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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside
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Auto trading is only thing that conquered my darkside

  #151 (permalink)
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liquidcci View Post
Another rhetorical question(s)

Could a few successful years trading at a persons own discretion be just a setup for a fall latter?

Kind of like a gambler on a lucky run. Is it possible the better you do the more risk you take which ultimately leads to your own demise? Can you become confident in your own genius as a trader but really just be in a streak?

Three separate times I took 5k to 100 k trading discretionary. No system, no stats just pure gut. Guess where that 300k eventually went?

And my best trade for 2011 will be that you changed your money management /trade allocation and that is why the 300k evaporated.

Collectively, you guys have made some very sound points to automate v discretionary and nobody is 'wrong"....they are all opinions based on experiences.

The "holy grail" cannot be created from 'automated' systems...thinking that the trader has overcome the psychological aspect....it simply does NOT exist.

For DT benefit...I am a trader who pretty well knows what I am doing ,but cannot code to save myself!!

Personally, I see some real advantages in'automating provided it is a simple strategy with a sound money management strategy.However, I had no luck getting it together; so I made the necessary adjustments and continue to trade manually...boring, profitable and a lot of hours.

The success in trading lies BETWEEN YOUR EARS regardless whether it be 'automated' that can be discretionary at will (shut off) =trouble; or purely discretionary where, again , the mind overrides the rules of the trade =trouble.



Good luck/trading to all.

Trader

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  #152 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
If you have your system Turn off during a volatile period or during a calm period your missing a HUGE window of trading opportunities. whose to say it won't turn off or on by false signals. You gotta manually program it every time to avoid news releases.

Just because you can't code this doesn't mean that it can't be done. It's not so difficult coding to spot differing volatility or scheduled news.

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  #153 (permalink)
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It is indeed difficult because even if you do get the volatility analyzed you have no guidance as to when or where to exit trades (except on opposite signals) and there is no indication of how you should set your stops or what contract size to trade. It is just like having one piece of a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle and trying to figure out the whole picture, it is very hard to get there.

Now what many people try at first is to setup a system with the entry signals and a fixed TP, SL and contract size. Try this and you will find that with ANY system you will NEVER achieve long term profitable results. This is because you are not looking at the big picture and you are just taking into account the most irrelevant aspect of trades, the entry. Knowing when to exit trades and how to trade is much more important and this is often a fact neglected by people new to automated system design. Especially for those who automate out of failure from discretionary trading.

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  #154 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
It is indeed difficult because even if you do get the volatility analyzed you have no guidance as to when or where to exit trades (except on opposite signals) and there is no indication of how you should set your stops or what contract size to trade. It is just like having one piece of a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle and trying to figure out the whole picture, it is very hard to get there.

Now what many people try at first is to setup a system with the entry signals and a fixed TP, SL and contract size. Try this and you will find that with ANY system you will NEVER achieve long term profitable results. This is because you are not looking at the big picture and you are just taking into account the most irrelevant aspect of trades, the entry. Knowing when to exit trades and how to trade is much more important and this is often a fact neglected by people new to automated system design. Especially for those who automate out of failure from discretionary trading.

Yeah, so there are pitfalls and stuff to watch out for, and probably many beginners get it all wrong. The thing is, you say things like you have to program manually every time to avoid news, and it's just not true.

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  #155 (permalink)
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Well If you don't program manually to avoid news then you have to account for a sudden loss at anytime you see the price randomly fly off the chart. Some systems use this to event to make profit. If that is your goal it's still a ridiculous amount of uncertainty at stake.

Let me clarify another point that has been circulating my head. If this guy traded 5k to 100k he obviously didn't do it one contract at a time. That is purely insensible. When you have more money you have the ability to risk proportionately more contracts. 1% gain on 10000 is 100, 1% gain on 50000 is 500. So why would he trade one contract at a time till he blew his account? or one contract at a time to make his account? Why would he veer off track and not pull himself away if he was trained enough to make 5k turn into 100k?

If he had one destructive day of compulsive trading that is in no way a means to discredit the art of discretionary trading. Thats like discouraging bus drivers because one randomly decides to go 100 mph to get the kids to school faster. Or a surgeon seeing that he cut one artery the wrong way, doesn't accept failure, so he keeps cutting and sewing different parts of the artery in a maddening lethal unorthodox way. This is a form of insanity "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." And, It shouldn't be connected with trading. I feel bad for anyone who was discouraged by this discussion to question their own ability to continue trading with success.

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  #156 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
Well If you don't program manually to avoid news then you have to account for a sudden loss at anytime you see the price randomly fly off the chart. Some systems use this to event to make profit. If that is your goal it's still a ridiculous amount of uncertainty at stake.

You're missing the point. You can program once, to download a calendar every week, and have your strategies delay entry or exit positions in a window around each scheduled economic news report. It was about three or four hours of coding. Doesn't require programming manually 'every time'.

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  #157 (permalink)
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sidney7g View Post
Well If you don't program manually to avoid news then you have to account for a sudden loss at anytime you see the price randomly fly off the chart. Some systems use this to event to make profit. If that is your goal it's still a ridiculous amount of uncertainty at stake.

Let me clarify another point that has been circulating my head. If this guy traded 5k to 100k he obviously didn't do it one contract at a time. That is purely insensible. When you have more money you have the ability to risk proportionately more contracts. 1% gain on 10000 is 100, 1% gain on 50000 is 500. So why would he trade one contract at a time till he blew his account? or one contract at a time to make his account? Why would he veer off track and not pull himself away if he was trained enough to make 5k turn into 100k?

If he had one destructive day of compulsive trading that is in no way a means to discredit the art of discretionary trading. Thats like discouraging bus drivers because one randomly decides to go 100 mph to get the kids to school faster. Or a surgeon seeing that he cut one artery the wrong way, doesn't accept failure, so he keeps cutting and sewing different parts of the artery in a maddening lethal unorthodox way. This is a form of insanity "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." And, It shouldn't be connected with trading. I feel bad for anyone who was discouraged by this discussion to question their own ability to continue trading with success.


Dr. Phil (sidney7)since you are infatuated with me and can't get me out of your head let me clarify. I traded discretionary for around 7 years. Yes 3 different times I took my account from 5k to over 100k but ultimately gave it all back to the market. Why? Because discretionary is fatally flawed. I think what may offend you and is driving you to diatribes is thought you can be successful at it yet on your way to a plane crash. I realize it is hard to come to that realization but better now to stop and form a mechanical system before you blow your account out. I am not saying have to automate although automation has some great benefits. I am saying a rules based system that is based on solid probabilities with good money management is the only way to win in the market long term.

Let me also clarify that my original post in this thread was not in my discretionary days. That original post speaks of my transition from discretionary to mechanical. I was developing a system and would abandon it's rules because I had so much discretionary baggage that still need to be purged from system. I was like a recovering discretionaryaholic that would go on wild binges. It was dark it was ugly and it was automation that finally got me over the hump and allowed me to let my system run which has lead to a nice equity curve.

I hope this give you more information so you can diagnose my psychiatric health much better.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #158 (permalink)
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Well next time you drive a car, are you not one slip of the wheel away from death? If you don't have the mental capacity to pull yourself away from the screen when you make a couple losses you need to reconsider what your doing for a career. How do you know you'll be able to program something that can't stop from trading after a couple losses. Also, tell me when you make 300k again from auto-trading, I'd like to know.

And, avoiding news is still only a small aspect of good automation trading.
Better yet, how do you adjust for volatility with automation?
How does your program know to change systems for fundamental impact on the market hours/days after
a news release? what about an unpredictable news release from Libya? what if Greek releases a news update spontaneously? can your program determine when something changed and stop trading based on a signal? can it turn back on based on another signal? does it turn off and miss a dozen great signals? Can it tell if price hit a previous high? Can it tie them in a knot? Can it tie them in a bow? Can it throw them o'er its shoulder like a continental soldier, can it produce as much dough?

@#$% Dr. phil

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  #159 (permalink)
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liquidcci View Post
Dr. Phil (sidney7)since you are infatuated with me and can't get me out of your head let me clarify. I traded discretionary for around 7 years. Yes 3 different times I took my account from 5k to over 100k but ultimately gave it all back to the market. Why? Because discretionary is fatally flawed. I think what may offend you and is driving you to diatribes is thought you can be successful at it yet on your way to a plane crash. I realize it is hard to come to that realization but better now to stop and form a mechanical system before you blow your account out. I am not saying have to automate although automation has some great benefits. I am saying a rules based system that is based on solid probabilities with good money management is the only way to win in the market long term.

Let me also clarify that my original post in this thread was not in my discretionary days. That original post speaks of my transition from discretionary to mechanical. I was developing a system and would abandon it's rules because I had so much discretionary baggage that still need to be purged from system. I was like a recovering discretionaryaholic that would go on wild binges. It was dark it was ugly and it was automation that finally got me over the hump and allowed me to let my system run which has lead to a nice equity curve.

I hope this give you more information so you can diagnose my psychiatric health much better.

Why are you guys entertaining the ramblings of this guy (sidney7) who clearly has no grasp of programming concepts, just spouts off nonsense in areas he has no expertise in, makes huge general assumptions about other people's systems which he has no first hand knowledge of, challenges people's claims with no reasonable cause, and makes ridiculous psychological assumptions and accusations about other people's mental state. Nothing this person has said so far has contributed anything positive or informative to this discussion. To the original thread starter, I have never advocated this, but you do have the option to just ban anyone you feel is not providing anything constructive to this thread.

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  #160 (permalink)
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monpere View Post
Why are you guys entertaining the ramblings of this guy (sidney7) who clearly has no grasp of programming concepts, just spouts off nonsense in areas he has no expertise in, makes huge general assumptions about other people's systems which he has no first hand knowledge of, challenges people's claims with not reasonable cause, and continuously makes ridiculous assumptions. Nothing this person has said so far has contributed anything positive or informative to this discussion. To the original thread starter, I have never advocated this, but you do have the option to just ban anyone you feel is not providing anything constructive to this thread.

They are entertaining it because I have valid points. I majored in computer science in college, But that shouldn't even matter. I don't need to know anything to challenge peoples ideas. just like you,
Monpere, have found it your way to negate all of my ideas in almost all of my posts.

If you guys believe whole heartedly in automated trading being the savior or all saviors to discretion, why not leverage out every trade it wants since it's "statistics" back it up? If you guys are so great at programming why not work for a trading firm on a team of other programmers getting paid a stable wage?

If you sincerely have made a significant portion of money trading through automation I want to see proof in live form not simulation, I want to see code, I want to see the trades it made and why. If not, how can you really reject any criticism? If not, it's all just speculation.

Ban me if you want, But i'm sure a lot of other people are wondering the same thing, they just don't have the guts to come out and say it.

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