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confused and netrual markets?
In the Logical Trader Fisher discusses using slopes of MAs to identify “confused” markets. In this Fisher describes multiple length MAs aligning their slopes to ensure that a market is moving the same direction in multiple timeframes. Fisher discusses “pivot” moving averages, from this it is interpreted that he actually means Open, High and Low / 3 calculations for daily prices. Though, it is assumed that any data point can be used for the calculation of the MA. Additionally, Fisher does not discuss which type of MA he recommends. Fisher is also at great pains to point out the difference between “confused” markets and “neutral” markets. Neutral markets are markets where the MAs have a flat slope; “confused” markets are where the slopes of the MAs do not align
Has anyone had experience of using this type of analysis to differentiate between flat and trending markets?
The thing I don’t truly understand both the points in Fisher’s book is that are we talking about a doubly smoothed regression here? If you regress on the MAs is that doubly smoothed as doing a Least Squares Regression is a form of smoothing isn’t?
Possibly someone with more mathematical knowledge could comment?