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Anyone find any indicators of value? That you wouldn't trade without...?
It is possible that, if you have some other type of analysis/information/decision-making-method that does give you a context in which you can use an indicator signal, then it may be helpful to you.
For what it's worth, I believe that if you took any of the "precise, objective, etc." type of indicators -- what I might call "mechanical" signals for lack of a better term -- and program them into an automated strategy and just ran it for a time in simulation, or ran a backtest with historical data, you might be surprised at the results. (I have done this enough to be convinced of it): After allowances for commissions, and making realistic assumptions about slippage, over time you will likely find it to be a net loser.... no matter how good it may look when you eyeball a chart.
You can also do all sorts of things to adjust for factors like changing volatility or anything else you like, and will still have a tough time breaking even after costs. Don't take my word for it. Try it.
There are a very few people who successfully create and profitably run automated strategies -- our own @kevinkdog here on FIO is one. But it ain't the easiest thing, and choosing and properly testing an idea is tough going. I think Kevin would also tell you that you will need to change them over time, because eventually the market changes and they fail. He may want to weigh in here, because it is important to understand this.
I do think there is a place for indicators in a discretionary method (not Kevin's thing ), and I think that the context that you think is in place when you put them to use is what will let them help or hinder you. (Example: you think the market is ready for a trend. You get a "trend" signal. If your first idea, the one about a trend coming, is right, then the signal could be your decision trigger.) Just be aware that the precision and objectivity of the signals does not, in itself, buy you that much. They'll be precise and objective when they fail, too.
So my advice is to pick something that makes sense to you (and don't worry too much about whether it's the "right" or "best" one, they're not that different) and see if it helps you apply your larger method successfully.
Yes, this means accepting the "subjective" (I would prefer "discretionary" -- it sounds so much better ) aspect of trading. The alternative is the very hard path of true automated system-building, a tough thing to succeed at, and the only way to be totally "objective."
I don't mean to be discouraging. I hope you find something that gives you the right balance you need. I just don't think that, outside of true automation, it's really going to be as great a help as you hope. And, yes, it may give you a small boost. Just don't get too caught up in finding the "best" one.
At the time being, I'm not looking for an automated system, although I won't rule it out in the future. I don't think anything in trading or being successful in whatever field it is is easy, though.
And I know from other parts of my trading methodology that I've learned things and discovered truths I wouldn't have if I weren't persistent, stubborn and actually believed there was something to find, although I hadn't seen it at that point.
I've been looking a bit at the MESA/MAMA indicator provided in NT8. I've also looked at it in conjunction with a MACD.
Alone, both seems to provide some interesting signals. In combination, getting confirmation from the MACD seems to generate less false signals. If there's be a way to filter chop or add some other conditions, I'm sure something worthwhile could be achieved on this basis alone.
The indicator you talked about looks a lot like the Kijun and tenkan lines from the ichimoku indicator. When I applied the MAMA to my Ichi chart they were nearly identical. One way to avoid false signals and chip is to apply the lagging line to the ichi indicator
Here is my chart from Friday NQ
Keep things as simple as possible, but no simplier. Albert Einstein
If you can't explain it to an eight year old it's to complicated
For most of my trading, I tend to get my cues from chart overlays instead of separate indicators. I am the type that eyeball the big pictures first.
Usually, MA (combinations of EMA and SMA) and PSAR suffice for my style.
), and I think that the context that you think is in place when you put them to use is what will let them help or hinder you. (Example: you think the market is ready for a trend. You get a "trend" signal. If your first idea, the one about a trend coming, is right, then the signal could be your decision trigger.) Just be aware that the precision and objectivity of the signals does not, in itself, buy you that much. They'll be precise and objective when they fail, too.
