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Trades from 6/26/2012


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Trades from 6/26/2012

  #1 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75

Here's how I personally played the day so far. All of my trades have been on the NQ, with the exception of one pyramided position added on the YM based on some correlated intermarket analysis. I will post an update later with the final result of how it all plays out and based on how I manage the currently open positions.

My analysis and comments on how I viewed the market today is on the attached chart. You'll note that it incorporates a number of concepts that John and Steve review regularly such as the opening gap tendencies, multi-timeframe analysis, and using correlated markets to add additional weight or confirmation, and even pyramid, with a position in another market, which is generally how I look to trade.

[Edit: Just replaced the .gif with .png since it was showing a black background and was hard to see]

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  #2 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75

Here is a screenshot of the current positions as they stand at the moment on the NQ and the YM and the rationale for the added position on the YM.

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  #3 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75


Here is the result of the earlier trades on how I chose to manage them into the close. The result on the two was a total of +5.7R, for a total of +7.3R on the day including transaction costs.

I will note that the total gain of +7.3 for the day is not quite twice the total worst case risk taken on the day of -4R, assuming all trades were losing trades.

In a nutshell, it's a nice profit for the day, but is somewhat on the "inefficient" side in terms of being measured against the risk required to obtain it. Either way, no complaints.

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  #4 (permalink)
John L
Little Rock, AR
 
Posts: 3 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 1

Shawn, if you get a chance, could you post your 15 min analysis. I was looking at the same NQ long that you were, but I was confused on the 15 min charts so didn't take the trade. I think I was looking at the same daily analysis that you were, just getting to W2 or b support. The 60 minute was also showing a long TS3. But I couldn't make sense of the 15 minute charts. My trading plan keeps me from trading if I can't make sense out of my analysis, although the VSA's on the 15 min and 3 min almost convinced me to take it anyway.

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  #5 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75

Hi John,

You're absolutely right that the 15m charts were a little bit tricky yesterday, and it's a very good rule to be cautious or even refrain when things are not as clear as you personally would like to see.

In the case of the US e-mini's, the RTH 15m charts were not quite as clear as I would like to see. What I had going there was the gap fill at potential daily support with the tendency to move in the other direction, along with the YM nearly coming to 15m DP support, and the TF making a nice move and reversal into 15m DP support.

The ETH charts, which I also keep handy and look at when the RTH is not particularly clear, were much clearer, with all 4 markets largely coming out of a period of overnight consolidation ("basing") after the big gap down into Monday, followed by a sharp break down into 15m DP support there, along with VSA spikes lending support to potential professional buying at those levels. This type of new vigorous break to new highs and lows following an already big move is very often telegraphed professional activity to shake out the "weak hands", in this case, longs who couldn't stand the pain of holding on to a losing position, and so they liquidiated at favorable prices to the professionals wanting to add to a long position at favorable prices to bid the market higher.

I've attached a screenshot of the NQ 15m ETH, and the other markets were behaving similarly at that time. Make no mistake about it, it was definitely a little bit tricky, so having the discipline to stand aside when it's not clear to you personally is good trading.

The longer you spend time in the markets, the more you will begin to see things unfold again and again and you will really begin to get a feel for the tempo, pace, and behavior of the markets as they unfold in real time, so you will gain more confidence when you begin to see certain things, and you will begin to perceive more in general.

In general, I try to look at the "whole picture" to try and build my overall bias or read on the day, and when it works, you capitalize on the profitable trades, and when it doesn't, you trade conservatively and manage to small losses.

Hopefully this helps-

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Last Updated on June 28, 2012


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