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Add to a trade
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Add to a trade

  #31 (permalink)
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Quoting 
Absolutely true, trading IS gambling in that you are putting money on an UNCERTAIN future. Whether automated or discretionary, it is a game of probability, pure and simple.

Here I lost you. On one hand you say that its a game of probabilities, but then you say that each day is different and you trade different because of it.
As I see it or you are very good statistician and can calculate probabilities in more sophisticated manor than I can, or you call a strategy (setup) your entry criteria, and you draw your probabilities from your discretionary back performance.
For me a strategy/setup is a combination of entry point, stop loss and PT. Of course I try to test that my setup doesn't break if I change my stop or PT by a few ticks, but the same goes to my entries.
Unfortunately with my limited statistical knowledge I can get probabilities, on which I can relay, only from a complete setup.

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  #32 (permalink)
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Myshkin View Post
Top poker players and blackjack card counters are gambling and they are increasing the size of their bets according to when the odds/probability ARE in their favor much like when a high PROBABILITY setup calls for you to throw in your digital chips and roll the dice (hopefully loaded in your favor;-)

Poker shows cherry pick exciting hands and don't give you an idea of what it's like to play at that table.

What you are describing sounds like a "pump it or dump it" method of betting based on current hand strength.

In no limit, these people would be easy to shake out of a hand when weak and easy to limit losses against with when strong, because they are so easy to read.

Each flop, turn and river isn't a role of the dice because the percentages don't reset to a fixed ratio as the hand progresses.

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  #33 (permalink)
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Myshkin View Post
OK, it has come in 20 ticks, let's put them back on again with that 20 ticks price improvement. Surely, it doesn't take much of an analysis to see that today's bottom to top CL move of just over 200 ticks had within it an easy 900 ticks of potential production, short here, cover there, reverse entire position, etc.

Sure, it doesn't take much of an analysis, in hindsight, but to trade this way, in real time, is nearly impossible and I suspect only a few of the best can really do this on a consistent basis. That's based on nothing other than my own experience that trading is hard enough just to get into a position, and be able to hold that position for a profit, much less get out with a profit, reverse bias on the spot, take that profit, reverse again, and so on. It sounds so easy and looks so easy that you would have taken profit here, re-entered here, and on and on. As I said I know some people are successful at this, but what you are essentially describing is not only being right in a direction, but predicting turns in the market. No one can do this, not consistently anyway. Anyone who says they called a bottom or top over and over, market after market, is lying, plain and simple. It's too hard, and to think you can do it on anything other than sheer luck is to delude yourself, IMHO. Trading probabilities is one thing, to be an oracle in trading is to be a liar.

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  #34 (permalink)
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baruchs View Post
Here I lost you. On one hand you say that its a game of probabilities, but then you say that each day is different and you trade different because of it.
As I see it or you are very good statistician and can calculate probabilities in more sophisticated manor than I can, or you call a strategy (setup) your entry criteria, and you draw your probabilities from your discretionary back performance.
For me a strategy/setup is a combination of entry point, stop loss and PT. Of course I try to test that my setup doesn't break if I change my stop or PT by a few ticks, but the same goes to my entries.
Unfortunately with my limited statistical knowledge I can get probabilities, on which I can relay, only from a complete setup.

First off, I am not throwing down a challenge and I am quite certain that you are far better at calculating probabilities on the fly but try to keep things in context, brotherman, as my "probability" comment was regarding you speaking of trading as "gambling" if "discretionary" trading (a point on which i pointed out that it is usually not just based on a blind hunch but experience).

And yes, each day is different, are you saying it is not? If a system trading CL does not also consider that 6E is RIGHT NOW, not yesterday's similar price action, hitting its uber strong resistance and you are long CL, you then, from experience of seeing such before, consider the PROBABILITY of what is going to happen, maybe slightly less bullish and see what happens. If back in March, there is news that Kadaffi is killed or today's oil report showed 4k build across the board, I am not using time calculating probabilities, i am immediately short or out. This is based on experience and from that experience, we determine our probabilities of what will happen, looking then at the chart to see where next support line is, etc. Again, probability that it may hold that line but we look and see what it will do.

I am not saying your system doesn't work or that there is anything wrong with AIAO or entering purely on backtested probabilities (obviously:-) I am just trying to put forth the argument that flexibility, with scaling out (and in) and getting lots of production using the trader's own discretion is also a possible profitable angle. As for fairly successful discretionary traders, look up Jesse Livermore or more recently, Paul Tudor Jones.

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  #35 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Sure, it doesn't take much of an analysis, in hindsight, but to trade this way, in real time, is nearly impossible and I suspect only a few of the best can really do this on a consistent basis. That's based on nothing other than my own experience that trading is hard enough just to get into a position, and be able to hold that position for a profit, much less get out with a profit, reverse bias on the spot, take that profit, reverse again, and so on. It sounds so easy and looks so easy that you would have taken profit here, re-entered here, and on and on. As I said I know some people are successful at this, but what you are essentially describing is not only being right in a direction, but predicting turns in the market. No one can do this, not consistently anyway. Anyone who says they called a bottom or top over and over, market after market, is lying, plain and simple. It's too hard, and to think you can do it on anything other than sheer luck is to delude yourself, IMHO. Trading probabilities is one thing, to be an oracle in trading is to be a liar.



LOL Trading is definitely difficult and sure, there are no oracles of trading, picking every bottom and top (unless you are fading my trades on some days;-)
I was merely trying to make the point that there is not only one correct way to trade, i.e. buy once and sell once.
It is also possible to buy at strong support, sell some at minor resistance, buy a bit more if it comes off that price, sell when it hits (and holds) minor resistance again or when it breaks through to next magnet resistance. The thread is about scaling in so I am putting forth a method which involves scaling in (after scaling out). For some people, it works. If something else works for you, that's good too

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  #36 (permalink)
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whatnext View Post
Poker shows cherry pick exciting hands and don't give you an idea of what it's like to play at that table.

What you are describing sounds like a "pump it or dump it" method of betting based on current hand strength.

In no limit, these people would be easy to shake out of a hand when weak and easy to limit losses against with when strong, because they are so easy to read.

Each flop, turn and river isn't a role of the dice because the percentages don't reset to a fixed ratio as the hand progresses.

I was just throwing out an analogy dude, perhaps a weak one, that trading is gambling just like poker/blackjack is gambling and the "loaded" dice are your strong edge in the trade. Anyway, high probability trading setup=pair of J in the hole and a 2d, 6h and Js comes out on the flop. I really don't know poker all that well but you get the idea.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Myshkin View Post
LOL Trading is definitely difficult and sure, there are no oracles of trading, picking every bottom and top (unless you are fading my trades on some days;-)
I was merely trying to make the point that there is not only one correct way to trade, i.e. buy once and sell once.
It is also possible to buy at strong support, sell some at minor resistance, buy a bit more if it comes off that price, sell when it hits (and holds) minor resistance again or when it breaks through to next magnet resistance. The thread is about scaling in so I am putting forth a method which involves scaling in (after scaling out). For some people, it works. If something else works for you, that's good too

One good book is "Optimizing your trading edge" by Bo yoder. It speaks a lot about payback cycle( ie. you redge has a +ve expectancy). Basic idea is that either the market is is payback mode or it is not. If it is not , then you take conservative approach. If it is then you go aggressive. These cycles repeat periodically for evey edge. How a trader recognizes the state of the current cycle is a little vague though ( more of a feel thing).

Just a thought. But maybe this concept can be used to decide if scaling in is advisible or not.

Sam

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