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The market is not out to get you
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The market is not out to get you

  #31 (permalink)
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Pipsqueak here says use mental stops. also, stops which are not fixed on a price but rather a break of a trendline/flag, whatever little pattern is accumulating. But pipsqueak is not yet consistently profitable, so you probably shdn't pay me any mind. cmon, don't you *know* when to get out? the thing is making yourself do it.

Du sublime au ridicule, il n'ya qu'un pas. ~Napoleon Bonaparte
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  #32 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I've always felt it is not a true zero sum game, because the broker is the house, and the house always wins... (equivalent to zero/double zero on Roulette wheel).

Mike

For all practical purposes, you are right, of course. However, I would argue that they are not part of the game. They are facilitators, or maybe a different game wrapped around it. Their presence does not interfere with the original game, which is zero-sum.

Brokers are merely tollbooths -- at least in theory.

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  #33 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
You dang tootin' they do... I didn't realize how good they were at it until they started gunning my stops while I was in SIM ... so I started paper trading ... with real paper and a pencil... they STILL gunned my stops... Greedy Bastards.....

There is a camera in the room some were they are watching your every move
use tinfoil wrapped around your head when using paper and pencil stops to protect against mind meld telepathy

Nothing so Impressive as Simplicity
D.G. Watts
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  #34 (permalink)
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I can't quote all the posts I would like to quote as any reader would get completely lost, so I try without.
Although the market is not a direct one on one competition, it still is a competition. And it is probably the most difficult kind of competition there is: all against all, kind of dodgeball without the line in the middle...
But the bottom line still is that in order to make money trading I have to take money out your (not neccessarily you personally) account and put it into my account. And I will happily do so as often as I can...

If you are not out there to 'get' the others, you are probably the one they make their money from.


Vvhg

Hic Rhodos, hic salta.
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  #35 (permalink)
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CRM5096 View Post
There is a camera in the room some were they are watching your every move
use tinfoil wrapped around your head when using paper and pencil stops to protect against mind meld telepathy

I think they implanted a microchip in me when I was in Chicago in the 70's. They knew back then I was going to trade futures. See that kid....get him!

Damn illuminata.

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  #36 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
If you are going to trade 5m, 15m, 60m charts and placing your stops at pivot points from the pivot factory, and above yesterday's daily high, etc, etc, You can be sure 'THEY' will be gunning for your stops. Because you are doing what hundreds of thousands of other traders are doing, ant the 'gunners' know it. 'They' read the same manual, and are beating you over the head with said manual.

When you try to take that breakout over the 30 minute opening range, along with 700,000 of your other buddies following the holy manual, guess what, 'they' are licking their chops waiting for you. The same 60m s/r levels I am seeing, is also being seen by massive numbers of other eyes as well. The same 15m double top I am seeing is being called out in 700 trading rooms, and the big market players are counting on it. I don't need that kind of competition.

I believe if you want to beat them, stop falling into their trap, you either have to play the game they are playing, or devise a method that capitalizes on the side effects of their game. My approach is to be the little fish that swims along in the wake of the whale feeding off of him, without him even realizing I am there. I don't want to be in the school of little fishes swimming head on against the whale. To me, this means not trading popular time frames, popular patterns, popular levels, popular methods, and not requiring the market to make major extended moves from one popular major area to the next in order for me to capture profits. There's plenty of patterns, plenty of opportunity inside of those areas (wake) to capitalize on while the big fishes setup their kills.

Hello MonPere

I totally agree with you about those big fish eating out on well served plate of delicious, juicy stop loss of the crowd. While I agree about their technics, I'm still looking to learn more on how to profit from that.

One thing that I observed is that they will positioned a high of period in a configuration to profit from the stop loss of participants later

Whit this picture, you could see

1- A new spike low is created, Price rally up with a nice Wide Range bar.

2- Participant that see the market down, will enter on the next bar and place a buy back stop loss on the last spike high

3- Market do continu to go down and create new lower spike low. Those that are on the short side do lower their stop loss

4- since the first spike low as not being traded yet, new participants do see an opportunity to go long if price do go above last spike high

5- A last small glitch, just above a previous spike high is suffiscient to trigger a massive wide range bar that go to the opposite side, eating all the stop loss from those who where in the short side

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  #37 (permalink)
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Just some thoughts here.

The futures and options markets can't be zero sum...unless you get your hardware,
software, and data for free. Then maybe one could say that.

I guess the more random the price moves, the more it would seem that the market
is out to get you.

The market is composed of algorithmic trading by pension funds all the way to
discretionary trading by individuals, but by the time it reaches you it's just this
thing. This thing that can't be seen or touched. You can sort of present to yourself
an abstraction of it using 5 minute candles or 4 tick no gap range bars, or whatever.
Even with these, it's just variations, or maybe one
might say, different perspectives of the past. But the future, which one wants to see, is
never ever on the screen.

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  #38 (permalink)
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arjfca View Post
Hello MonPere

I totally agree with you about those big fish eating out on well served plate of delicious, juicy stop loss of the crowd. While I agree about their technics, I'm still looking to learn more on how to profit from that.

One thing that I observed is that they will positioned a high of period in a configuration to profit from the stop loss of participants later

Whit this picture, you could see

1- A new spike low is created, Price rally up with a nice Wide Range bar.

2- Participant that see the market down, will enter on the next bar and place a buy back stop loss on the last spike high

3- Market do continu to go down and create new lower spike low. Those that are on the short side do lower their stop loss

4- since the first spike low as not being traded yet, new participants do see an opportunity to go long if price do go above last spike high

5- A last small glitch, just above a previous spike high is suffiscient to trigger a massive wide range bar that go to the opposite side, eating all the stop loss from those who where in the short side


hmmmmm, 175 seconds, is basically a 3min chart.

one has to stop and give pause,

ok (just paused), and ask themselves WHAT creates those spikes?

I'm tired of boring persons with my experiences, but I will say that when auto triggered executions occur at market prices, whether auto-traders, auto triggered algorythms or just stoploss orders, each firing upon "price being touched", then they are wild card orders entered at market prices.

it is from those wild card free range market orders that those spikes come from, not always or even necessarily from some nefarious "big traders gunning stops". One has to make a living from some edge, and those un-named big traders throwing around tens of millions of margin, going after retail stop orders just doesn't pass the logic and reason test of most risk managers. So, essentially you have to look somewhere else for the culprits.

I once fired off a market order to buy, with a preset target during a financial news announcement, and got filled immediately and posted an immediate $600 profit. It felt so good, I wanted to do it again. Upon closer scrutiny, I realized that by the time my order hit the market, I was well north of the body of the 1min candle (as well as any other interval candle), and my close order was even higher on that wick, both well north of the body of the 1min candle. Under normal circumstances, this is never recommended practice, however, it just worked out that way.

So, perhaps the markets' not out to get you or anyone else, but somehow, psychologically, we need such a plot and characters to account for our circumstantial failures.

Trading is 150% risk in a 100% world; ground rules!

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  #39 (permalink)
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I'm of the opinion it's HFT causing all those spikes on so many markets now on too many bars. They trade all the time even during low volume. Never stops, never gets tired like a Terminator lol. So maybe not personally out to get any individual retail trader, but makes it harder to see price action on small time frames and can affect overall short term sentiment with all those spikes.

Here's an enlightening video by 60 minutes. Old now, but interesting to see how all the real big firms refused an interview while a smaller independent hft shop was ok with it.

Wall Street: The speed traders - 60 Minutes - CBS News


Last edited by Cloudy; April 7th, 2012 at 09:47 PM.
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  #40 (permalink)
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Cloudy View Post
I'm of the opinion it's HFT causing all those spikes on so many markets now on too many bars. They trade all the time even during low volume. Never stops, never gets tired like a Terminator lol. So maybe not personally out to get any individual retail trader, but makes it harder to see price action on small time frames and can affect overall short term sentiment with all those spikes.

Here's an enlightening video by 60 minutes. Old now, but interesting to see how all the real big firms refused an interview while a smaller independent hft shop was ok with it.

Wall Street: The speed traders - 60 Minutes - CBS News

I watched the video. Cool. The video is less than a year old, so it is pretty much up to date I'd say.

"We do not know what is going on inside those boxes. There's all types of allegations
about what's going on inside there. And basically what can happen is you can have these
meltdowns where you can have a computer just go crazy and cause all kinds of problems..."

From the video you posted. Quote is by Former Senator Ted Kaufman of Delaware

I guess the video below is what's he's talking about.





I posted about this before to a small extent. Here:

https://futures.io/traders-hideout/8-some-highly-recommended-books-23.html#post202612

Apparently there is actually some talk about using quantum entanglement for communications in the
Kevin Slavin video. This might just allow for instantaneous data transfer. Instantaneous. Distance doesn't
matter with quantum entanglement. At least that is my take on it.

It seems the trend is for algos to reach near 100% of all trades in the future???

- Stephen

Algos
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Algea (Ancient Greek: Ἄλγεα; singular: Ἄλγος) is used by Hesiod in the plural as the personification of sorrows and griefs, which are there represented as the daughters of Eris, Greek goddess of strife.[1][2] Algos in Greek is a neuter noun literally meaning "pain". She or he was a sibling to Lethe, Limos, Horkos, and Ponos.[3]

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