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The Fibonacci/Galactic Trader?
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The Fibonacci/Galactic Trader?

  #11 (permalink)
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Grey1 View Post
Fib numbers are useless in non-deterministic market,,, any use of fib in your trading is nothing except an excuse to throw your money in the bin ,,

If you think that markets are entirley non-deterministic, then you should not trade.

Fibs can work well, if you make proper use of them.

-> first of all fib levels are used by a bunch of traders which validates them based on self-fulfilling prophecy
-> and then there are specific patterns - such as a Gartley pattern - which tell you a story

The bearish Gartley pattern tells you that after a sustained uptrend and a fast down move, bulls are unable to test the final swing high after they pushed up prices twice (two up-legs).

It is not the exact Fibonacci ratios that count. Whether you take 23.6/38.2/50.0/61.8/78.6 or 25.0/37.5/50.0/62.5/75.0 is not that important.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
If you think that markets are entirley non-deterministic, then you should not trade.

Fibs can work well, if you make proper use of them.

-> first of all fib levels are used by a bunch of traders which validates them based on self-fulfilling prophecy
-> and then there are specific patterns - such as a Gartley pattern - which tell you a story

The bearish Gartley pattern tells you that after a sustained uptrend and a fast down move, bulls are unable to test the final swing high after they pushed up prices twice (two up-legs).

It is not the exact Fibonacci ratios that count. Whether you take 23.6/38.2/50.0/61.8/78.6 or 25.0/37.5/50.0/62.5/75.0 is not that important.

The problem with preachers of FIB level is that where ever the price stops it is near to one of the FIB levels and this gives traders the illusion of market obeying these level .
Market is none- deterministic which means consciousness plays a major role in price action . you cannot apply FIB levels to consciousness. FIB levels are all over the nature from universe to the shape of your face and so on but when it comes to human cognitive behavior it fails to perform ,, the fact that so many traders are using it supports that so manytraders are still in 100 years old classical TA school of thought ,, time to move on to modern risk based technical frame work to achieve success lol.

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  #13 (permalink)
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Grey1 View Post
The problem with preachers of FIB

As a newbie on futures.io (formerly BMT) perhaps you should not be so critical.
With 7 posts... all of them are negative comments except the one below... Which seems to be true.

Maybe you should start your own thread about how you trade???
FWIW


Grey1 View Post
I just joined and have no idea how to post on this forum,, Damn I am so dumb


Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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  #14 (permalink)
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With every tool there need to be a plan. Fib is a very nice tool for target if you understand what's going on. I say it's not that simple. And it takes a lot of time to understand it. Every thing ind this world is about probability. Some like indicators or just think they have the right feeling today or what ever. Without a plan it will not work for what ever tool there are in use.

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  #15 (permalink)
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DavidHP View Post
As a newbie on futures.io (formerly BMT) perhaps you should not be so critical.
With 7 posts... all of them are negative comments except the one below... Which seems to be true.

Maybe you should start your own thread about how you trade???
FWIW


Thank you ,, I will open a new thread,, being critical is good , it makes people either to call me stupid or THINK about what they do ,, I hope it is the later but if it is the former I am fine with that too ,,

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  #16 (permalink)
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Grey1 View Post
Thank you ,, I will open a new thread,, being critical is good , it makes people either to call me stupid or THINK about what they do ,, I hope it is the later but if it is the former I am fine with that too ,,

@Grey1: Criticism is good, but serious contributions usually do not come as one-liners. There are both arguments in favor of and against the use of Fibonacci tools. Let me start with the negative points:


Negative: The golden ratio is considered as being sort of a natural law that applies to all sorts of living creatures from cactuses to scallops, and which should be applied to the markets. I have searched and never found any scientific argument that explains why Fibonacci ratios should work better than any other ratios for describing time series. And yes, you are correct: Technical Analysis comes with a lot of mumbo-jumbo starting with the square of nine, wave counting and ending with magical numbers such as the fibonacci ratio.

Positive: Fibonacci brought modern mathematics to medieval Europe. Traders identify themselves with his findings, as his "Liber Abaci" is one of the most important works for the further development of Italy ( ... just imagine that the Italian states had continued to use Roman numbers. ). Although non-linear systems are not exhibiting any behaviour linked to Fibonacci numbers, the arbitrary use of Fibonacci numbers creates a positive drain, as the system of Fibonacci numbers is self-sustaining or even self-reinforcing. This is due to some of the properties of the golden ratio. Let us just treat Fibonacci trading as a fad, which once established, has a better chance of surviving the verdict of market analysts than other fads.

In fact, I just bought a placebo treatment for my mother. I know that the medicament does not work, but self-delusion is often an important contributor to success. This also applies to Fibonacci number. And then you can also use them just as a scale to find out how far price has moved. After all the fibonacci ratios are very close to the scale that you get, if you divide 100 intro 8 equal parts. Trading for profits is not science. Everyone needs to find her own landmarks in order to make the right decisions.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Placebo treatment

For many people, it is much easier to believe that some natural lines are hit like magic
than to recognize that ANY line that lies within 2 standard deviations should regularly
be hit with a probability of about 95% (fat tails of the distribution ignored for the sake of simplicity ) ...

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  #18 (permalink)
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You can always find a number or some ATR model where you probability is bigger on the edges. The same thing for fib. The big issue is how you manage your risk and read market in confluence with trend, support/resistance and structure.

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  #19 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
@Grey1: Criticism is good, but serious contributions usually do not come as one-liners. There are both arguments in favor of and against the use of Fibonacci tools. Let me start with the negative points:


Negative: The golden ratio is considered as being sort of a natural law that applies to all sorts of living creatures from cactuses to scallops, and which should be applied to the markets. I have searched and never found any scientific argument that explains why Fibonacci ratios should work better than any other ratios for describing time series. And yes, you are correct: Technical Analysis comes with a lot of mumbo-jumbo starting with the square of nine, wave counting and ending with magical numbers such as the fibonacci ratio.

Positive: Fibonacci brought modern mathematics to medieval Europe. Traders identify themselves with his findings, as his "Liber Abaci" is one of the most important works for the further development of Italy ( ... just imagine that the Italian states had continued to use Roman numbers. ). Although non-linear systems are not exhibiting any behaviour linked to Fibonacci numbers, the arbitrary use of Fibonacci numbers creates a positive drain, as the system of Fibonacci numbers is self-sustaining or even self-reinforcing. This is due to some of the properties of the golden ratio. Let us just treat Fibonacci trading as a fad, which once established, has a better chance of surviving the verdict of market analysts than other fads.

In fact, I just bought a placebo treatment for my mother. I know that the medicament does not work, but self-delusion is often an important contributor to success. This also applies to Fibonacci number. And then you can also use them just as a scale to find out how far price has moved. After all the fibonacci ratios are very close to the scale that you get, if you divide 100 intro 8 equal parts. Trading for profits is not science. Everyone needs to find her own landmarks in order to make the right decisions.

I am new here and still have not be able to allocate the time to make serious and lengthy contribution ,, But I will , Also one liner stuff is not my style ,
There is nothing clever or edgy about fib number when it comes to human behavior and his cognitive nature . FIB numbers are all over the unconscious and materialist world, from the design of flowers, to the universe, the fib foot print is written there and can not be dismissed,, BUT NOT WHEN IT COMES TO HUMAN BEHAVIOR,,
I have been involved in the design of many codes for few firms , part of my work was to find out how other big firms codes work and none of them use Fib number in their analysis ,, so why should you ?

I will be outlining the following soon when I get a chance.. ( in a new thread )
1) the modern approach to trading , most of the work will be about risk , risk analysis risk management, and how to calculate risk at any given time easily with out any reference to complicated maths,,
2) total rejection of classical TA, including all its static useless indicators and its most important tool SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE,
I am too old for this ego thing usually seen amongst our younger traders, I am not here to lecture or boost my credibility as we would say in UK , been there done that ,, I write my piece and perhaps handful of you guys take advantage of it and that is what matters to me,,



Iraj


Last edited by Grey1; April 16th, 2015 at 04:55 AM.
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  #20 (permalink)
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Hey FatTails! You got a nice profile pic !!! Love the bear!!

but the bear doesn't seem to have any tail XD


just found this awesome emoticon XD EPIC!!


Fat Tails View Post
@Grey1: Criticism is good, but serious contributions usually do not come as one-liners. There are both arguments in favor of and against the use of Fibonacci tools. Let me start with the negative points:


Negative: The golden ratio is considered as being sort of a natural law that applies to all sorts of living creatures from cactuses to scallops, and which should be applied to the markets. I have searched and never found any scientific argument that explains why Fibonacci ratios should work better than any other ratios for describing time series. And yes, you are correct: Technical Analysis comes with a lot of mumbo-jumbo starting with the square of nine, wave counting and ending with magical numbers such as the fibonacci ratio.

Positive: Fibonacci brought modern mathematics to medieval Europe. Traders identify themselves with his findings, as his "Liber Abaci" is one of the most important works for the further development of Italy ( ... just imagine that the Italian states had continued to use Roman numbers. ). Although non-linear systems are not exhibiting any behaviour linked to Fibonacci numbers, the arbitrary use of Fibonacci numbers creates a positive drain, as the system of Fibonacci numbers is self-sustaining or even self-reinforcing. This is due to some of the properties of the golden ratio. Let us just treat Fibonacci trading as a fad, which once established, has a better chance of surviving the verdict of market analysts than other fads.

In fact, I just bought a placebo treatment for my mother. I know that the medicament does not work, but self-delusion is often an important contributor to success. This also applies to Fibonacci number. And then you can also use them just as a scale to find out how far price has moved. After all the fibonacci ratios are very close to the scale that you get, if you divide 100 intro 8 equal parts. Trading for profits is not science. Everyone needs to find her own landmarks in order to make the right decisions.



Last edited by jsk123; April 20th, 2015 at 12:39 AM.
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