any, practical value.

You commented about the series of posts of traders becoming frustrated, etc. and quitting in disgust. After years of seeing people come and go, one reasons stands out as the cause. They all start trading without understanding the task at hand by using the same type of education; after-the-fact and faulty statistical analysis by self promoted trainers. Successful trainers train, successful traders trade.

One of the most amazing things, never discussed, that contributes to the high failure rate is the large amount of effort put forth in training people how to "embrace losing". Brokers, trainers and even peers all do it. Brokers because they want to limit their liability. Trainers because they know their method doesn't work,(they used it and it didn't work for them-that's why they became trainers). And, peers because they have been brainwashed by the other two.

When the Chicago Bulls were interviewing Derek Rose, before drafting him, they asked what he didn't like most about playing basketball. He immediately responded, "I hate losing!", they knew at that moment they had a potential MVP. It's no wonder so many traders fail, when so many are teaching them to be "great losers". It is only possible to train "how to be a winner" when you have an actual winning strategy. Without one, you have to teach "how to be a good loser", or you'll soon be out of business.

(I know there is a good chance I'll be attacked for these comments. I'll only consider the attacks by long term profitable traders-with verifiable proof- to be of any consideration, what so ever. Comments by others will be treated in kind.)

Reply With Quote
 
  #79 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Szczecin
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, writing own now
 
Posts: 212 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 47 given, 102 received

I find that a very interesting statement. Not in a negative way.

You HAVE to not bother about the individual looser - obviously. NO strategy is perfect, so if you get nervous with one or a small nmber of loosers then - this is a problem.

At the same time you have to seriously work on the bigger picture and hate loosing money there. And duefully always evaluate trades against the larger picture (i.e. are 5 losses a statistical outlier that WILL come when you trade even with a 80% profit rate often enough) or is the edge more permanently fading?

Staticics are very hard things to deal with. Trading often enough even an 80% profitable setup will give you 10 losses in a row quite regtularly, if you trade 5 markets with a strat making 10 setups per day per market. That is 11000 setups per year (5 markets, 10 setups on 220 days each). The sheer number of trades makes a very unlikely event (10 losses in a row) something that will occur with a certain regularity. But when do you analytically start to review the edge? And how long do you assume that losses in a row are normal part of the game?

Interesting enough many tools (Nina etc.) do not have support for that at all. Make an expectancy, then compare trades in timeframe / nr of executions against expectancy projection.

Reply With Quote
 
  #80 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,220 received



TI Anon View Post
One of the most amazing things, never discussed, that contributes to the high failure rate is the large amount of effort put forth in training people how to "embrace losing". Brokers, trainers and even peers all do it. Brokers because they want to limit their liability. Trainers because they know their method doesn't work,(they used it and it didn't work for them-that's why they became trainers). And, peers because they have been brainwashed by the other two.

When the Chicago Bulls were interviewing Derek Rose, before drafting him, they asked what he didn't like most about playing basketball. He immediately responded, "I hate losing!", they knew at that moment they had a potential MVP. It's no wonder so many traders fail, when so many are teaching them to be "great losers". It is only possible to train "how to be a winner" when you have an actual winning strategy. Without one, you have to teach "how to be a good loser", or you'll soon be out of business.

(I know there is a good chance I'll be attacked for these comments. I'll only consider the attacks by long term profitable traders-with verifiable proof- to be of any consideration, what so ever. Comments by others will be treated in kind.)

No trader wants to lose money.

But if you take the Derrick Rose example, embracing losers or being a good loser would be equivalent to Derrick missing a lay up. If he flips out, loses control, throws out all his strengths of how to play good ball and just starts fouling everyone and hoarding the ball, missing shot after shot after shot, then he is going to have a problem.

He doesn't do this. He is a good loser when you equate a loss to a particular shot within the game. He keeps his cool and doesn't focus on the missed shot. No. He moves on to the next shot, because that is what matters.

Traders need to be a good loser in the terms they need to learn that missing a lay up is part of the game. It is not a big deal, so don't make it one. By being a good loser on these individual plays, or trades, then the game as a whole (trading session, day, week) can come out on top as a winner because you've remained in control and allowed your experience as a player prevail.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
FT71's Price Risk vs. Information Risk argument keymoo Psychology and Money Management 23 April 1st, 2017 12:46 PM
FT71 www.futurestrader71.com review Big Mike Trading Reviews and Vendors 26 July 31st, 2014 12:54 PM
Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Volume Profile Big Mike Traders Hideout 80 November 12th, 2013 09:06 PM
Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) Volume Profile Methodology and Examples Big Mike Traders Hideout 98 March 7th, 2013 04:13 PM
Concerning risk per trade sizing Big Mike Psychology and Money Management 151 April 4th, 2012 10:04 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:46 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-12 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.234.255.29