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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside
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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside

  #291 (permalink)
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Lornz View Post
Exactly! I used to make my living off sports betting (which is legal here), and I still use a lot of the same principles when it comes to trading. In fact, they work much better in this field.


That is awesome! This will be my first year betting discretionary sports betting wise. I think most retail traders are fools for not learning about other gambling games.
My rules are:
My edge is that my team is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I've noticed that I totally have an edge when I would bet against them on the spread. At that point the spread + my knowledge of the matchup gives a nice margin of error.
I'll be running a peon Bodog account, so liquidity/line shopping is not part of the game.
I don't envision more than 2 or 3 bets the whole college season, especially that as a prior I think Nebraska is underrated right now. It is a hugely EV+ thing to do though just for drilling patience into the brain under uncertainty.

To me the best advice a newb trader can get is to do everything you can to expose yourself to making decisions under uncertainty, especially with money on the line.

All my winnings I'll blow off playing heads up 5nl poker. Which to me, any trader that doesn't play heads up poker is a complete fool.

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  #292 (permalink)
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dutchbookmaker View Post
From working at banks and being a monkey boy for "smart money" it seems to me every retail trader overestimates institutional trading.
Trading is a strange mix of right/left brain that the guy who gets a perfect SAT score doesn't have.
To my mind the ultimate trader is some burly, seasoned Chicago pitt guy with decades experience but also has a phd in financial engineering.
Lenny Baum is Simmon's Charlie Munger but you never hear about him. He can model anything and also has a speculator mindset.
IMO the real problem traders have overall, retail or institutional is laziness. Neither want to study hard enough to become Lenny Baum/Simmons or Wykoff/Livermore, let alone both.

People will buy any bullshit book on TA, yet all the advances in trading fall under quant finance for the last 15 years. You can skip college and learn Mathematica, yet try to find shit on mathematica and trading.

There will always be an edge to find in any kind of gambling game for those who are willing to far out bust their ass.
Refer to my sig quote...I quote that line whenever I hear someone say everything has been invented. As if people didn't think the same at that time.

I agree. I'll be the first to admit that my FE skills leave a lot to be desired, which is something I am trying to remedy now... But I am amazed at how far rudimentary probability and statistics can get you...

I've always been fascinated with the works of Ed Thorp, and feel he had a very practical approach to things...



dutchbookmaker View Post
That is awesome! This will be my first year betting discretionary sports betting wise. I think most retail traders are fools for not learning about other gambling games.
My rules are:
My edge is that my team is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I've noticed that I totally have an edge when I would bet against them on the spread. At that point the spread + my knowledge of the matchup gives a nice margin of error.
I'll be running a peon Bodog account, so liquidity/line shopping is not part of the game.
I don't envision more than 2 or 3 bets the whole college season, especially that as a prior I think Nebraska is underrated right now. It is a hugely EV+ thing to do though just for drilling patience into the brain under uncertainty.

To me the best advice a newb trader can get is to do everything you can to expose yourself to making decisions under uncertainty, especially with money on the line.

All my winnings I'll blow off playing heads up 5nl poker. Which to me, any trader that doesn't play heads up poker is a complete fool.

I focused primarily on soccer (The Champions League in particular), and did quite well. After a while I got scared by stories of big winners getting "thrown out" and having their accounts blocked etc, and I wondered if my time would be better spent in more liquid markets. Therefore I turned to finance...

I also did some work on horse betting, especially combinations like exactas and the daily double. There are not many systematic gamblers in Norway it seems, because you could find value quite often. But the liquidity is not something to rejoice over...

You have awaken my primal urges. I suddenly feel the need to get back on the saddle...

Good luck with your betting venture!

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  #293 (permalink)
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TheTrend View Post
Good thread.

I fully agree discretionary day-trading is not for everyone.

I always considered myself as disciplined but when it comes to trading you have to be really, REALLY, strong.

Also I've decided to automate my strategies and I discover a whole new world.

Actuall I find that doing research, programming, back-testing etc ... much more fun than trading in itself.

I don't feel exhausted at the end of the day anymore and the losses don't affect me.

So there's some great discretionay scalpers out there and my hat off to them but everyone has to find its own way


Good luck on your journey. You will be glad you made it. It is a much more relaxing existence when you let the bot execute your strategy.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #294 (permalink)
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Finally got the autotrader to do half a decent job on the entries.

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  #295 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Finally got the autotrader to do half a decent job on the entries.

Very nice monpere.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #296 (permalink)
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liquidcci View Post
But then I decided to build my signals into an auto trade strategy. It was the best time and money I ever spent. It 100% solved my discipline issues. I have not entered a rogue trade outside of my plan for 2 years and am profitable. This may not work for everyone but was only way I could overcome the darkness that lurks in every trader.

haha, that's me exactly. well i didn't have the same problems as you. but it takes disipline to place stops etc etc. and just one bad day can cost big money.
So i'm developing some auto-strategies for that reason as well.

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  #297 (permalink)
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L4G4D3LL1C View Post
haha, that's me exactly. well i didn't have the same problems as you. but it takes disipline to place stops etc etc. and just one bad day can cost big money.
So i'm developing some auto-strategies for that reason as well.


Good for you. You will be glad you went down the AT road. So many benefits.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #298 (permalink)
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Hey liquidcci - just to say I agree totally with your position. I'm a software engineer with phd in signal processing and as my bias gets in the way of trading successfully, I'm moving over to full-auto.

I'd appreciate any advice while doing this ; )

I have at present 3 algos that give good returns on the S&P500. Stock indices I know a bit about. However I'd like to move to Forex. FX has a totally different personality and the strategies I use on stock indices plain don't work on FX.

I'd be more than happy to trade a bit of information / collaborate etc on developing winning algos : )

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  #299 (permalink)
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BTW I should add, earlier this year I closed and cashed out all my trading accounts (still frozen) and put cash in the bank. During this time I've been backtesting / researching algorithms. The very practice of doing this (backtest) has allowed me to see why I was failing before.

Firstly the difference between winning at trading and losing is incredibly fine. Its a knife edge - so much so that if an optimum algorithm changes its parameters only slightly, it loses. How much more so will you as a trader lose if you have a plan and fail to obey it exactly and to the letter? A winning strategy can be turned into a long term loser just by hesitation.

Secondly strategy trading has shown me you actually can't predict the future, and its all just a probabilities game. Unless you know your probability of winning/losing based on historical testing how are you going to hold your nerve when the strategy is taking a drawdown? How are you going to avoid ruin if you don't know your risk of ruin? Or don't keep accurate records? etc...

Finally I am beginning to see now what gives you an edge and starting to produce some consistently profitable strategies. Ok fine they require regular re-optimisation and there's always the danger of curve fitting, but hey its a start. Much better than seat of the pants trading which may work for 1 month, 2 months, even a year but ultimately, it will fail and when it does take your profit and more.

Discpline is key and what is more disciplined than a machine?

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  #300 (permalink)
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I'm reading through the pages.


liquidcci View Post
I know guys personally who made a few million feeling the market but went broke. When you try to feel the market you are betting against the house and the house will eventually take it all back. If you program the right auto system with good probabilities or have the discipline to manually trade a mechanical system you become the house.

YES totally agree.

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