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Many,many thanks for your indepth reply Deucalion !!
What makes me think you know anything - At one time I was an avid follower of a certain blogspot under the Deucalion name. Your contributions to Big Mike's Forum are very similar !!
What are you trading? And how...?
I trade the Australian SPI futures, currency futures (6A &6E) and emini's using NT7 and eSignal - My main focus is MTP setups and 1 to 1 setup's. I have always traded with minute charts.
Reading your responses to this thread today sparked my interest in knowing more about tick based charts and you have given me more than enough information to delve further into this area.
Once again -
appreciate the sharing of your knowledge !!
Aha! that is an insightful question. Why there? The devil lies in the details, and those little things can make or break a trade. Steve makes the rules for standard setups, I nearly ignore every single one of those rules.
Reasons -
Look at the DP on the 4181t chart, its right there, signaling that it maybe a ripe area for a retrace.
2nd, you said it already. The average ATR on ES daily is 15 points (from 10day to120day average), give or take. By this time it had already done 23 points. Do you really expect the market to give you more? This is not the CL or 6E which overruns targets all the time, the ES is much more tame (most of the time)
3rd, The normal thing would be to expect the market to keep going. I never expect the market to do the normal. I expect a curve ball every time, which means I miss a ton of trades, but I also don't get killed. Its give and take (its not perfect but, its an evolving body of work)
3rd, watch the daily, you do not need complicated volume analysis to tell you that it hit a major daily resistance.
4th, screen time and feel - obviously this takes time. If I don't get in at an opportune location, I pull everything on first target, shoot first and ask questions later.
Indeed, that was my blog, which I pulled, because despite the actual live account screenshots each day, the potshots I got from anonymous folks got a little tiring. And then i realized than my issues with trading were not getting resolved with the blog. They lay in simplification and dogged execution of singular simple setups.
I took a really time to figure out that instead of doing more I needed to do less.
You continue to be an extremely valuable part of the trading community.
I too want to thank you for the knowledge and experience you share here, as well as the help and guidance you've given to me over the years.
Sincere appreciation,
-AT
"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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@Chez, and others...see what correct position sizing (thank you mtp) and common sense does...same thing...lather rinse repeat..I am using the leverage of my account size, so be aware of that, and that there is zero support until 1416 really...but all in all....could not have asked for a better structure...again! You can see the RR isnt that great, only 1.7....but only because I wanted to get out early and be done, holding for the larger chart target will give better RR, and might take all day
Nice trade today. It was a day that when I looked at the ES and I didn't see what to do but felt it was going to be all downhill after the first large bear candle on the 3 min chart. There wasn't enough room between it and the previous close to enter with enough R/R. Because nothing looked clear I sat it out and missed the whole move. The pattern you found I couldn't, not even using a 1 min chart. I have not experimented to tick charts which it looks like you may trade off exclusively and very successfully.
I managed to get into the ES today based on a manual trade entry on a 3 min bear bar after the opening. I was gunshy the other day and missed the big move on a standard setup and have been kicking myself ever since.
A lot of symmetrical setups that were widely prevalent on the ES intra day are now becoming less so. The CL used to have some of those a while back as well. This is becoming less and less so. "Spurt and die" and large amplitude directional moves are no longer evident on TF, NQ and CL only. There are very much more prevalent on ES and YM.
I have all but abandoned smaller time frames, Blame HFT's, credit fueled madness et al. One solution is to go bigger TFs, like many good traders suggest here, it is one good way to control risk. Someone said one time futures are beginning to resemble currencies in their structure and movement, as they resemble their underlying fundamentals less and less. It is harder to trade, but fortunately we do have the option to use bigger time frames and use scale in scale out methods or hold for extended targets.
When I see Dow and ES range like they have done in the last 4days, I swear the VIX would have been much higher than 18!. Imagine what would be the amplitude if the vix was 25 or 30, or 40!. Not to mention that CL ranged 1000points in the same low volatility but large amplitude environments.
I believe there is very valid point to be made to trade futures more like swing forex. It can only help. Adapt or die comes to mind. MTP lends itself to be more optimized on larger time frames, something I can no longer ignore (240M, 480M and dailies...that sort of thing)
