NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





What is a reasonable return


Discussion in Psychology and Money Management

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one bijeremiad with 8 posts (16 thanks)
    2. looks_two SammyD with 6 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 6 posts (17 thanks)
    4. looks_4 josh with 6 posts (10 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one mokodo with 6 thanks per post
    2. looks_two mattz with 3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 2.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 bijeremiad with 2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 32,992 views
    2. thumb_up 164 thanks given
    3. group 44 followers
    1. forum 117 posts
    2. attach_file 5 attachments




 
Search this Thread

What is a reasonable return

  #71 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
who cares
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: nobody interested
Broker: none
Trading: forget about it
Posts: 6,939 since Feb 2012
Thanks Given: 6,196
Thanks Received: 15,609


bushido View Post
Seems like people are using different bases to calculate return. I think its more accurate if return is calculated over the account size (assuming entire account is for day trading futures) rather than margin posted for contracts traded.

Very easy to see the difference:
If you have a trading account and trade "all in" - the ROI is on that investment.
Assuming you put only 2% of your trading account at risk - the ROI has to be divided by 50 to get the percentage.
Believing that more than half of the traders are trading at higher than 2% risk (with small accounts inevitable)
that ROI percentage calculation is quite different from that one with a better cushion.
As mentioned - it depends first on your money management combined with your trading consistency and a relative
small drawdown. This is a factor one could calculate and name it efficiency.

GFIs1

Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
Quant vue
Trading Reviews and Vendors
Better Renko Gaps
The Elite Circle
Cheap historycal L1 data for stocks
Stocks and ETFs
How to apply profiles
Traders Hideout
 
  #72 (permalink)
 bbstulsa 
Tulsa, OK
 
Posts: 4 since Jan 2013

Sounds to me like 5-10% per week might be hard to do....SO why trade? If 1-2% per week is even far fetched then trading is useless. I expect 5-10% per week can be done on any size account. But I'm no professional. I personally know 1 guy with $15,000 account that regularly does over $1000.00 everyday. He must be the exception to the norm.

I may hang up my trading dreams before I get started! Thanks for saving me!

Reply With Quote
  #73 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,666 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,892
Thanks Received: 7,360



bbstulsa View Post
I personally know 1 guy with $15,000 account that regularly does over $1000.00 everyday. He must be the exception to the norm.

Ask this friend to teach you. Seriously. Anyone pulling in $250K per year on a $15K account is unbelievably good. Listen to what he says and does.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #74 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Posts: 6,246 since Jan 2011
Thanks Given: 6,784
Thanks Received: 18,257


bbstulsa View Post
I personally know 1 guy with $15,000 account that regularly does over $1000.00 everyday.

Then he is overleveraged and risking too much. Let's say someone risks something semi-reasonable like 1% per trade (which is still far too much). You're telling me that he takes 6 trades a day risking 1%, and making 1% on each; or, he takes 2 trades, risking 1% on each and getting a 3R return on each, etc? No, not likely. He probably risks much more, and has so far gotten lucky and has not gotten blown out of the water. Ask your friend what his typical drawdown on a trade is, if he even makes that much, which is not likely (have you seen his statements, or has he just told you this?). One does not make 6% per day, "every day" as you say, with reasonable risk.

I'm not trying to piss on stories of successful traders; after all, Jack Schwager has claimed that Marty Schwartz (I think it was him) at one time pulled 25% per month (and withdrew it), which is 1% per day. THAT, I think is amazing but doable, and I believe it 100%. Any trader would dream of consistent returns like that. But 6% per day, every day? Someone's lying, or lucky he still has an account. Sorry, reality trumps fish tales, and math doesn't lie.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #75 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,666 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,892
Thanks Received: 7,360


josh View Post
Then he is overleveraged and risking too much. Let's say someone risks something semi-reasonable like 1% per trade (which is still far too much). You're telling me that he takes 6 trades a day risking 1%, and making 1% on each; or, he takes 2 trades, risking 1% on each and getting a 3R return on each, etc? No, not likely. He probably risks much more, and has so far gotten lucky and has not gotten blown out of the water. Ask your friend what his typical drawdown on a trade is, if he even makes that much, which is not likely (have you seen his statements, or has he just told you this?). One does not make 6% per day, "every day" as you say, with reasonable risk.

I'm not trying to piss on stories of successful traders; after all, Jack Schwager has claimed that Marty Schwartz (I think it was him) at one time pulled 25% per month (and withdrew it), which is 1% per day. THAT, I think is amazing but doable, and I believe it 100%. Any trader would dream of consistent returns like that. But 6% per day, every day? Someone's lying, or lucky he still has an account. Sorry, reality trumps fish tales, and math doesn't lie.

Likely this is the reality of the friend's situation.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #76 (permalink)
 mongoose 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: None
Platform: oil super computer
Trading: multiple
Posts: 272 since Jun 2011
Thanks Given: 817
Thanks Received: 433


josh View Post
Then he is overleveraged and risking too much. Let's say someone risks something semi-reasonable like 1% per trade (which is still far too much). You're telling me that he takes 6 trades a day risking 1%, and making 1% on each; or, he takes 2 trades, risking 1% on each and getting a 3R return on each, etc? No, not likely. He probably risks much more, and has so far gotten lucky and has not gotten blown out of the water. Ask your friend what his typical drawdown on a trade is, if he even makes that much, which is not likely (have you seen his statements, or has he just told you this?). One does not make 6% per day, "every day" as you say, with reasonable risk.

I'm not trying to piss on stories of successful traders; after all, Jack Schwager has claimed that Marty Schwartz (I think it was him) at one time pulled 25% per month (and withdrew it), which is 1% per day. THAT, I think is amazing but doable, and I believe it 100%. Any trader would dream of consistent returns like that. But 6% per day, every day? Someone's lying, or lucky he still has an account. Sorry, reality trumps fish tales, and math doesn't lie.

Just because he has 15,000 in his account does not mean that is what he is basing his risk off of. He could also have 100k sitting safetly in his bank account that he doesnt feel safe giving a broker especially after pfg. Or he could be making the whole thing up, there is no way to know, but we can sit here and debate it all day long, the joys of the internet.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #77 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Posts: 6,246 since Jan 2011
Thanks Given: 6,784
Thanks Received: 18,257


mongoose View Post
Just because he has 15,000 in his account does not mean that is what he is basing his risk off of. He could also have 100k sitting safetly in his bank account that he doesnt feel safe giving a broker especially after pfg.

Good point, did not think of it this way. Then if the hypothetical 100K is indeed to be used as capital, then we can safely say that his "account" is $115K, in which case this is still an exceptionally good return (1% per day) but more in the realm of possibility. The risk is based off of money one intends to use as risk capital, so in the example you give, the account size is actually much larger than $15K, the risk is smaller, and the gain is smaller.

Reply With Quote
  #78 (permalink)
 bbstulsa 
Tulsa, OK
 
Posts: 4 since Jan 2013

I must be missing something! With 6 tick stop loss in place and a target of 4 ticks with a $10,000 account, No one here can profit $500.00 on 1 trade trading 10 contracts? I know it can be done 4-6 times per day.

Why would you need a $100,000.00 account to trade 10 contracts?

Reply With Quote
  #79 (permalink)
 
josh's Avatar
 josh 
Georgia, US
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: Denali+Rithmic
Trading: ES, NQ, YM
Posts: 6,246 since Jan 2011
Thanks Given: 6,784
Thanks Received: 18,257


bbstulsa View Post
I must be missing something! With 6 tick stop loss in place and a target of 4 ticks with a $10,000 account, No one here can profit $500.00 on 1 trade trading 10 contracts? I know it can be done 4-6 times per day.

Why would you need a $100,000.00 account to trade 10 contracts?

Sure, any lucky fool can profit $500 on one trade. But only a fool would continue to play such a loser's game if he did happen to win once.

One loss, and you are down $800, 8% of your account. Have you ever had 3 losses in a row? You are down 25%, and now must make 33% profit to get back to breakeven.

If you were to embark upon such idiocy with real money, you would fully deserve losing it. Just give it to charity if you are going to be so reckless and foolish.

Sorry, but I am calling a spade a spade. If it is being rude, so be it. It is amazing how often I read this ridiculousness from people who have never tried it. "It's so easy." "Ever tried it?" "Nope."

Mathematics are not in your favor with the above strategy, and because of this it WILL lose, sooner or later, but from the sound of it, sooner.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #80 (permalink)
 bbstulsa 
Tulsa, OK
 
Posts: 4 since Jan 2013


You are right! Only a idiot would trade that recklessly.

Reply With Quote




Last Updated on January 3, 2016


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts