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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside
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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside

  #191 (permalink)
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RM99 View Post
No, but to assume that you or I or anyone for that matter could simply educate/study/research/ etc our way to that sort of performance is a bit lofty.

I'm always a fan of stretch goals....."shoot for the stars, that way, even if you fall short, you still end up on the moon."

I'm not claiming discretionary trading is inherently flawed. I'm just saying that automation holds a lot of advantages for me personally.

I agree. I tend to believe that successful discretionary trading is largely genetic.... I have automated systems, I am not against it in any way, shape or form...



Xeno View Post
That is my point - to not talk about universal truths (and is why my observation was flippant). The number of great discretionary traders tells us little about the merits of auto trading, esp given that auto trading is more of a recent thing.

I've seen how finance works. Indeed discretionary can be powerful. I've also seen it screw up loads of times. I've seen the profit bottom line be the most important measure of 'performance' until it all blows up and people realise risk-return wasn't so clever.

The bottom line for me is that people can have all the opinions they like about the merits, and I'll respect those opinions, but when the disc crowd start telling the automated crowd how useless their work is it gets really annoying. Especially, given the irony that the automated crowd are much better positioned to evaluate their performance in a statistically rigorous way.

I am not in that "crowd". I am a "believer" in automation, I automate as much as I can. Where automation fails, though, is with the rare occurrences that provide extremely lucrative opportunities.

I would argue that there still is a place for the good ol' Speculator...

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  #192 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
Well I am a mechanical trader and when I move into discretion and lose a certain amount of predetermined money I am not violating my rules. It is only when I cannot switch back to mechanical and continue with discretion do I violate my rules, and that hasn't happened. It is a balancing act. If what you mean by 'move into discretion', as pure gambling without the ability to stop, then sure you'll blow your account. Discretionary trading isn't just blindly placing a trade, Its intuition from watching the market for hundreds of hours and understanding what is going on. Patterns click sometimes outside your regular defined methods. Everything, in essence, is a pattern. It is only when you ignorantly go against your money management do you mess up with this.

It can't be a disaster if you stop. If you stopped discretion at 100k we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Here is the problem in moving back and forth between discretion and mechanical.

A good mechanical system is based on probabilities. Staying away from low probability trades and taking high probability trades over and over again.

Lets say you know 6 out of 10 times probabilities show a trade works and you have both backtesting and live testing results that prove that out. The problem is this the moment you use your discretion and do not enter a trade your system said you should have or enter a trade that your system did not signal your probabilities have now changed. This may work in your favor at times but over the long haul making random decisions about what you think the market will do invalidates your system because you no longer can measure it. The difference between being profitable and unprofitable is a fine edge. When you change your probabilities through trying to feel the market eventually the house will take your money.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."

Last edited by liquidcci; June 27th, 2011 at 10:45 AM.
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  #193 (permalink)
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Xeno View Post

(For what it's worth, I don't think disc trading is fatally flawed, but I think it's very hard to say whether you are good at it, or just lucky, because it's very hard to calculate your performance against expectation. I asked twice on this forum for a disc trader to say how they tested their system, and how they have any sort of expectancy for their system. Complete silence. Hey, here's a flippant observation: The percentage of disc traders who have been successful for the last three years is probably the same as the percentage of traders you would statistically expect to be profitable for three years through luck alone.)


The above comment is one of the best thoughts in this thread. Thanks for the thought Xeno.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #194 (permalink)
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liquidcci View Post
Here is the problem in moving back and forth between discretion and mechanical.

A good mechanical system is based on probabilities. Staying away from low probability trades and taking high probability trades over and over again.

Lets say you know 6 out of 10 times probabilities show a trade works and you have both backtesting and live testing results that prove that out. The problem is this the moment you use your discretion and do not enter a trade your system said you should have or enter a trade that your system did not signal your probabilities have now changed. This may work in your favor at times but over the long haul making random decisions about what you think the market will do invalidates your system because you no longer can measure it. The difference between being profitable and unprofitable is a fine edge. When you change your probabilities through trying to feel the market eventually the house will take your money.

The problem with that statement is, if the person you are talking to does not have a grasp of the concepts of statistical analysis, probability, and expectancy, then you are wasting your breath.

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  #195 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHASDFADFASDFA.......

Look, Tonight try to get 20k. Maybe in a few days you might be able to break 100k. The act of trading 10k to 100k in one session shouldn't last more than an hour or two when you've broken the learning curve. The point is to teach your brain to identify good trading opportunities without indicators or statistics by repetition. You will fail over and over, but if you keep at it you'll get it after a couple hours like learning to ride a bike.

You will see how simple trading can be improved by waiting, time-lapsing, or switching charts till you get a good setup to execute. MIND CONTROL. If you do this time and time again you will understand this isn't gambling. You don't need rigid details about your setups other than they are significantly more predictable than other setups. I suggest you look for key resistance and support levels by using different time frames. You will see that price works up to bounce off of, or poises up to break through these levels in reoccurring patterns.

This isn't validation of my "fluid" trading methodology, It's simply a crash course on trading stocks without training wheels. Learn through experience.

When your done, try it on CL in simulation. Samething.

OMG! Play the chartgame for 2 hours, then go trade the CL... Totally delusional... just plain laughable

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  #196 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
OMG! Play the chartgame for 2 hours, then go trade the CL... Totally delusional... just plain laughable


Monpere you are totally twisting my words around, yet again. I said to play the chartgame.com till you get to 100k with no indicators or statistics, then use the same tactics on CL in SIMULATION because it is in essence the same thing. Never just jump into trading a system that you barely know. Damn monpere do you even know how to trade?
DO IT ON ANY INSTRUMENT IF YOU SO CHOOSE. IT DOESN'T MATTER. the only reason I said to use the chartgame is because it allows you to speed up time, which makes it somewhat easier to come to the conclusion faster.

AND AGAIN, MONPERE HAVE YOU GOTTEN TO 100K? NO? then shut up. Don't post on my methods until you can back up your statements.

AND AGAIN, I still want proof automated systems work. no one has given me any or directed me to any proof. How do you expect me to even believe any of this. I know what works for me, but how are you going to make me believe something that is theoretically possible but not provable. You guys believe in Statistics, well I want statistics on a successful longterm automated program. Is that too much to ask for?

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  #197 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
The problem with that statement is, if the person you are talking to does not have a grasp of the concepts of statistical analysis, probability, and expectancy, then you are wasting your breath.


post the system, the statistics, probability, and expectancy. I'd like to see this. You haven't been able to do this for me before. Is this too much to ask for?

PROVE YOURSELF
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  #198 (permalink)
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There comes a point in time when I just stop caring what others believe, I try to help them understand, but they will just keep making the same mistake till they learn it on their own. Those I can teach, who appreciate it, were already on the path to figuring it out.

It seems like you guys who use automated systems want to believe it's possible, you might get some statistics that seem promising, but overall you can't come to terms with the fact that it doesn't work. Its like the slow grips of fate tearing into your trading career. Can't trade discretionary, can't trade mechanically, and automation barely works either.

I'd love to be proven a fool that automation works on a retail level. And, that automation works on a more or less consistent level longterm basis. This would probably encourage me to pull out some programming books and get back into it. But, like I said, I have yet to see any Evidence that stands on its own two feet.

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  #199 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
post the system, the statistics, probability, and expectancy. I'd like to see this. You haven't been able to do this for me before. Is this too much to ask for?

PROVE YOURSELF
-.-

sidney this thread is for grownups. Please stop making it personal and asking for data that you are not going to get. Nothing anyone put up could be validated so it is pointless for you to keep pulling that card out every time your ideas are challenged.

This has been a good thread with much good discussion pro and con. But quite honestly your comments have been all over the place and quite confused. We are not asking anyone to backup comments with broker statements. But we are asking for logical well thought out comments that are not swinging all over the place.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #200 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
Monpere you are totally twisting my words around, yet again. I said to play the chartgame.com till you get to 100k with no indicators or statistics, then use the same tactics on CL in SIMULATION because it is in essence the same thing. Never just jump into trading a system that you barely know. Damn monpere do you even know how to trade?
DO IT ON ANY INSTRUMENT IF YOU SO CHOOSE. IT DOESN'T MATTER. the only reason I said to use the chartgame is because it allows you to speed up time, which makes it somewhat easier to come to the conclusion faster.

AND AGAIN, MONPERE HAVE YOU GOTTEN TO 100K? NO? then shut up. Don't post on my methods until you can back up your statements.

AND AGAIN, I still want proof automated systems work. no one has given me any or directed me to any proof. How do you expect me to even believe any of this. I know what works for me, but how are you going to make me believe something that is theoretically possible but not provable. You guys believe in Statistics, well I want statistics on a successful longterm automated program. Is that too much to ask for?

And, how exactly do you know I have not gotten to 100K? That is quite presumptuous. If you start with more then 100K, getting to 100K has no meaning. Have you given any proof that your system works? What kind of proof do you want? Why would anyone care to give you proof? What is that worth to them? Do you think satisfying your satisfaction, would validate them? Would that make them feel proud? Thank about your request, and ask yourself why would anyone entertain that request. Unless someone gives you their account information for you to login to their account and examine their trade history and account balance, then asking for proof is futile. Any 5 year old can bring up Microsoft paint, type in some numbers, and show you what ever it is you want to see.

In a medium like this, all you can do is present the arguments that you believe in, with the theories and experience that support that belief. That may convince some people, influence others, or just cause them ponder. Others will be outright unmovable, because they are too well entrenched in their own belief. No amount of proof will convince them, and no amount of proof will guarantee that system will work for them.

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