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My trading philosophy for choosing the Holy Grail trade setup
If I knew there was going to be so many comments I'd've baked a cake.
I am sorry if the use of the phrase ‘Holy Grail’ has offended anyone. As Big Mike notes another phrase might not caused people to comment, but that’s the name of this setup.
You make a valid point. Copyrights and patents can be essential parts of a business. Without them, a big company could just copy products and sell them at such a low price that a innovative smaller company could not compete.
Secrecy is always an option but there is another way. Sharing knowledge expands knowledge for everyone. As a common principle I believe it can create new opportunities and new horizons which can enrich all of us. There are people who want to share, educate and they want to see other people grow and develop. They get profound satisfaction from seeing people using their knowledge. The income they get is not just a monetary reward but an emotional one. The emotional rewards of seeing people learn, grow and achieve is one of the primary reasons why people become Nurses, Teachers and Parents.
For me MTPredictor is as much about Education as it is about selling software.
The setups are already out there, the developer Steve Griffiths, has been blogging about them since Jan 2010. Google reckons that for the phrase ‘mtpredictor “Holy Grail”’ there are 2,480 hits. The cat is truly out of the bag.
I believe that investment banks and hedge funds employ hundreds of quantitative analysts to search all financial markets for new edges. Using maths that I will never understand and huge data centres they are engaged in a continual war of trying to find ways to break other banks models and strengthen their own. This has been going on for many years and thankfully the Holy Grail setup is still valid. Perhaps one day it will stop working, I cannot say when that might be.
I understand the holy grail thing. I searched and searched forever trying to find the holy grail and I think we all do at some point. That's how a lot of us learned. I've shared my entire journey from beginning to where I am now on the internet with 5 different journals over 3.5 years. I've programmed 20 or so indicators for anyone to use and continue to learn from everyone else on the internet. There comes a time though where 4000 hours of programming/trading and another 2000 hours of executing trades until the method was consistently profitable becomes hard to give away for free. That's where I was coming from in my initial post.
I would also like to say I understand where you're coming from with lagging indicators. I stopped using traditional indicators because every time price changed, they would change. That's when I started again from scratch with a blank chart and only price and volume. So now you're working with the third wave of the elliot wave theory and it's been working out well for you? I never really went down the elliot wave road but I have an online friend that uses his counts often. Whatever works! If what someone is doing isn't working for them, then they may want to check out the third wave in elliot wave theory like you mentioned.
I've read somewhere that Elliot wave 5 setups only work 20% of the time in the current market these days. In general "wave 3" setups imo can be equated to common price action continuation and can go by many names.
Basically "wave 2" is the consolidation phase and the "leg" of the "wave 3" is the continuation breakout.
Al Brook's "breakout pullback" and "measured move" can be seen as a wave 1-2-3 pattern. Which is similar to Gartley and general A-B-C-D patterns. CJBooth's "lazy W" or "W" pattern is pretty much a setup for a "wave 3" continuation move while attempting to use a few indicators to support or confirm the entry. That the "wave 3" pattern is practically a universal price action pattern makes it likely that it will not go away no matter the amount of exposure and HFT. It will just be messy or spikey and increasingly varied as it has been, but more often than not the "wave 3" breakout mirror leg to "wave 1" will occur , or it will fail and most likely form a "double top" and then a leg in the opposite direction.
Thank you to everyone for your thoughts. The wave 3 setup, as a regularly occurring pattern, is not new but the approach of MTPredictor in focusing on risk control and position sizing with all the relevant entry and exit data displayed on the screen is to my mind, an important addition to trading.
MTPredictors' Holy Grail has been shown to work. I can understand why the 'non believers' and the 'non followers' ridicule it... Let them, I say...
Albert Einstein is quoted as saying, "Condemnation, without investigation, is the height of ignorance."
I have attended close to 300 of MTPredictors free hourly webinars. **That is 300 plus hours free training**
This is one of the MAJOR components of the MTPredictor software training and trading, once you become part of the MTPredictor Community. One of the major selling points of MTPredictor is the free one hourly webinars, three times a week.
I like the 'Holy Grail' set ups, which have the red volume spikes into a DP. Actually VOLUME is associated with me in the webinars... **Smiles**
I like the double 'Holy Grails' the best, where a five wave sequence into a 15 minute DP, followed by a RED Volume Spike, into a five wave reversal. That could possibly generate a 20R PLUS return.
As I said, I can understand why 'non believers' and the 'non followers' ridicule it all, they have the chance to walk away... **Smiles**
I am afraid that spreading the setup will entice the reverse engineering guys which will then crack the software in no time. It's only a ninjatrader add-on, which isn't protected very well. I don't think that this is in the sense of the MTP owner steve. The trading forums like big mike are target of these guys and parsed regularly. I'm also a dot net software developer and i know the pitfalls of the common obfuscations.
We have been developing the MTPredictor program for 11 years now, so you can let me worry about hackers, they are no problem for normal MTPredictor customers.
I titled my post HOLY GRAIL to get your attention. There are couple of "smart" philosophical comments here from the traders who did not take time to read about (leave alone studied) MTPredictor software. First of all, naming a trade setup "Holy Grail" has nothing to do with the notion of 100% winning trade setup. Second, MTPredictor software IS NOT AN INDICATOR. It is a system that ALERTS you about possible trade setup BASED ON THE PRICE ACTION. But you do not need "...to watch the prices unfold bar by bar..." to pick up crumbs here and there by scalping. Instead (and this is, IMO, the most important component of the software) MTP gives you an ability to enter trades with reward to risk ratio so big, that even if your win per cent is 30, you still end up with nice profit at the end of a reasonably extended time period. Obviously, it is not a holy grail, but based on the First Amendment, the author of the setup can name it any way he want, even "Holy Grail".
On the personal note, I participated in a trade competition in 2012. Out of 245 participants, I was #9. And guess what? THE ONLY SETUP I used during the competition was HOLY GRAIL. The average Reward to Risk was 3.4, with 42% winning trades. You do the math.
