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NQ - 3m TS4 Long to play the 15m Wave 4 into Wave 5


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NQ - 3m TS4 Long to play the 15m Wave 4 into Wave 5

  #1 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75

I just exited this trade for +3.6R on the NQ. The idea was to play the 3m TS4 long as the 15m Wave 4 into Wave 5, coinciding with the 15m DP which worked perfectly in completing a really clear 5 wave pattern on the 15m NQ. We'll see where it goes from here. I would like to expect that it would pause and take a breather and at least correct, but it sure is starting to feel like 1999 all over again!

I apologize that the chart is a bit cluttered with my analysis...

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  #2 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75

Here is the 15m chart to add to the last trade showing the analysis on the 15m chart. This is a good example of trading with confidence when the pattern is clear. According to the "rules", the NQ is selling off at the moment at the Wave 5 high coinciding with the DP.

However, this time around, I wasn't feeling all that bold about shorting it after just coming off of a decent winner. Would prefer to see the initial correction off of the first reaction down for a potential "holy grail" short trade...

With the strength in the NQ, a short is a tough proposition, but that is where risk control is paramount so that the potential reward is very large....

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  #3 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75


Here's how I would begin to look in advance for a potential Holy grail setup. The area is a little tight and the NQ is pretty ferocious lately, so I'm a bit cautious should a setup happen. Plus, I don't have confluence in other markets, which I like to see personally.

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  #4 (permalink)
ChrisH
Toronto, Canada
 
Posts: 1 since Feb 2012
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Nice trade, Shawn.

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  #5 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75

As the market is unfolding, note that the decline has unfolded as an ABC pattern, which is a potential warning against looking short. At best, things are a bit unclear at the moment with conflicting informaiton, not at all uncommon in real world trading. The way things have been, I should not be at all surprised should the market go either way at this juncture.

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  #6 (permalink)
 Paul Botelho 
fall river, MA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: oil
Posts: 17 since May 2012
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sdonahue,

Are you still using MTPredictor? If not, why did you stop using? Reasons I'm asking is because I'm thinking about getting it. Thanks

Paul

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  #7 (permalink)
 sdonahue 
Camas, WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MultiCharts, TradeStation
Broker: Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, thinkorswim/TDA, IQFeed
Trading: Futures, Futures Options, Index Options
Posts: 33 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 75

Hi Paul,

Yes, I am still using MTPredictor. In addition to standard price action, volume, and some more advanced fibonacci and market structure analysis, it is the only software I use for looking at markets to gauge sentiment and/or identify tradeable opportunities.

Of the large number of tools and software purchases I have personally made over the years with respect to trading, I can count on one hand the number I either a.) don't regret buying and b.) still use, and MTPredictor is right up there.


Thanks,
Shawn

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  #8 (permalink)
 Paul Botelho 
fall river, MA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: oil
Posts: 17 since May 2012
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 2

Shawn,


Thanks for the reply. I like you have bought more software than I would like to mention. I most likely will trial their software for the 2 weeks they offer to get a taste of it. Again thanks for replying



Paul B.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Paul Botelho 
fall river, MA/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
Trading: oil
Posts: 17 since May 2012
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 2

Shawn,

I have another quick question. I heard that you can't have an other charts open besides the one with the MTPredictor on it. Is this true? I don't see why it would. Thanks

Paul

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