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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management
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Webinar: FuturesTrader71 (FT71) on Risk, Sizing, Scaling and Trade Management

  #111 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Can you really rely on volume profile analysis in hindsight? Isn't it possible and likely that the volume profile as it looks on a historical chart, looked very different in the middle of the day while the profile was developing?

I don't know about that software, but gomi's MP adjusts to the bars visible on the chart, so you can see precisely what the profile would have looked like at any time. It's the ongoing development of the profile that tells you what's happening intraday.

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  #112 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Can you really rely on volume profile analysis in hindsight? Isn't it possible and likely that the volume profile as it looks on a historical chart, looked very different in the middle of the day while the profile was developing?

Sure, you can but are you referring to that particular day or on a composite of a few years? I know people actually initiate and exit trades from these areas but I prefer to watch the volume there and join the bid or offer should there be an interest there.

Looking at intra-day volume profiles to formulate or manage trades can be tricky but you have to just pay attention to the PA and volume. But I would say the big picture volume composite would have a greater impact than any intra-day volume areas. So, in the example I provided, price was sold into which created a low volume area at the high, then a high volume area around the open which rejected price or put a better way, there weren't enough buyers interested in that price range. So price dropped lower looking for buyers. Some buyers most likely stepped in and were able to push price back up to the previous high volume area where buyers were no longer interested in price and sellers gained control again from there. And so on.

The actual profile will definitely look different obviously as the day develops. Per the chart, you can see a majority of the volume took place at the low of the day which appeared to be stops being blown out and shorts probably covering as well as potential new buyers coming in based on what the big picture's structure was at the time making that area a large price acceptance area for the end of the day. I would imagine the point of control shifted from the high volume area in the AM down to the big blowout area at the bottom of the profile in the afternoon.


Last edited by Private Banker; March 25th, 2012 at 11:41 AM. Reason: Typo
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  #113 (permalink)
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FT71,
Forgot to say, i also like your idea of preserving "emotional capital".
i personally don't think i could ever trade futures unless i had a massive amount of capital already built up in my account.
but under those circumstances, i can see it could be good.

~M

Du sublime au ridicule, il n'ya qu'un pas. ~Napoleon Bonaparte
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  #114 (permalink)
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FuturesTrader71 View Post

TI Anonymous takes my words to mean that you should just lose and be happy about it.

It seems you have missed my point. I'll take Big Mike's advice and rephrase.

My comments in regards to losing were in response to Big Mike's inquiry about the plight of some on the board. It was presented as an alternate opinion, not about FT's words. In the most basic terms here it is:

1. The mind is a goal seeking device.
2. If you "program" it to be a "good loser" that's exactly what you will get.
3. Brokers, trainers and peers reinforce the concept of "good loser".
4. Traders then lose and become frustrated and disillusioned.
5. They got exactly what they were trained and convinced was the goal they were seeking.

Again, this is in the most basic of terms. Nothing about FT, just an alternate (rarely if ever discussed) explanation to what happens.

FT and I actually have the same goal- to help other traders. We just do it in different ways. Mine has to do with injecting "common sense" and "critical thinking" into the process.

(For further reading see-Maxwell Maltz. It is a place to start, but not the destination.)

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  #115 (permalink)
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Another Great Webinar by you-know-who.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Isn't Online Anonymity Fun ?

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  #116 (permalink)
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Don't know if anyone posted this, but here's the link to the Trader Intervention webinar that Big Mike referred to. Well worth listening to.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #117 (permalink)
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Anagami View Post
Don't know if anyone posted this, but here's the link to the Trader Intervention webinar that Big Mike referred to. Well worth listening to.

Thanks for digging up the link. And yes, I think this guy really clearly demonstrates the cycle of what a lot of people go through, right up to the end where he kept making bad decisions even when faced with how obviously poor they were.... and even when the webinar was done, I wonder if he went ahead with his bad plan, or if he really did take the advice to heart and make changes.

If anyone knows how he is trading today, or what actions he took after the Trader Intervention, please let me know.

I don't mean to ridicule this guy, and I also don't want to pierce the veil of anonymity and respect his right to privacy. But his case study is really a good example of what I hear on a near daily basis when people contact me and share their stories or ask for advice.

Mike

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  #118 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Thanks for digging up the link. And yes, I think this guy really clearly demonstrates the cycle of what a lot of people go through, right up to the end where he kept making bad decisions even when faced with how obviously poor they were.... and even when the webinar was done, I wonder if he went ahead with his bad plan, or if he really did take the advice to heart and make changes.

If anyone knows how he is trading today, or what actions he took after the Trader Intervention, please let me know.

I don't mean to ridicule this guy, and I also don't want to pierce the veil of anonymity and respect his right to privacy. But his case study is really a good example of what I hear on a near daily basis when people contact me and share their stories or ask for advice.

Mike

Despite his losses, it seemed like the guy didn't hit the bottom just yet... didn't feel like he was psychologically ready to accept what it takes to trade, to give up on focus and attachment to money/results...etc. As long as it stays on a purely intellectual level, it's just talk, and the monster is still there to trip him up the next time.

The big question is: how does one overturn the deep mechanisms that make you go crazy? Talking with somebody takes you only so far.... and we're so good at bullshitting ourselves... and the next time you break a promise to yourself, you see it was all just talk.

A fundamental re-orientation is necessary. Have to break some bones in yourself and set them right.

"...the degree to which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader." - Mark Douglas
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  #119 (permalink)
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The best part of this webinar for me was the coin toss and taking a trade based on it but I was hoping it could be more extensive.

Do you guys know of any other sources which make a similar study or experiment?

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  #120 (permalink)
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jonc View Post
The best part of this webinar for me was the coin toss and taking a trade based on it but I was hoping it could be more extensive.

Do you guys know of any other sources which make a similar study or experiment?

I haven't read it, nor do I endorse reading it, but Van Tharp wrote about random entries in his book. There have been several discussions on the subject on other message boards.

Amazon.com: Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom (9780071478717): Van Tharp: Books

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