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system_fuzzy
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system_fuzzy

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Lahore Pakistan
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: GOLD, oil , stocks
 
Posts: 40 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 6 received

system_fuzzy

hi,

after trying svm and NN for identifying patterns, but failing in real and live trades badly, I was thinking of using fuzzy system. does any one had the chance to evaluates their performance in live trading..
thanks..


Last edited by asimsaim; January 27th, 2013 at 04:47 AM.
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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Atkinson, NH USA
 
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There is a thread in the elite section on this topic. But a quick thought would be the net over-fit your data. If you training set reported good results and validation set didn't, this is usually the case.

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-NJAMC [Generic Programmer]

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  #4 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Lahore Pakistan
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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yes I think over fit is different. however after experimenting with some parameters like learning rate, performance etc. the results are not bad.

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  #5 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Lahore Pakistan
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 40 since Aug 2012
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Types

There are 02 types for fuzzy systems.

a. Mamdani Method
b. Sugeno Method

how the inputs translates to output is determined by membership function (mf).
so far I have seen Mamdani type FIS structures to be giving better results in trading scenarios.

as far , For Sugeno I am in the middle of experimenting.

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  #6 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Lahore Pakistan
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: GOLD, oil , stocks
 
Posts: 40 since Aug 2012
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Mamdani

based on my personal learning curve and observations,

you need to fit the MFs very accurately according to data. for ins and outs.

however plus points are you can adjust the weights for rules.

If every thing done carefully to build the system. it can provide very good results.

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  #7 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Lahore Pakistan
 
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Favorite Futures: GOLD, oil , stocks
 
Posts: 40 since Aug 2012
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Sugeno

It has fixed weights, linear only MFS are possible. computationally efficient, and results are good as well.


Last edited by asimsaim; February 9th, 2013 at 02:28 PM.
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  #8 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Lahore Pakistan
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: GOLD, oil , stocks
 
Posts: 40 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 6 received

over fitting

The neuro fuzzy systems use back propagation to learn, and these systems may prove better than all other AI structures, and during learning If system training error is decreasing, and system checking error starts increasing, it is a clear sign of overfitting...


Last edited by asimsaim; February 12th, 2013 at 12:58 PM.
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