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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside


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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside

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  #201 (permalink)
 supermht 
Naperville IL
 
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sidney7g View Post
Monpere you are totally twisting my words around, yet again. I said to play the chartgame.com till you get to 100k with no indicators or statistics, then use the same tactics on CL in SIMULATION because it is in essence the same thing. Never just jump into trading a system that you barely know. Damn monpere do you even know how to trade?
DO IT ON ANY INSTRUMENT IF YOU SO CHOOSE. IT DOESN'T MATTER. the only reason I said to use the chartgame is because it allows you to speed up time, which makes it somewhat easier to come to the conclusion faster.

AND AGAIN, MONPERE HAVE YOU GOTTEN TO 100K? NO? then shut up. Don't post on my methods until you can back up your statements.

AND AGAIN, I still want proof automated systems work. no one has given me any or directed me to any proof. How do you expect me to even believe any of this. I know what works for me, but how are you going to make me believe something that is theoretically possible but not provable. You guys believe in Statistics, well I want statistics on a successful longterm automated program. Is that too much to ask for?

please, futures.io (formerly BMT) is for learning each other, not for MADNESS!!!

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  #202 (permalink)
sidney7g
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monpere View Post
And, how exactly do you know I have not gotten to 100K? That is quite presumptuous. If you start with more then 100K, getting to 100K has no meaning. Have you given any proof that your system works? What kind of proof do you want? Why would anyone care to give you proof? What is that worth to them? Do you think satisfying your satisfaction, would validate them? Would that make them feel proud? Thank about your request, and ask yourself why would anyone entertain that request. Unless someone gives you their account information for you to login to their account and examine their trade history and account balance, then asking for proof is futile. Any 5 year old can bring up Microsoft paint, type in some numbers, and show you what ever it is you want to see.

In a medium like this, all you can do is present the arguments that you believe in, with the theories and experience that support that belief. That may convince some people, influence others, or just cause them ponder. Others will be outright unmovable, because they are too well entrenched in their own belief. No amount of proof will convince them, and no amount of proof will guarantee that system will work for them.

look go to chartgame.com it starts you out at 10k, you trade data from real stocks.

take a snap shot of your account with automation, the trading log too. Show me your program or part of it.

Look yes anyone can fudge proof with Photoshop, but I'm trusting you. I trusted silver dragon on page 5, and anyone else that wants to be a grown up about this.
I have the capability to trust you guys, why do you think I wouldn't?

Grown ups can prove themselves.

If you guys don't want to post it on the forum, send it to me in a private message. It doesn't matter to me. If you guys want to fudge it up then you have to live with the guilt and shame that you're taking credit for a fabricated system.

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  #203 (permalink)
 Xeno 
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There are plenty of threads on this forum about proofs for automated systems. In summary, you're not going to get proof. If you insist that people with whom you disagree on this are lying, then I imagine they're quite happy to leave it there and move on and discuss other stuff.

Now, purely out of interest, what specifically (and I mean stats) in a trading record would convince you?

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  #204 (permalink)
sidney7g
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Xeno View Post
There are plenty of threads on this forum about proofs for automated systems. In summary, you're not going to get proof. If you insist that people with whom you disagree on this are lying, then I imagine they're quite happy to leave it there and move on and discuss other stuff.

Now, purely out of interest, what specifically (and I mean stats) in a trading record would convince you?

Like just a simple brief report. A description of what the program does. A log of a significant amount of trades. Maybe, a monthly log of net profits. A chart with some trades and some comments on why the computer made the trades. Perhaps the code or parts of the code that make the decisions. Maybe if the person could summarize the code into pseudo code that would work. (stats) would consist of winners to losers ratio, frequency of trades, average amount a trade makes or loses, how it places the stop or limit, monthly net profit, and stuff like this.

I know you guys did a contest, I just want to know the results. If you know of another tread with this type of proof show me please. I'd be glad to hop off this thread.

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  #205 (permalink)
 Xeno 
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Right, let me take each one (and I won't quote them all if that's OK)

Firstly, let's not forget that you don't believe the proof exists, and you will be looking to pick holes in it.

Like just a simple brief report.
- that's tricky - most brokers don't to much of a statistical report. Just a monthly P&L. The sort of report which is convincing is easy to fake (by curve fitting)

A description of what the program does.
- not going to happen, see below

A log of a significant amount of trades.
- not good enough. How many do you need?

Maybe, a monthly log of net profits.
- how many months do you need. Consecutive presumably?

A chart with some trades and some comments on why the computer made the trades.
- not going to happen, see below

Perhaps the code or parts of the code that make the decisions.
- not going to happen, see below

Maybe if the person could summarize the code into pseudo code that would work.
- not going to happen, see below

The ones I've flagged as not going to happen is because no one is going to give you serious clues as to how their winning auto strategy works. Why would they do that? You think they care whether you believe them? What they gave you a really simple strat that was based on parameters calculated overnight by a load of analytics code. It wouldn't impress you would it?

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  #206 (permalink)
sidney7g
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Xeno View Post
Right, let me take each one (and I won't quote them all if that's OK)

Firstly, let's not forget that you don't believe the proof exists, and you will be looking to pick holes in it.

Like just a simple brief report.
- that's tricky - most brokers don't to much of a statistical report. Just a monthly P&L. The sort of report which is convincing is easy to fake (by curve fitting)

A description of what the program does.
- not going to happen, see below

A log of a significant amount of trades.
- not good enough. How many do you need?

Maybe, a monthly log of net profits.
- how many months do you need. Consecutive presumably?

A chart with some trades and some comments on why the computer made the trades.
- not going to happen, see below

Perhaps the code or parts of the code that make the decisions.
- not going to happen, see below

Maybe if the person could summarize the code into pseudo code that would work.
- not going to happen, see below

The ones I've flagged as not going to happen is because no one is going to give you serious clues as to how their winning auto strategy works. Why would they do that? You think they care whether you believe them? What they gave you a really simple strat that was based on parameters calculated overnight by a load of analytics code. It wouldn't impress you would it?

Well I believe proof does exist. I'm fine with something like what silver dragon showed me. Anything. Its at the automated programmers discretion. Why not? it only takes a few minutes to snap shot, upload, and post a few comments. You can blur private info. I'm not here to scrutinize the code. If you don't want to show me the code at least sum it up in brief statements.

If their code is so secret and they can't share it or trust other people who share theirs, Then why even post against me asking for proof. Why not just Not respond, drive your Lamborghini, and laugh at the doubters. Why do people even feel compelled to say I'm wrong, but can't even back it up.

And yes, It would impress me.
If I programmed an automated system that worked, I'd show some proof. It's not like your disclosing your secret recipe to another company where competition will diminish profits. If a programmer did shed clues to me It would probably inspire me and I'd consider them a smart/genuine trader and believer in their methods. It's not like I'm going to reverse engineer their code and take away their money.

Come on now, give me a break.

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  #207 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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sidney7g View Post
Well I believe proof does exist. I'm fine with something like what silver dragon showed me. Anything. Its at the automated programmers discretion. Why not? it only takes a few minutes to snap shot, upload, and post a few comments. You can blur private info. I'm not here to scrutinize the code. If you don't want to show me the code at least sum it up in brief statements.

If their code is so secret and they can't share it or trust other people who share theirs, Then why even post against me asking for proof. Why not just Not respond, drive your Lamborghini, and laugh at the doubters. Why do people even feel compelled to say I'm wrong, but can't even back it up.

If I programmed an automated system that worked, I'd show some proof. It's not like your disclosing your secret recipe to another company where competition will diminish profits. If a programmer did shed clues to me It would probably inspire me and I'd consider them a smart/genuine trader and believer in their methods. It's not like I'm going to reverse engineer their code and take away their money.

Come on now, give me a break.

Why would I share my code earned through blood and sweat with anyone. If I have a profitable strategy I don't want to crowd my trade and make it harder to scale. I doubt to many would be willing to share their bread and butter in a forum. They might throw an old strategy or something up for kicks into the bot wars. But bread and butter no way. I have even had several ask me if I would rent my strategy out and I said sorry but can't do it. Why? because I can make more trading it myself than renting it and putting other people on it would only make my ability to scale harder.

If you are truly interested in mechanical auto trading and not here just to irritate then go earn it, find it, back test it, work at it. No one is going to be willing to do the work for you. In fact I could care less if you auto trade or not. I don't even care if you blow out your account as that can be a great education. I don't post in these forums to prove anything. I just enjoy the debate.

If you feel like by asking for proof and no one is willing to offer you proof that you somehow validate your point that mechanical auto systems don't make money you are gravely wrong.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #208 (permalink)
 Xeno 
UK
 
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Quoting 
Well I believe proof does exist. I'm fine with something like what silver dragon showed me. Anything. Its at the automated programmers discretion.

So you've already seen proof? Or the figures weren't good enough?? How many months/trades convinces you? You still haven't answered that.


Quoting 
If their code is so secret and they can't share it or trust other people who share theirs, Then why even post against me asking for proof. Why not just Not respond, drive your Lamborghini, and laugh at the doubters. Why do people even feel compelled to say I'm wrong, but can't even back it up.

I don't think anyone is asking you for proof. And actually how do you know there are no successful auto traders who have ignored your posts. I know of at least two.


Quoting 
And yes, It would impress me.
If I programmed an automated system that worked, I'd show some proof. It's not like

Sorry, I guess they just don't need the online kudos.

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  #209 (permalink)
sidney7g
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Xeno View Post
So you've already seen proof? Or the figures weren't good enough?? How many months/trades convinces you? You still haven't answered that.

I have not seen proof. 6 months to a year. over 100 trades.



Xeno View Post
I don't think anyone is asking you for proof. And actually how do you know there are no successful auto traders who have ignored your posts. I know of at least two.

well please ask those two to just send a private message to me confirming this.


Xeno View Post
Sorry, I guess they just don't need the online kudos.

I'm don't expect them to want the kudos. I just find it common courtesy to share proof if they are truly successful with it.

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  #210 (permalink)
sidney7g
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liquidcci View Post
Why would I share my code earned through blood and sweat with anyone. If I have a profitable strategy I don't want to crowd my trade and make it harder to scale. I doubt to many would be willing to share their bread and butter in a forum.

Take a snap shot of your trading logs instead of your code. If you can, include a 6 month to a year time frame. This way you won't share your code but can validate that Automation did truly conquer your darkside.

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  #211 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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sidney7g View Post
Take a snap shot of your trading logs instead of your code. If you can include a 6 month to a year time frame. This way you won't share your code but can validate that Automation did truly conquer your darkside.


Code and then you running the code would be the only real proof. Anything else could easily be fabricated. I don't share my trading log and could fabricate them in 5 minutes so this is moot. I think what you may not be understanding is I nor most are not here to prove anything. We don't need to prove anything. What I get out of these boards is some debate and maybe with some of my experiences I can help another trader in some capacity as well as learn from others.

If you feel like by asking for proof and no one is willing to offer you proof that you somehow validate your point that mechanical auto systems don't make money you are gravely wrong.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #212 (permalink)
 rpm123 
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Professional casinos, gamblers, discretionary, mechanical, and auto traders are successful - otherwise theirs would not be a profession.

What do they have in common? Probabilities and execution. They play the odds... Very well.

Do any of these professionals take chances and beat the odds - yes, except the auto traders and the casinos.
Do any take chances and not beat the odds - yes, except the autotraders and the casinos.

Who is best at exploiting the probabilities and repetitively execute and succeed in the long run - guess who.

Do many professionals make the news - yes, the winners who beat the odds.
Do many professionals win and not make the news - yes, those auto traders and casinos.

Are there more winners or more losers in gambling and trading - more winners that exploit probabilities and execution, more losers that don't.

Am I for or against any of these professionals. I'm for the successful methodology. I'm still on my quest. I have an open mind. And I've learned more about my mind and human psychology on my quest.

Thirty some odd years ago Bobby Fischer beat Big Blue at chess. Last year Watson cleaned up at Jeopardy.
Machines, programs, are getting better. Who would win at chess today?

Human psychology is loaded against you in trading. Overcoming it is tough. It sneaks thru even once you 'overcame' it. So you applies rules and systems to thwart human and personal psychology. Using a program applies it flawlessly.

I am an inconsistent discretionary trader with mechanical rules (that I don't flawlessly execute) taking a good look at auto-trading. I'm sure I'll learn something.

But not learning so much from this thread recently. But am reliving my playground days.

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  #213 (permalink)
 Xeno 
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Quoting 
I have not seen proof. 6 months to a year. over 100 trades.

Why would it convince you? The screen shot mentioned is so easy to display backtest instead of live trading.


Quoting 
well please ask those two to just send a private message to me confirming this.

You're joking right? They're not getting involved for a reason.


Quoting 
I just find it common courtesy to share proof if they are truly successful with it.

Funny that. What I find common courtesy is not calling people's honesty into question by insisting they show you proof.

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  #214 (permalink)
sidney7g
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liquidcci View Post
Code and then you running the code would be the only real proof. Anything else could easily be fabricated. I don't share my trading log and could fabricate them in 5 minutes so this is moot. I think what you may not understanding is I nor most are not here to prove anything.

If you feel like by asking for proof and no one is willing to offer you proof that you somehow validate your point that mechanical auto systems don't make money you are gravely wrong.

No I wouldn't need to run the code. Like I said I'm not hard to convince. Look I can't stop you from fabricating your logs but at least share them. If you have nothing to prove stop replying to me.

This isn't validating mechanical trading, this is simply validating automated trading ONLY.

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  #215 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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sidney7g View Post
I have not seen proof. 6 months to a year. over 100 trades.

well please ask those two to just send a private message to me confirming this.

I'm don't expect them to want the kudos. I just find it common courtesy to share proof if they are truly successful with it.

Check out the following thread, where the original author spent days with the same argument about proof:



Then he found some trading guru with plenty of proof, paid him a ton of money, then took 9 successful trades, and started the following thread telling everyone he found the holy grail:



Then 3 days later, he's telling everyone, he spoke to soon, and he is losing money again. What did that proof accomplish for him? It's a futile and worthless argument.

Now you want to see people's pseudo code? I suspect you probably tried automated algorighms and failed, and now think that if you can get a peek at someone's successful trading method you can copy it and generate a successful automated system yourself. Not going to happen, unless you hack into someone's machine.

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  #216 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
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sidney7g View Post
No I wouldn't need to run the code. Like I said I'm not hard to convince. Look I can't stop you from fabricating your logs but at least share them. If you have nothing to prove stop replying to me.

This isn't validating mechanical trading, this is simply validating automated trading ONLY.

I think I will stop replying to you as you suggest. This has become counter productive and quite childish. It is clear to me you don't have an understanding of mechanical trading and the automation of it and have no desire to understand. Really automation is not the heart of the issue it is mechanical vs discretionary. Automation only follows the rules of a mechanical system. But I can only converse on an adult level with someone who understands these concepts. I think your best teacher will be a few account blow outs. Sometimes the market is the best teacher of all.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #217 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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liquidcci View Post
I think I will stop replying to you as you suggest. This has become counter productive and quite childish. It is clear to me you don't have an understanding of mechanical trading and the automation of it and have no desire to understand. Really automation is not the heart of the issue it is mechanical vs discretionary. Automation only follows the rules of a mechanical system. But I can only converse on an adult level with someone who understands these concepts.

Ditto

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  #218 (permalink)
sidney7g
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monpere View Post
I suspect you have tried automation and failed, now are looking for ideas for a profitable system. No one is going to give you their profitable system. Go and create one your self.

No, I have not tried automation, but I am interested in possibly coding my mechanical system. Before I am willing to dive into it, I want to know If it's worth the trouble. My mechanical system is profitable on its own.

From this post -
https://futures.io/wiki/trading-wiki/Backtesting?do=edit

huge swings in capitol. Only 45k made in 2 years off 100k.

liquidcci - how long did it take you to take 5k to 100k?

Monpere - I will check out your links.

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  #219 (permalink)
sidney7g
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liquidcci View Post
I think I will stop replying to you as you suggest. This has become counter productive and quite childish. It is clear to me you don't have an understanding of mechanical trading and the automation of it and have no desire to understand. Really automation is not the heart of the issue it is mechanical vs discretionary. Automation only follows the rules of a mechanical system. But I can only converse on an adult level with someone who understands these concepts. I think your best teacher will be a few account blow outs. Sometimes the market is the best teacher of all.

Well Its not childish to prove yourself. I have the desire to learn automation. Automation may not be the heart of the issue, But you have yet to agree that gambling and discretionary trading are not the same.

Have you tried the chartgame.com yet?
Has anyone gotten to 20k?

Still no one wants to shed light on any substantial proof of automation. I can understand Advanced concepts in programming. Tell me some that you use.

My account will never be blown because I do not gamble.

And if you believe the market is the best teacher trade real data on the chartgame.com and post a log

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  #220 (permalink)
sidney7g
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If you guys can talk the talk, walk the walk. No excuses.

At least trade the chartgame.com from 10k to 20k with no indicators to understand where I am coming from with discretion not being gambling.

I am sorry for being aggressive in this discussion, I just want to get to the bottom of this. Silver dragon modestly helped me out the most just posting that simple picture. I want to be a true believer, I just need evidence.

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  #221 (permalink)
 rpm123 
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sidney7g View Post
Well Its not childish to prove yourself. I have the desire to learn automation. Automation may not be the heart of the issue, But you have yet to agree that gambling and discretionary trading are not the same.

Have you tried the chartgame.com yet?
Has anyone gotten to 20k?

Still no one wants to shed light on any substantial proof of automation. I can understand Advanced concepts in programming. Tell me some that you use.

My account will never be blown because I do not gamble.

And if you believe the market is the best teacher trade real data on the chartgame.com and post a log

Sir, you are an automated machine. Flawlessly repetitive. Don't change a thing.
It's working for you in your trading, not so much in your discussions.

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  #222 (permalink)
sidney7g
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rpm123 View Post
Sir, you are an automated machine. Flawlessly repetitive. Don't change a thing.
It's working for you in your trading, not so much in your discussions.

Hmm, No. It looks like everyone here is repetitive In not being able to do a simple favor for me. Trade that game to prove discretionary is not gambling or post their log of their long term automation working.

I don't ask or require complicated things. I just feel like everyone is hiding in excuses and denial.

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  #223 (permalink)
 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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Do you guys trade your systems unattended? If so, how do you handle unforseen errors? My strategy enters orders by calling an ATM. I had a strange occurrence once trading the CL, where my entry order got filled, but CL did one of its wild spontaneous moves, and by the time by associated stop from the ATM got sent to the broker the market had moved enough that my stop order fell on the wrong side of the market, so my broker rejected the order, and since the target order was an OCO with the stop, it got canceled. The end result is I ended up with a trade in the market with no stop and no target. I was at the machine when it happened so I killed the trade manually, but if I was not there it could have been bad. How do you guys handle that?

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 Xeno 
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monpere View Post
Do you guys trade your systems unattended? If so, how do you handle unforseen errors? My strategy enters orders by calling an ATM. I had a strange occurrence once trading the CL, where my entry order got filled, but CL did one of its wild spontaneous moves, and by the time by associated stop from the ATM got sent to the broker the market had moved enough that my stop order fell on the wrong side of the market, so my broker rejected the order, and since the target order was an OCO with the stop, it got canceled. The end result is I ended up with a trade in the market with not stop and to target. I was at the machine when it happened so I killed the trade manually, but if I was not there it could have been bad. How dioyou guys handle that?

I have a monitor strategy. If the monitor dies, I get notified (text/email) Each of my strategies notifies me when it makes a trade. The monitor notifies me every half hour, while in a position, of open positions, P&L and any working orders (so I would spot a missing stop) Did Ninja not detect your situation as some sort of overfill?

It's not perfect, but it gives me fair bit more confidence.

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sidney7g
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monpere View Post
Do you guys trade your systems unattended? If so, how do you handle unforseen errors? My strategy enters orders by calling an ATM. I had a strange occurrence once trading the CL, where my entry order got filled, but CL did one of its wild spontaneous moves, and by the time by associated stop from the ATM got sent to the broker the market had moved enough that my stop order fell on the wrong side of the market, so my broker rejected the order, and since the target order was an OCO with the stop, it got canceled. The end result is I ended up with a trade in the market with not stop and to target. I was at the machine when it happened so I killed the trade manually, but if I was not there it could have been bad. How dioyou guys handle that?

See stuff like this makes me fear automation

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 BCNTrader 
Barcelona, Spain
 
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sidney7g View Post
If you guys can talk the talk, walk the walk. No excuses.

At least trade the chartgame.com from 10k to 20k with no indicators to understand where I am coming from with discretion not being gambling.

I am sorry for being aggressive in this discussion, I just want to get to the bottom of this. Silver dragon modestly helped me out the most just posting that simple picture. I want to be a true believer, I just need evidence.


From 10k to 55k with no indicators:

* But the true is, I don't need to plot SMA/EMA on my charts to trade them, I can use my imagination.

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sidney7g
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Thank you, Nice song ;p

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 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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Xeno View Post
I have a monitor strategy. If the monitor dies, I get notified (text/email) Each of my strategies notifies me when it makes a trade. The monitor notifies me every half hour, while in a position, of open positions, P&L and any working orders (so I would spot a missing stop) Did Ninja not detect your situation as some sort of overfill?

It's not perfect, but it gives me fair bit more confidence.

I don't remember getting an error in NT. I think that may be because my strategy uses an ATM, and the ATM does not return any errors, it just showed the stop and target order in an 'Orange' color, I guess because it never got confirmation back from the broker. I have to think about some code to prevent that in the future.

So you are saying that your monitoring strategy is a totally separate strategy that picks up active orders and emails them, so in this situation the email would show an entry order, but no stop or target?

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 Xeno 
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monpere View Post
I don't remember getting an error in NT. I think that may be because my strategy uses an ATM, and the ATM does not return any errors, it just showed the stop and target order in an 'Orange' color, I guess because it never got confirmation back from the broker. I have to think about some code to prevent that in the future.

So you are saying that your monitoring strategy is a totally separate strategy that picks up active orders and emails them, so in this situation the email would show an entry order, but no stop or target?

Yes, although some stuff is notified from the strat itself and some from the monitor. I think a working order actually comes from the strat itself. I don't know if you can get the working orders in a monitor strat, but I know for sure you can get the positions and account equity.

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 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
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How about doing both?

Can I change my trading experience to "Master" now?

P.S. I will now be offering mentorships... Please change my status to "vendor", Big Mike!

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sidney7g
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Lornz your statistics are straight ballin'. Is that an automated system? How much did you start with and what instrument do you trade?

However, Sorry your not a master until you break 1m in chartgame.com. ;p

But, damn. You hit nail on the head. Nice work.

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 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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monpere View Post
Do you guys trade your systems unattended? If so, how do you handle unforseen errors? My strategy enters orders by calling an ATM. I had a strange occurrence once trading the CL, where my entry order got filled, but CL did one of its wild spontaneous moves, and by the time by associated stop from the ATM got sent to the broker the market had moved enough that my stop order fell on the wrong side of the market, so my broker rejected the order, and since the target order was an OCO with the stop, it got canceled. The end result is I ended up with a trade in the market with no stop and no target. I was at the machine when it happened so I killed the trade manually, but if I was not there it could have been bad. How do you guys handle that?


I will leave unattended but make sure I l always have quick access. I have it setup to email me and text me when a trade is entered or exited. I keep a laptop with me so I can access my server anywhere, anytime. I have a 3g/4g data connection so as long as I am in a city I can even access my server in the car if need be. Whenever I get email I am in a trade I access my server and keep an eye on things. I guess you could say I leave it semi unattended.

I believe I know what you are describing. In NT the scenario you describe happens above when market has moved on the other side of your stop when order is placed. When this happens it will enter trade and then shutdown strategy leaving an orphan order because as you said stop got canceled and target is OCO. Way to overcome that is to make sure "cancel entry orders when strategy is disable" under options---strategies tab then ninjascript tab make sure that box is checked. What this will do is when that trade triggers and it puts order in will kill the strategy and the entry order before order ever hits the market. So you will be flat. Way to test if that is working is in sim put your stop one tick off your entry and run it until it happens. You know your settings are correct if your strategy gets killed but no entry was made. I think there may also be a setting somewhere in NT although I can't seem to find it right now where you tell it to disable a strategy on an error. You essentially want it to disable and cancel your entry orders.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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chippy
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I trade mostly automated, but my results are not amazing. They are just decent lol. But as long as I am making more money than if I were working at a 9-5 job I am happy. The only bad thing is when there is data issues or something like that. So automated for me doesn't mean I can leave the system during the day.

For me automated is nice, but I know a few others who hate it.

cool site by the way with that forward testing I couldn't get anywhere near 100% gains though haha

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sidney7g
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chippy View Post
I trade mostly automated, but my results are not amazing. They are just decent lol. But as long as I am making more money than if I were working at a 9-5 job I am happy. The only bad thing is when there is data issues or something like that. So automated for me doesn't mean I can leave the system during the day.

For me automated is nice, but I know a few others who hate it.

cool site by the way with that forward testing I couldn't get anywhere near 100% gains though haha

I appreciate your honesty and testimony.

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 BCNTrader 
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Lornz View Post
How about doing both?

Can I change my trading experience to "Master" now?

P.S. I will now be offering mentorships... Please change my status to "vendor", Big Mike!

Are these NT statistics real-time or backtest? If backtest, do you use at least 1 tick slippage on it? Thanks

P.S. I did 4m in chartgame but I can't access to that "game" because I did it in another PC/place.

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  #236 (permalink)
 rpm123 
Green Bay WI
 
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monpere View Post
Do you guys trade your systems unattended? How do you guys handle that?

This is a great question. Can more autotraders weigh in please? And would you say that if you monitor, you would always let the autotrader enter the position, because it qualified it, but you might be more apt to manage it while in the trade, and take it off early if not performing well? Or is that in the strategy too? thanks

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sidney7g
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BCNTrader View Post
Are these NT statistics real-time or backtest? If backtest, do you use at least 1 tick slippage on it? Thanks

P.S. I did 4m in chartgame but I can't access to that "game" because I did it in another PC/place.

Nice, I mean usually if you can get to 1 million you can go to one trillion. It's just 1 million proves that you have more continuity to your methods than lets say 20k.

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 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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rpm123 View Post
This is a great question. Can more autotraders weigh in please? And would you say that if you monitor, you would always let the autotrader enter the position, because it qualified it, but you might be more apt to manage it while in the trade, and take it off early if not performing well? Or is that in the strategy too? thanks

I think if you sit and watch the autotrader, you run the danger to want to interfere in the automated trades. All the psychological issues you would face as a discretionary trader would be in effect again. I am semi automated, meaning that my trades are identified by the system, but I enter them manually, but everything else is automated. I have to enter manually because I have not been able to get my code to identify my entries with 100% accuracy, so I have to be there to filter out the bonehead signals. I think if you don't run the autotrader unattended, your presence should only be used to take care of unforseen errors or events, that you did not program for.

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 Xeno 
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rpm123 View Post
This is a great question. Can more autotraders weigh in please? And would you say that if you monitor, you would always let the autotrader enter the position, because it qualified it, but you might be more apt to manage it while in the trade, and take it off early if not performing well? Or is that in the strategy too? thanks

That is always in the strategy too. If you manually intervene, then your automated backtesting is worthless for telling you what might happen in real life.

The only time to manually intervene is if you spot your strategy doing something it wasn't supposed to do, or failing to handle a situation you hadn't programmed it for. After that it needs to be stopped and tweaked/fixed.

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 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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rpm123 View Post
This is a great question. Can more autotraders weigh in please? And would you say that if you monitor, you would always let the autotrader enter the position, because it qualified it, but you might be more apt to manage it while in the trade, and take it off early if not performing well? Or is that in the strategy too? thanks

rpm123 I won't manage while in a trade but will keep an eye on it in case there was some type of technical problem with computers. Problem is if you pull it off early and are trading probabilities that will change your probabilities and the thought of this keeps me honest. Even if my intervention lead to a better outcome it would invalidate my stats if did to often which means I would be trading blind. I have also found having the computer manage gives me enough of a layer in between me and the trade to not be tempted to bother it even if I am watching it. I have to monitor it at some level in case the computer goes haywire although I would like not to monitor at all.

Good question

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 rpm123 
Green Bay WI
 
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Another question for the autotraders out there.

What do you think of the StrategyRunner type solutions beyond the fact we are all diy'ers here? Are there gems among the rocks?

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 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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Xeno View Post
I have a monitor strategy. If the monitor dies, I get notified (text/email) Each of my strategies notifies me when it makes a trade. The monitor notifies me every half hour, while in a position, of open positions, P&L and any working orders (so I would spot a missing stop) Did Ninja not detect your situation as some sort of overfill?

It's not perfect, but it gives me fair bit more confidence.


I like the idea of having the strategy poll itself every half hour and let you know its status. I am going to implement something on that order.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 RM99 
Austin, TX
 
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Lornz View Post
How about doing both?

Can I change my trading experience to "Master" now?

P.S. I will now be offering mentorships... Please change my status to "vendor", Big Mike!

Lornz, looking good. Couple of ???'s though.

1) What is the trading hours? Is this RTH or round the clock?
2) What is your calculated slippage per round trip?

I find that strategies that net around $30-$40/trade are profitable on a few contracts but quickly "saturate" when adding positionsize (due to the slippage).

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 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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rpm123 View Post
Another question for the autotraders out there.

What do you think of the StrategyRunner type solutions beyond the fact we are all diy'ers here? Are there gems among the rocks?

rpm123 I have never used them so I don't have an opinion.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 Lornz 
Oslo, Norway
 
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sidney7g View Post
Lornz your statistics are straight ballin'. Is that an automated system? How much did you start with and what instrument do you trade?

However, Sorry your not a master until you break 1m in chartgame.com. ;p

But, damn. You hit nail on the head. Nice work.


BCNTrader View Post
Are these NT statistics real-time or backtest? If backtest, do you use at least 1 tick slippage on it? Thanks

P.S. I did 4m in chartgame but I can't access to that "game" because I did it in another PC/place.


RM99 View Post
Lornz, looking good. Couple of ???'s though.

1) What is the trading hours? Is this RTH or round the clock?
2) What is your calculated slippage per round trip?

I find that strategies that net around $30-$40/trade are profitable on a few contracts but quickly "saturate" when adding positionsize (due to the slippage).

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: a truly successful trader will not divulge his approach. The results I posted are a backtest. The result represents 1 contract trading the CL (RTH) with limit orders.

It was my first automated system, but I retired it quickly. The approach is still valid, but now I use a discretionary filter also. It has greatly reduced the number of trades, while keeping the R/R fairly intact. It just makes more sense...

I kind of regret posting it. I was trying to overcome my paranoia, but I see now that I would rather keep it.

The whole point of the post was to show the benefits of dynamic targets and letting winners run.... Win% is not everything... I was never smart enough to be able to program the dynamic entries though, so I guess I will continue to spend my days in front of the computer...

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 RM99 
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As long as we're on the subject of ATS risk management strategies.....

1) You can now access any windows XP or later computer using XP or Win7 from any computer. This also includes windows7 phones. There's yet to be a 4G win7 phone, but I'm anticipating it out by Christmas. This virtually eliminates the need for leaving your system "unattended."

2) Depending on your broker/trading platform, different strategies will add or reduce 2nd and 3rd order risk. On TS servers, running IOG strategies usually violates their "15 second" rule with respect to order placement. So you either have to use static profit/loss values, OR run the risk that if it violates the 15 second rule, the order will not be maintained on the trade server.

3) Use of limit orders obviously improves price certainty (and reduces slippage). But it comes at a cost with ATS. Limit strategies GREATLY increase the complexity of strategy execution. Partial orders, orders jumped during high velocity surges, etc....can all present challenges.

In essence, I would feel better about leaving a strategy "unattended" if it was running on a dedicated server, with market orders and natively maintained orders on the tradeserver. Obviously that severely limits your strategy development options. Once you start getting more complex than that, the risk increases.....in the event of a positive connection failure, anything but the most simple strategies pose a SERIOUS threat.

When you combine that with the concept that Liquid posted in the other thread about geometric increases in positionsize, the risk becomes even greater.

In the end...ATS is not meant to be "auto pilot." It's meant to be more "cruise control." where you're awake, and monitoring to ensure it doesn't drive you off the road.

Noteworthy is if any of you have ever studied complex risk management concepts....ponder this.

Even the most robust dedicated servers will not "guarantee" more than 99.99% uptime.

That's a 1:10,000 failure rate.

Over the course of 6 months, there are 126 trading days (roughly) at 23.25 hours (electronic) for instruments like CL. That's roughly 10.5M seconds of live trading. at a 1:10k failure rate, that's over 1000 seconds of permitted downtime. Ask yourself what 17 minutes of downtime could do on an instrument like CL. Combine that with the fact that you're data feed has a historical failure rate, your platform server has a historical failure rates, etc......

In essence, unless you're running the most BASIC strategy, running unattended isn't very wise.

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 Xeno 
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RM99 View Post

Over the course of 6 months, there are 126 trading days (roughly) at 23.25 hours (electronic) for instruments like CL. That's roughly 10.5M seconds of live trading. at a 1:10k failure rate, that's over 1000 seconds of permitted downtime. Ask yourself what 17 minutes of downtime could do on an instrument like CL. Combine that with the fact that you're data feed has a historical failure rate, your platform server has a historical failure rates, etc......

In essence, unless you're running the most BASIC strategy, running unattended isn't very wise.

I don't mean to belittle your point, which is a very good one, but I'd like to go into it in a bit more detail. I am someone who does leave live strats unattended, at least still in touch with me by text/email. I guess I would never be away from them for more than about 4-8 hours.

What you're describing is the worst case, and of course we should always consider the worst case. So, in your example (and leaving aside data feed, platform etc for now), there are some extra things that need to happen.

The downtime needs to be contiguous - i.e. all 17 mins at once. Something bad needs to happen to your position in those 17 mins. If you have a stop on at the exchange, which I always do for this very reason, you'd have to be very unlucky for something bad to happen.

Most of my strats would do very little during a position. Just trail the stop and look for an exit signal. It's not so bad if that doesn't happen for a short while.

My strats typically detect lost connections and act accordingly.

I agree that if your trading is very short term you might get some problems, but you still need a stop and your trades are likely to be lower total risk anyway.

You also mention that unattended isn't wise unless strat is very basic. Not sure I completely agree. Most complex strats I run have their complexity in spotting a setup, and managing a stop. As I said earlier, it's not a huge risk for me if they can't manage a position for 17 mins.

In summary, it's about knowing the worst case, the typical case and deciding whether you accept the risk.

I'll leave you with this. Let's say I have one of these events every six months, and it's a bad one that loses me 200 points. For the rest of those six months, my strats trade while I'm asleep or not working, from UK 11pm to 7am, and 6pm to 10pm. That's a lot of hours over six months, and my strats wouldn't be trading then if I couldn't accept the unattended risk. So, they need to make more than 150 points in all those hours to make the unattended risk worthwhile. Well, if they don't do that easily they're not worth running unattended. Actually the same argument would apply if you spent each afternoon at the beach. You're paying a risk cost to be there.

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 RM99 
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Xeno View Post
I don't mean to belittle your point, which is a very good one, but I'd like to go into it in a bit more detail. I am someone who does leave live strats unattended, at least still in touch with me by text/email. I guess I would never be away from them for more than about 4-8 hours.

What you're describing is the worst case, and of course we should always consider the worst case. So, in your example (and leaving aside data feed, platform etc for now), there are some extra things that need to happen.

The downtime needs to be contiguous - i.e. all 17 mins at once. Something bad needs to happen to your position in those 17 mins. If you have a stop on at the exchange, which I always do for this very reason, you'd have to be very unlucky for something bad to happen.

Most of my strats would do very little during a position. Just trail the stop and look for an exit signal. It's not so bad if that doesn't happen for a short while.

My strats typically detect lost connections and act accordingly.

I agree that if your trading is very short term you might get some problems, but you still need a stop and your trades are likely to be lower total risk anyway.

You also mention that unattended isn't wise unless strat is very basic. Not sure I completely agree. Most complex strats I run have their complexity in spotting a setup, and managing a stop. As I said earlier, it's not a huge risk for me if they can't manage a position for 17 mins.

In summary, it's about knowing the worst case, the typical case and deciding whether you accept the risk.

I'll leave you with this. Let's say I have one of these events every six months, and it's a bad one that loses me 200 points. For the rest of those six months, my strats trade while I'm asleep or not working, from UK 11pm to 7am, and 6pm to 10pm. That's a lot of hours over six months, and my strats wouldn't be trading then if I couldn't accept the unattended risk. So, they need to make more than 150 points in all those hours to make the unattended risk worthwhile. Well, if they don't do that easily they're not worth running unattended. Actually the same argument would apply if you spent each afternoon at the beach. You're paying a risk cost to be there.

Risk tolerance is a personal choice. One woman might be a beauty queen to me and might look like the lunch lady to you.

I already said, TS does not maintain stops that are updated more than 15 seconds apart. That means, if you're using anything not static (like a trailing stop, etc) then you run the risk of having an open position with no stop in the event of a connection failure.

Secondly, you don't need 17 minutes of downtime to see a catastrophic move. Depending on your instrument, this risk can vary.

I've PERSONALLY observed CL move 50 ticks in 5 seconds. I've personally watched it move 200 ticks in one direction in 60 seconds and then watch it reverse back the other direction 150 ticks in the next 60 seconds.

I don't know what you're trading setups involve, but mine don't involve 150 tick stops.

As I said, if you're running a different tradeserver/broker, different data feed, then these risks could vary greatly.

You don't have to lose internet access in order to lose connection to the tradeserver (or the data stream). So when you combine those things....and you're trading on a fairly leveraged instrument (like CL or GC), then these risks are substantial.

In the Army, when we did risk analysis, you use a 2 dimensional relationship between frequency (likelihood, expectancy, etc) and outcome.

I have a background in nuclear engineering, and the risk analysis is similar.

Even if something is VERY unlikely to happen, but if it does, it's catastrophic, it's generally considered "high risk." If a nuclear power plant has risk management controls that predict a catastrophic incident every 1000 years of operation, you'd say that the risk is small yes? But if/when it happens (a confluence of failures) the result is completely unacceptible....then the risk still gets labeled "high."

If you're conducting an exercise (like jumping out of an aircraft with a parachute) and you know that the total incident rate is very small (1:10,000) but when there IS an incident, it's generally considered loss of life, limb, eyesight, aircraft, etc, then it's still an elevated risk.

Now, if I did indeed have stops maintained on the tradeserver, then the risk decreases dramatically, as the incident rate is extremely low/unlikely and the outcome/effect is minimal......

I would encourage everyone to verify and reverify that their broker/tradeserver actually maintains stop orders and exits in the event of a failure.

I guess my background makes me plan to the extreme and a bit paranoid. I have a dedicated server, I have 2 computers up and running (with internet access). In the event I lose my cable connection, I have an aircard backup available. I have my account number and the tradedesk number written on the whiteboard above my desk (to reduce time accessing the tradedesk). I have all that information on speeddial on both my cell phone and landline and I have my account information available on my cell phone as well.

The final phase of risk management is mitigation....i.e. what steps have you taken in order to either reduce the likelihood of an incident or reduce/minimize it's effects.

For me, running anything other than static stop orders presents a significant risk. But I cannot be tied down to simple bracket orders. OR, I simply have to ensure that I minimize the "unattended" time.

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 Xeno 
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RM99 View Post

I already said, TS does not maintain stops that are updated more than 15 seconds apart. That means, if you're using anything not static (like a trailing stop, etc) then you run the risk of having an open position with no stop in the event of a connection failure.

Secondly, you don't need 17 minutes of downtime to see a catastrophic move. Depending on your instrument, this risk can vary.

I've PERSONALLY observed CL move 50 ticks in 5 seconds. I've personally watched it move 200 ticks in one direction in 60 seconds and then watch it reverse back the other direction 150 ticks in the next 60 seconds.

Ah, my broker keeps stops at the exchange until cancelled. I agree, risk is too high otherwise. I don't trade CL automated because of the volatility you describe.

Yes, risk is a personal choice, but I still think it's an important point to balance against the potential for profit while unattended. If I was trading CL automated, I'd expect to be making a lot of ticks in normal times to cover the unattended risk. Even at a few hundred points lost. You see, this is not a simple case of mitigating risk by not trading unattended, but balancing the risk/reward of trading unattended. I simply couldn't trade during my night, so if my strats do and I make 300 points a month from it for each 500 point catastrophe every six months then it's really not a big deal riskwise.

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 RM99 
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Xeno View Post
Ah, my broker keeps stops at the exchange until cancelled. I agree, risk is too high otherwise. I don't trade CL automated because of the volatility you describe.

Yes, risk is a personal choice, but I still think it's an important point to balance against the potential for profit while unattended. If I was trading CL automated, I'd expect to be making a lot of ticks in normal times to cover the unattended risk. Even at a few hundred points lost. You see, this is not a simple case of mitigating risk by not trading unattended, but balancing the risk/reward of trading unattended. I simply couldn't trade during my night, so if my strats do and I make 300 points a month from it for each 500 point catastrophe every six months then it's really not a big deal riskwise.

Agreed. Different instruments present challenges and aspects that shape viable strategies.

CL for instance....is usually MUCH more tame during off hours. I find that the optimal time for discretionary trading (with a smallish account) happens to be during the OpenEurope to OpenAmerican period. There's enough volume to move it, but it's not the wild west that it becomes during RTH.

Having said that, I gave up on trading off hours....the slippage is way too unpredictable. You can see several ticks of slippage on market orders and as I said earlier, I've tried automating with limit orders.....it's difficult with anything more than a single share/contract. Partial orders become rather difficult to address.

So when you overlay those aspects....most CL traders trade from about 8 a.m. EST to about 2-3p.m EST. Which basically lends itself to "attended" trading. Trading off hours is really a viable solution if you're only trading 1 or 2 contracts OR you're going after larger moves. Chasing 10 ticks with 2 contracts off hours you might see most or all of your move soaked up in slippage. That, and even though it "wonders" aimlessly sometimes.....it also presents a set of risks in terms of sudden volume spikes....(essentially, the trend during off hours even long term, isn't always reliable....you get professionals bleeding off position and taking profits, amateurs dabbling, etc....and then all the sudden, someone comes in with a hammer and ruins your day with a large move).

I really wish TradeStation would maintain stop orders....the more and more I go down this road, I regret not going with a different language/platform, like Ninja. It would be a little more difficult, but the capabilities seem much greater.

as it were, If I'm going to babysit my strategy all the time, then I limit my trading hours to when that's feasible....which is day job hours.

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 Xeno 
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RM99 View Post

Having said that, I gave up on trading off hours....the slippage is way too unpredictable. You can see several ticks of slippage on market orders and as I said earlier, I've tried automating with limit orders.....it's difficult with anything more than a single share/contract. Partial orders become rather difficult to address.

Agreed. I generally use limit orders for that reason. Ninja has an unmanaged orders mode (which simply means Ninja does less behind the scenes and you can program all the raw orders yourself.) It's not as bad as it sounds, but it meant that I can handle partial fills and still maintain stops etc. It was a bit of work, but it's all done now and in a separate library. So, I'm happy relying on limit during the night (and for a bit of added safety, I usually check the liquidity ,spread and reduce the contracts if necessary)

This means I often wake up with a position in something like AUD, JPY, EUR, or the bund. It also means I get possibly 15-22 hours in a position for what is effectively still a day trade. This makes it more viable to trend day trade on a 30, 60 or 120 min bar, for example, which reduces noise/volatility risk.

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 monpere 
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Xeno View Post
I don't mean to belittle your point, which is a very good one, but I'd like to go into it in a bit more detail. I am someone who does leave live strats unattended, at least still in touch with me by text/email. I guess I would never be away from them for more than about 4-8 hours.

What you're describing is the worst case, and of course we should always consider the worst case. So, in your example (and leaving aside data feed, platform etc for now), there are some extra things that need to happen.

The downtime needs to be contiguous - i.e. all 17 mins at once. Something bad needs to happen to your position in those 17 mins. If you have a stop on at the exchange, which I always do for this very reason, you'd have to be very unlucky for something bad to happen.

Most of my strats would do very little during a position. Just trail the stop and look for an exit signal. It's not so bad if that doesn't happen for a short while.

My strats typically detect lost connections and act accordingly.

I agree that if your trading is very short term you might get some problems, but you still need a stop and your trades are likely to be lower total risk anyway.

You also mention that unattended isn't wise unless strat is very basic. Not sure I completely agree. Most complex strats I run have their complexity in spotting a setup, and managing a stop. As I said earlier, it's not a huge risk for me if they can't manage a position for 17 mins.

In summary, it's about knowing the worst case, the typical case and deciding whether you accept the risk.

I'll leave you with this. Let's say I have one of these events every six months, and it's a bad one that loses me 200 points. For the rest of those six months, my strats trade while I'm asleep or not working, from UK 11pm to 7am, and 6pm to 10pm. That's a lot of hours over six months, and my strats wouldn't be trading then if I couldn't accept the unattended risk. So, they need to make more than 150 points in all those hours to make the unattended risk worthwhile. Well, if they don't do that easily they're not worth running unattended. Actually the same argument would apply if you spent each afternoon at the beach. You're paying a risk cost to be there.

I trade with Interactive Brokers, and they keep stop/target orders on their servers or at the exchange, but very few brokers do that. For everyone else, your stop/target will be managed by your software on your pc. So, a power outage, internet disconnection, your pc running slow, freezing, crashing, etc., all of these leave your vulnerable. Even if you have code that detects lost connections, during that time, there's nothing your strategy can do other then notify you, if the internet connection was not the culprit.

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 Xeno 
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This is a very useful list, from Ninja, about where orders reside

Where do your orders reside? - NinjaTrader Support Forum

It appears from that list that with Ninja at least, most working orders are at the exchange.

I guess I've been spoilt having stops always on the exchange - I really wouldn't like them anywhere else for the reasons recently mentioned.

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 monpere 
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Xeno View Post
This is a very useful list, from Ninja, about where orders reside

Where do your orders reside? - NinjaTrader Support Forum

It appears from that list that with Ninja at least, most working orders are at the exchange.

I guess I've been spoilt having stops always on the exchange - I really wouldn't like them anywhere else for the reasons recently mentioned.

For me the important phrase of the majority of the entries is: "OCO (One Cancels Other) functionality is simulated on your local PC", this is where you are going to have problems if you loose connection to your pc. Only Interactive Brokers, and TD Ameritrade say: "OCO (One Cancels Other) functionality is natively supported on their servers." With IB, the moment my stop/target bracket order is sent, and I get no errors back, I can leave the trade unattended, the worst that can happen is that my stop loss is hit, with no other unintentional behaviors, whether my local pc is on or not.

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 Xeno 
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monpere View Post
For me the important phrase of the majority of the entries is: "OCO (One Cancels Other) functionality is simulated on your local PC", this is where you are going to have problems if you loose connection to your pc. Only Interactive Brokers, and TD Ameritrade say: "OCO (One Cancels Other) functionality is natively supported on their servers." With IB, the moment my stop/target bracket order is sent, and I get no errors back, I can leave the trade unattended, the worst that can happen is that my stop loss is hit, with no other unintentional behaviors, whether my local pc is on or not.

Well, this is why I think you have to have a particular type of development philosophy when automated trading. You need to work with your software and broker and understand and work around all the things that can go wrong. For example, I don't use OCO very much, since running Ninja in unmanaged mode it's not to difficult to check orders statuses and act accordingly. But when I do, for things like bracketing, I don't put on the stop until I receive conf that the OCO bracket is cancelled. If the connection goes down and OCO doesn't work, I know that the bracket will act as a decent stop and the stop doesn't go on. That's what I mean by working with what you've got. It's not perfect, but it means you're happy you've covered as much as you can, and you're not totally relying on third party software to sort things out.

I think there is a fairly reasonable fear of what happens with your positions when your connection goes down. Since my strats have been designed with this in mind, and I always get notified about it, and can call my broker and check positions and tell them what to leave or close, I don't let this constantly worry me.

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 Lornz 
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What I would like to know is why someone would want to use NT at all, much less for automated trading?

Aside from being underfunded, I guess? (I am not trying to be offensive)

Unless the program specifically has it in for me and my experience deviates from the norm, I would argue that it's far too unstable to use for any serious trading. Especially automated!

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 RM99 
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Lornz View Post
What I would like to know is why someone would want to use NT at all, much less for automated trading?

Aside from being underfunded, I guess? (I am not trying to be offensive)

Unless the program specifically has it in for me and my experience deviates from the norm, I would argue that it's far too unstable to use for any serious trading. Especially automated!

That's the side I haven't seen. All I see is all the functionality I lose with TradeStation (as compared to the Ninja guys) and it leaves me envious. I have skimmed enough threads to get the sense that Ninja has it's drawbacks in reliability though.

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 Xeno 
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Lornz View Post
What I would like to know is why someone would want to use NT at all, much less for automated trading?

Aside from being underfunded, I guess? (I am not trying to be offensive)

Unless the program specifically has it in for me and my experience deviates from the norm, I would argue that it's far too unstable to use for any serious trading. Especially automated!

I think it might be your experience/setup, to an extent. I, and I know one or two others, have run it live for months with no instability. Automated too.

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 monpere 
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Lornz View Post
What I would like to know is why someone would want to use NT at all, much less for automated trading?

Aside from being underfunded, I guess? (I am not trying to be offensive)

Unless the program specifically has it in for me and my experience deviates from the norm, I would argue that it's far too unstable to use for any serious trading. Especially automated!

I've found NT7 to be much more stable then NT6.5. Where I use to get daily crashes and hangs in NT6.5, in NT7 this occurs less then once a month now. Hopefully it will get continually better with future releases. My main draw to NT is because of the power of C#, and the fact I was able to user the platform for free while developing and proofing my concepts. What platform do you use for automation?

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 RM99 
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To veer back toward the original thread intent.....

For all you discretionary guys....

How many times have you said to yourself..."Man I wish I could have gotten in earlier" or "I sure wish I could have gotten out when the signals told me to."

My experience with discretionary was that by the time I had checked, rechecked, TRIPLE checked to ensure my entry criteria were met, the opportunity was either diminished or gone altogether.

The same was true for anything other than basic bracket exits. If I had exit signals based off market action or anything other than a simple OCO.....I always ended up saying....man I wish I'd have gotten out sooner, I'd have kept more profit (or reduced my loss).

If you multiply that concept by the incident rate, times the number of trades, the concept quickly adds up.

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 liquidcci 
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These are some great comments on managing risks with an auto trader. I think like designing a plane you have to take a hard look at what can go wrong and design for worst case. I have extensively looked at this on my system and can't say it is fail safe but have things in place that give me a good amount of confidence. Even so if I go leave my system unattended I keep laptop with me at all times so can access my server. Autopilot works great but still want a pilot close by just in case.

A few things I do to protect my system.

I recently went to a dedicated server close to the exchanges. This gives me speed but also gives me redundant internet connections power backup etc.. My provider guarantees 100% uptime but even so I still believe there is always risk of going down. Not only can internet connections be lost but no way to mitigate risk of hardware failure. I feel like dedicated server in a data center minimizes risk in this area but does not negate it completely.

As it has been discussed here with most brokers Ninjatrader places stops at the exchange but any OCO orders are managed on your local machine. Meaning any targets, break even moves, trailing stops etc sit on your machine. If your machine goes down these things will not be managed while down. But you will still have a stop at the exchange that protects you.

One of my worst fears because of OCO targets being on local machine has always been what happens if in a trade I lose internet connection the stop gets filled while connection is down. Connection then comes back up and NT does not realize stop has been filled so it keeps managing targets. Target gets filled and is now a rogue trade with no stop because stop at exchange was filled. In essence the trade was over with stop being filled so target getting filled would not end trade but just leave a floater on the market with no protection.

Under this scenario would be better if connection never came back up and stop filled ending the trade. What I do to protect my system in this scenario is when the connection comes back up I have auto trade strategy immediately close any open orders if stop was not filled and close all pendings like targets etc. I also have it stop taking any new trades and notify me that connection was lost but came back up. I essentially have it reset itself and do nothing until I can take a look at it see what went wrong.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 monpere 
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RM99 View Post
To veer back toward the original thread intent.....

For all you discretionary guys....

How many times have you said to yourself..."Man I wish I could have gotten in earlier" or "I sure wish I could have gotten out when the signals told me to."

My experience with discretionary was that by the time I had checked, rechecked, TRIPLE checked to ensure my entry criteria were met, the opportunity was either diminished or gone altogether.

The same was true for anything other than basic bracket exits. If I had exit signals based off market action or anything other than a simple OCO.....I always ended up saying....man I wish I'd have gotten out sooner, I'd have kept more profit (or reduced my loss).

If you multiply that concept by the incident rate, times the number of trades, the concept quickly adds up.

My saying is, if you find yourself regularly saying "I should have..." regarding your trades, you are not going to last long in this business.

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 Xeno 
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Xeno View Post
By the way, is there any support for asking Big Mike to create a forum called something like

"Automated systems and testing"

I've created a thread for this in Feedback. Discussion and messages of support would be very welcome there


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 Silver Dragon 
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if you dont mind me asking, who do use for the dedicated server?

SD


liquidcci View Post
These are some great comments on managing risks with an auto trader. I think like designing a plane you have to take a hard look at what can go wrong and design for worst case. I have extensively looked at this on my system and can't say it is fail safe but have things in place that give me a good amount of confidence. Even so if I go leave my system unattended I keep laptop with me at all times so can access my server. Autopilot works great but still want a pilot close by just in case.

A few things I do to protect my system.

I recently went to a dedicated server close to the exchanges. This gives me speed but also gives me redundant internet connections power backup etc.. My provider guarantees 100% uptime but even so I still believe there is always risk of going down. Not only can internet connections be lost but no way to mitigate risk of hardware failure. I feel like dedicated server in a data center minimizes risk in this area but does not negate it completely.

As it has been discussed here with most brokers Ninjatrader places stops at the exchange but any OCO orders are managed on your local machine. Meaning any targets, break even moves, trailing stops etc sit on your machine. If your machine goes down these things will not be managed while down. But you will still have a stop at the exchange that protects you.

One of my worst fears because of OCO targets being on local machine has always been what happens if in a trade I lose internet connection the stop gets filled while connection is down. Connection then comes back up and NT does not realize stop has been filled so it keeps managing targets. Target gets filled and is now a rogue trade with no stop because stop at exchange was filled. In essence the trade was over with stop being filled so target getting filled would not end trade but just leave a floater on the market with no protection.

Under this scenario would be better if connection never came back up and stop filled ending the trade. What I do to protect my system in this scenario is when the connection comes back up I have auto trade strategy immediately close any open orders if stop was not filled and close all pendings like targets etc. I also have it stop taking any new trades and notify me that connection was lost but came back up. I essentially have it reset itself and do nothing until I can take a look at it see what went wrong.


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 liquidcci 
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Silver Dragon View Post
if you dont mind me asking, who do use for the dedicated server?

SD


Don't mind at all. I am using steadfast networks. So far they have been good and I am getting less than 1ms latency to the rithmic servers. I wrote a up a post about my experience so far here


"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 liquidcci 
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Lornz View Post
What I would like to know is why someone would want to use NT at all, much less for automated trading?

Aside from being underfunded, I guess? (I am not trying to be offensive)

Unless the program specifically has it in for me and my experience deviates from the norm, I would argue that it's far too unstable to use for any serious trading. Especially automated!

NT 6.5 had some problems but I find NT7 works quite well. Couple it with a zenfire or rithmic feed and it is very fast and quite stable. I think it depends what you are doing. I don't know if I would use it for a scalp type strategy where trades were going off every few seconds or minutes. It might work fine for that I have never tried but it might tax it. I think every platform has it's advantages and disadvantages. Just have to make sure the strategy being used works well within the limitations of the platform.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 liquidcci 
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Xeno View Post
I've created a thread for this in Feedback. Discussion and messages of support would be very welcome there


I would suggest anyone who is an autotrader or interested go to thread Xeno posted above and put up a post saying you would support a forum for autotrading. There are so many topics to discuss around autotrading that have a dedicated forum where multiple threads can run on the subject in one place would be beneficial. His thread is a request for the forum to be created on Big Mikes.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 liquidcci 
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Silver Dragon View Post
if you dont mind me asking, who do use for the dedicated server?

SD

FYI I updated this thread with info on why I no longer recommend Steadfast networks. See bottom of first post


"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 Lornz 
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monpere View Post
I've found NT7 to be much more stable then NT6.5. Where I use to get daily crashes and hangs in NT6.5, in NT7 this occurs less then once a month now. Hopefully it will get continually better with future releases. My main draw to NT is because of the power of C#, and the fact I was able to user the platform for free while developing and proofing my concepts. What platform do you use for automation?

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RM99 View Post
To veer back toward the original thread intent.....

For all you discretionary guys....

How many times have you said to yourself..."Man I wish I could have gotten in earlier" or "I sure wish I could have gotten out when the signals told me to."

My experience with discretionary was that by the time I had checked, rechecked, TRIPLE checked to ensure my entry criteria were met, the opportunity was either diminished or gone altogether.


I can't think of anything more stressful than reacting to signals manually. The power of discretionary trading lies in placing limit orders in advance...

The whole point is to anticipate likely scenarios and places your orders accordingly...

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 Massive l 
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RM99 View Post
To veer back toward the original thread intent.....

For all you discretionary guys....

How many times have you said to yourself..."Man I wish I could have gotten in earlier" or "I sure wish I could have gotten out when the signals told me to."

My experience with discretionary was that by the time I had checked, rechecked, TRIPLE checked to ensure my entry criteria were met, the opportunity was either diminished or gone altogether.

The same was true for anything other than basic bracket exits. If I had exit signals based off market action or anything other than a simple OCO.....I always ended up saying....man I wish I'd have gotten out sooner, I'd have kept more profit (or reduced my loss).

If you multiply that concept by the incident rate, times the number of trades, the concept quickly adds up.

When you're learning, that's pretty normal.

After thousands of hours of screen time you should have a well enough developed method
where you are not saying that.

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 monpere 
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Massive l View Post
When you're learning, that's pretty normal.

After thousands of hours of screen time you should have a well enough developed method
where you are not saying that.

If your entries and exits are not based on concrete rules, you will always or frequently be saying "I should have..." even after 100,000 hours of screen time, even after after 700,000 trades. If your entries and exits are not the same every time, then your entries will most likely be based on greed, and your exits on fear, and most of the time there is regret associate with those.

It is amazing how much clearer your analysis of the market is, when you don't have 20 contracts on the line. Your brain will actually play tricks on you - that resistance level will all of a sudden be 20 times as threatening. That support level will vanish, only to re-appear after you are out of the trade. That's why phrases like: I didn't see this... I should have done that... are regular in the vocabulary of discretionary traders.

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 liquidcci 
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monpere View Post
If your entries and exits are not based on concrete rules, you will always or frequently be saying "I should have..." even after 100,000 hours of screen time, even after after 700,000 trades. If your entries and exits are not the same every time, then your entries will most likely be based on greed, and your exits on fear, and most of the time there is regret associate with those. It is amazing how much clearer your analysis of the market is, when you don't have 20 contracts on the line.

Regret and self loathing, feeling of worthless followed by moments of shear exhilaration from the greed effect, conquer the world, high five, I am the man and a genius, the strut followed again by regret etc... on and on.

Sounds like emotional torture. Maybe should call it the "Trading Water boarding Method"

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 Xeno 
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Lornz View Post
CQG IC

The power of discretionary trading lies in placing limit orders in advance...

Actually that's a solution to a disadvantage of discretionary trading. You might even say you've been forced into advance limit orders by a drawback of discretionary ;-)

Anyway, plenty of my auto strats do advance limit orders...

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 monpere 
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Xeno View Post
Actually that's a solution to a disadvantage of discretionary trading. You might even say you've been forced into advance limit orders by a drawback of discretionary ;-)

Anyway, plenty of my auto strats do advance limit orders...

I trade range charts, and my strategies place my entry orders in advance, before the trigger bar completes, because with range charts you know the exact tick where the bar will close.

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 Lornz 
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Xeno View Post
Actually that's a solution to a disadvantage of discretionary trading. You might even say you've been forced into advance limit orders by a drawback of discretionary ;-)

Anyway, plenty of my auto strats do advance limit orders...

You're missing the whole point.

First of all, it's not either/or. Some of us actually deploy various strategies simultaneously.

Second, it is clear you did not read the last sentence of my post. Different things drives the market at different times, and an agile mind is far better suited to adapt to the ever-changing variables to consider at a particular time than a computer. But if you're simply basing you entries/exits on different indicators based on price series, automation is probably the way to go.

When it comes to HFT and market making, the machine wins hands down. But as you move up in time frames, the value of intellect should become apparent.

On a third note, it seems that a lot of the readers of this thread see the world in black and white; Either you have a method automated or you are just guessing.

There actually exists something in between...

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 monpere 
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Lornz View Post
You're missing the whole point.

First of all, it's not either/or. Some of us actually deploy various strategies simultaneously.

Second, it is clear you did not read the last sentence of my post. Different things drives the market at different times, and an agile mind is far better suited to adapt to the ever-changing variables to consider at a particular time than a computer. But if you're simply basing you entries/exits on different indicators based on price series, automation is probably the way to go.

When it comes to HFT and market making, the machine wins hands down. But as you move up in time frames, the value of intellect should become apparent.

On a third note, it seems that a lot of the readers of this thread see the world in black and white; Either you have a method automated or you are just guessing.

There actually exists something in between...

Nothing wrong with guessing... as long as your guesses have a statistical foundation that says you will be right x number of times out of y.

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 rpm123 
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Lornz View Post
On a third note, it seems that a lot of the readers of this thread see the world in black and white; Either you have a method automated or you are just guessing.

There actually exists something in between...

I'm thinking it is more of a natural progression, and nuanced at that.

First, you trade by the seat of your pants, ride the emotional roller coaster, try out different indicators, and blow out your account.

Second time around, you build rules for taking trades that perform well in the market, and also address your emotional limitations. You follow them most of the time, and do fairly well. But not as good as you can mark up a chart, according to your rules, would have done that day/week/month.

Then, you look to automate - thru the ATM, and ultimately thru a bot. Executing a strategy perfectly. And then fine tune the bot, when it does not do what it is suppose to do.

That is the stage I'm at. Reading the pitfalls and positives of automation here and elsewhere is helping me to fine tune my strategies to fit automation.

Thanks for the thread.

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 liquidcci 
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Lornz View Post
You're missing the whole point.

First of all, it's not either/or. Some of us actually deploy various strategies simultaneously.

Second, it is clear you did not read the last sentence of my post. Different things drives the market at different times, and an agile mind is far better suited to adapt to the ever-changing variables to consider at a particular time than a computer. But if you're simply basing you entries/exits on different indicators based on price series, automation is probably the way to go.

When it comes to HFT and market making, the machine wins hands down. But as you move up in time frames, the value of intellect should become apparent.

On a third note, it seems that a lot of the readers of this thread see the world in black and white; Either you have a method automated or you are just guessing.

There actually exists something in between...

I think most pure mechanical traders do see the market as black and white it is just our nature. I think we also see any hybrid as a deviation from a system where you go into a black hole on being able to measure the probabilities.

I also want to clarify most of my comments on system trading revolve around day trading. I think the shorter the time frame the more essential a rules based mechanical system with no discretion becomes. In fact I believe strongly trying to day trade in a discretionary way will end badly at some point.

I think if you have a longer time frame days, weeks, months, years and do things like build options positions discretion can play a positive role. But those types of strategies give you plenty of time to maneuver like a chess game. You make educated guesses but usually get the opportunity to hedge those guesses and build wide positions that market can land and still make a profit. Where day trading is very unforgiving of any discretion.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 Massive l 
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monpere View Post
Nothing wrong with guessing... as long as your guesses have a statistical foundation that says you will be right x number of times out of y.

In that sense, automated traders as guessing too then. They build a foundation, run a backtest and see the results.
They 'guess' some more and try different parameters or indicators and run another backtest. Results are getting better. Tweak a few more things. Another backtest. Oops...I had better results before. Take out that 'guess' and
try another new 'guess'. Backtest again.

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  #280 (permalink)
 monpere 
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Massive l View Post
In that sense, automated traders as guessing too then. They build a foundation, run a backtest and see the results.
They 'guess' some more and try different parameters or indicators and run another backtest. Results are getting better. Tweak a few more things. Another backtest. Oops...I had better results before. Take out that 'guess' and
try another new 'guess'. Backtest again.

Yup. That's how I see it. I think trading in itself is about taking educated guesses. If you cannot predict with certainty the outcome of an event, you are guessing. So, to that end every bot is continually guessing with every trade, the only thing is, those guesses are not random, they are based on historical statistical analysis and derived probable outcomes.

If I give a discretionary trader a setup that is guaranteed 80% winners, guaranteed !!! I will bet you, he will disregard the stats, and he will try to cherry pick the 20% losers out of the method. And that is what will make him fail with that method.

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 Big Mike 
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  #282 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
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Big Mike View Post
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If the OP agrees, let me know and I'll move it.

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Mike

Sure Mike you can move it to where it fits best. This thread kind of walks the line between psychology and auto trading. I lean towards leaving it here as it is really about how I conquered my psychological issues. But I will leave it to your discretion on where to put it no pun intended.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 Massive l 
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I'm sure this is relatively easy to code but what program would you use to backtest the code?

Here's an example:
Historical data (200 days) of a hammer (or dragon fly) candle stick with 1.5 times or more the average volume in a 5-10 day downtrend on a 1 hour chart.

This is of nothing of great importance, just something I would like to see.

I personally love stats so I would most likely get caught up running these sort of backtests all day
while taking notes.

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  #284 (permalink)
 monpere 
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Massive l View Post
I'm sure this is relatively easy to code but what program would you use to backtest the code?

Here's an example:
Historical data (200 days) of a hammer (or dragon fly) candle stick with 1.5 times or more the average volume in a 5-10 day downtrend on a 1 hour chart.

This is of nothing of great importance, just something I would like to see.

I personally love stats so I would most likely get caught up running these sort of backtests all day
while taking notes.

With NinjaTrader, you can write an indicator that looks for those instances, count them or calculate your desired stats, then load 200 days of data on a chart with that indicator.

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  #285 (permalink)
 Lornz 
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liquidcci View Post
I think most pure mechanical traders do see the market as black and white it is just our nature. I think we also see any hybrid as a deviation from a system where you go into a black hole on being able to measure the probabilities.

I also want to clarify most of my comments on system trading revolve around day trading. I think the shorter the time frame the more essential a rules based mechanical system with no discretion becomes. In fact I believe strongly trying to day trade in a discretionary way will end badly at some point.

I think if you have a longer time frame days, weeks, months, years and do things like build options positions discretion can play a positive role. But those types of strategies give you plenty of time to maneuver like a chess game. You make educated guesses but usually get the opportunity to hedge those guesses and build wide positions that market can land and still make a profit. Where day trading is very unforgiving of any discretion.

Well, you have had some quite incredible scalpers. Rotter and Priston comes to mind... Both earning 8 figures before venturing out.

It really it quite simple. If you can build an algorithm doing it, you have several minds being capable of the same. In fact, an agile mind is more powerful today's computers in several fields. Why would it be hard to believe that someone has the innate ability to model markets?

But I agree that automation is favorable when it comes to day trading, at least if the trade frequency is high. The more often you execute trades, the more sense it makes to try to automate that. When it comes to longer term trading where fundamentals plays a part, I will claim that it makes more sense to use discretion. There are plenty of billionaire investors, but not many day traders.

As for myself, my discretionary approach still outperforms my automated ones. Both on returns and risk.
I only take a few trades a day, though.

Personally, I find it better to take fewer trades with larger size...


monpere View Post
Nothing wrong with guessing... as long as your guesses have a statistical foundation that says you will be right x number of times out of y.

Exactly! I used to make my living off sports betting (which is legal here), and I still use a lot of the same principles when it comes to trading. In fact, they work much better in this field.


rpm123 View Post
I'm thinking it is more of a natural progression, and nuanced at that.

First, you trade by the seat of your pants, ride the emotional roller coaster, try out different indicators, and blow out your account.

Second time around, you build rules for taking trades that perform well in the market, and also address your emotional limitations. You follow them most of the time, and do fairly well. But not as good as you can mark up a chart, according to your rules, would have done that day/week/month.

Then, you look to automate - thru the ATM, and ultimately thru a bot. Executing a strategy perfectly. And then fine tune the bot, when it does not do what it is suppose to do.

That is the stage I'm at. Reading the pitfalls and positives of automation here and elsewhere is helping me to fine tune my strategies to fit automation.

Thanks for the thread.

I somewhat agree. But I also take it most people here are just trading off indicators based on price series?

If someone also has automated fundamental data coupled with price action, I would be most interested in hearing about it...

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  #286 (permalink)
 Lornz 
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I just want to add that am I very much in favor of automation. And I hope to be able to model my intraday trading soon enough..

I am advocating both... There usually are a couple of very good opportunities every year where it makes sense to be aggressive. You lose those with automation, and those events are a good way of building wealth.

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 liquidcci 
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Lornz View Post
There usually are a couple of very good opportunities every year where it makes sense to be aggressive. You lose those with automation, and those events are a good way of building wealth.

I would agree. A couple of years ago when market went into free fall FCX went from around $120 to $15 per share because of hedge fund liquidations. It now sits at $53 which is actually $106 before it split. I used pure discretion and bought calls and long verticals when price was at $17 and profited quite nicely.

I will not use any discretion day trading but black swan event on the right company or commodity to hold for longer term I will.

My view is there is a place for discretion but only in longer term.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 liquidcci 
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One other thought to anyone thinking of going an autotrade route. If you have developed a system but are not a programmer. There are programmers you can pay to code your scripts. In other words you do not have to know how to code to have a bot. I think some don't explore going this route because they don't know how to code. I am very very basic in my coding abilities and the bot I have goes beyond those abilities.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 TheTrend 
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Good thread.

I fully agree discretionary day-trading is not for everyone.

I always considered myself as disciplined but when it comes to trading you have to be really, REALLY, strong.

Also I've decided to automate my strategies and I discover a whole new world.

Actuall I find that doing research, programming, back-testing etc ... much more fun than trading in itself.

I don't feel exhausted at the end of the day anymore and the losses don't affect me.

So there's some great discretionay scalpers out there and my hat off to them but everyone has to find its own way

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 dutchbookmaker 
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Lornz View Post
It really it quite simple. If you can build an algorithm doing it, you have several minds being capable of the same. In fact, an agile mind is more powerful today's computers in several fields. Why would it be hard to believe that someone has the innate ability to model markets?

From working at banks and being a monkey boy for "smart money" it seems to me every retail trader overestimates institutional trading.
Trading is a strange mix of right/left brain that the guy who gets a perfect SAT score doesn't have.
To my mind the ultimate trader is some burly, seasoned Chicago pitt guy with decades experience but also has a phd in financial engineering.
Lenny Baum is Simmon's Charlie Munger but you never hear about him. He can model anything and also has a speculator mindset.
IMO the real problem traders have overall, retail or institutional is laziness. Neither want to study hard enough to become Lenny Baum/Simmons or Wykoff/Livermore, let alone both.

People will buy any bullshit book on TA, yet all the advances in trading fall under quant finance for the last 15 years. You can skip college and learn Mathematica, yet try to find shit on mathematica and trading.

There will always be an edge to find in any kind of gambling game for those who are willing to far out bust their ass.
Refer to my sig quote...I quote that line whenever I hear someone say everything has been invented. As if people didn't think the same at that time.

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 dutchbookmaker 
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Lornz View Post
Exactly! I used to make my living off sports betting (which is legal here), and I still use a lot of the same principles when it comes to trading. In fact, they work much better in this field.


That is awesome! This will be my first year betting discretionary sports betting wise. I think most retail traders are fools for not learning about other gambling games.
My rules are:
My edge is that my team is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I've noticed that I totally have an edge when I would bet against them on the spread. At that point the spread + my knowledge of the matchup gives a nice margin of error.
I'll be running a peon Bodog account, so liquidity/line shopping is not part of the game.
I don't envision more than 2 or 3 bets the whole college season, especially that as a prior I think Nebraska is underrated right now. It is a hugely EV+ thing to do though just for drilling patience into the brain under uncertainty.

To me the best advice a newb trader can get is to do everything you can to expose yourself to making decisions under uncertainty, especially with money on the line.

All my winnings I'll blow off playing heads up 5nl poker. Which to me, any trader that doesn't play heads up poker is a complete fool.

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 Lornz 
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dutchbookmaker View Post
From working at banks and being a monkey boy for "smart money" it seems to me every retail trader overestimates institutional trading.
Trading is a strange mix of right/left brain that the guy who gets a perfect SAT score doesn't have.
To my mind the ultimate trader is some burly, seasoned Chicago pitt guy with decades experience but also has a phd in financial engineering.
Lenny Baum is Simmon's Charlie Munger but you never hear about him. He can model anything and also has a speculator mindset.
IMO the real problem traders have overall, retail or institutional is laziness. Neither want to study hard enough to become Lenny Baum/Simmons or Wykoff/Livermore, let alone both.

People will buy any bullshit book on TA, yet all the advances in trading fall under quant finance for the last 15 years. You can skip college and learn Mathematica, yet try to find shit on mathematica and trading.

There will always be an edge to find in any kind of gambling game for those who are willing to far out bust their ass.
Refer to my sig quote...I quote that line whenever I hear someone say everything has been invented. As if people didn't think the same at that time.

I agree. I'll be the first to admit that my FE skills leave a lot to be desired, which is something I am trying to remedy now... But I am amazed at how far rudimentary probability and statistics can get you...

I've always been fascinated with the works of Ed Thorp, and feel he had a very practical approach to things...



dutchbookmaker View Post
That is awesome! This will be my first year betting discretionary sports betting wise. I think most retail traders are fools for not learning about other gambling games.
My rules are:
My edge is that my team is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I've noticed that I totally have an edge when I would bet against them on the spread. At that point the spread + my knowledge of the matchup gives a nice margin of error.
I'll be running a peon Bodog account, so liquidity/line shopping is not part of the game.
I don't envision more than 2 or 3 bets the whole college season, especially that as a prior I think Nebraska is underrated right now. It is a hugely EV+ thing to do though just for drilling patience into the brain under uncertainty.

To me the best advice a newb trader can get is to do everything you can to expose yourself to making decisions under uncertainty, especially with money on the line.

All my winnings I'll blow off playing heads up 5nl poker. Which to me, any trader that doesn't play heads up poker is a complete fool.

I focused primarily on soccer (The Champions League in particular), and did quite well. After a while I got scared by stories of big winners getting "thrown out" and having their accounts blocked etc, and I wondered if my time would be better spent in more liquid markets. Therefore I turned to finance...

I also did some work on horse betting, especially combinations like exactas and the daily double. There are not many systematic gamblers in Norway it seems, because you could find value quite often. But the liquidity is not something to rejoice over...

You have awaken my primal urges. I suddenly feel the need to get back on the saddle...

Good luck with your betting venture!

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  #293 (permalink)
 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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TheTrend View Post
Good thread.

I fully agree discretionary day-trading is not for everyone.

I always considered myself as disciplined but when it comes to trading you have to be really, REALLY, strong.

Also I've decided to automate my strategies and I discover a whole new world.

Actuall I find that doing research, programming, back-testing etc ... much more fun than trading in itself.

I don't feel exhausted at the end of the day anymore and the losses don't affect me.

So there's some great discretionay scalpers out there and my hat off to them but everyone has to find its own way


Good luck on your journey. You will be glad you made it. It is a much more relaxing existence when you let the bot execute your strategy.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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 monpere 
Bala, PA, USA
 
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Finally got the autotrader to do half a decent job on the entries.

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 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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monpere View Post
Finally got the autotrader to do half a decent job on the entries.

Very nice monpere.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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L4G4D3LL1C
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liquidcci View Post
But then I decided to build my signals into an auto trade strategy. It was the best time and money I ever spent. It 100% solved my discipline issues. I have not entered a rogue trade outside of my plan for 2 years and am profitable. This may not work for everyone but was only way I could overcome the darkness that lurks in every trader.

haha, that's me exactly. well i didn't have the same problems as you. but it takes disipline to place stops etc etc. and just one bad day can cost big money.
So i'm developing some auto-strategies for that reason as well.

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 liquidcci 
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L4G4D3LL1C View Post
haha, that's me exactly. well i didn't have the same problems as you. but it takes disipline to place stops etc etc. and just one bad day can cost big money.
So i'm developing some auto-strategies for that reason as well.


Good for you. You will be glad you went down the AT road. So many benefits.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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andyb1979
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Hey liquidcci - just to say I agree totally with your position. I'm a software engineer with phd in signal processing and as my bias gets in the way of trading successfully, I'm moving over to full-auto.

I'd appreciate any advice while doing this ; )

I have at present 3 algos that give good returns on the S&P500. Stock indices I know a bit about. However I'd like to move to Forex. FX has a totally different personality and the strategies I use on stock indices plain don't work on FX.

I'd be more than happy to trade a bit of information / collaborate etc on developing winning algos : )

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andyb1979
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BTW I should add, earlier this year I closed and cashed out all my trading accounts (still frozen) and put cash in the bank. During this time I've been backtesting / researching algorithms. The very practice of doing this (backtest) has allowed me to see why I was failing before.

Firstly the difference between winning at trading and losing is incredibly fine. Its a knife edge - so much so that if an optimum algorithm changes its parameters only slightly, it loses. How much more so will you as a trader lose if you have a plan and fail to obey it exactly and to the letter? A winning strategy can be turned into a long term loser just by hesitation.

Secondly strategy trading has shown me you actually can't predict the future, and its all just a probabilities game. Unless you know your probability of winning/losing based on historical testing how are you going to hold your nerve when the strategy is taking a drawdown? How are you going to avoid ruin if you don't know your risk of ruin? Or don't keep accurate records? etc...

Finally I am beginning to see now what gives you an edge and starting to produce some consistently profitable strategies. Ok fine they require regular re-optimisation and there's always the danger of curve fitting, but hey its a start. Much better than seat of the pants trading which may work for 1 month, 2 months, even a year but ultimately, it will fail and when it does take your profit and more.

Discpline is key and what is more disciplined than a machine?

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andyb1979
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I'm reading through the pages.


liquidcci View Post
I know guys personally who made a few million feeling the market but went broke. When you try to feel the market you are betting against the house and the house will eventually take it all back. If you program the right auto system with good probabilities or have the discipline to manually trade a mechanical system you become the house.

YES totally agree.

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