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In my opinion, there are currently major risks in selling calls on soybeans:
We enter a weather market in spring. In case all corn can be planted as scheduled, the amount of beans planted will be less than if some corn is replaced by beans. In case there are weather problems during the planting time for beans, price will rise significantly.
Currently there is a lot of talk about the Chinese buying significantly less soybeans in the US than estimated for political reasons. Some of this is probably priced in. But they might be forced to buy in the US to feed their cattle and hogs - even more in case they want to avoid buying hogs in the US.
I prefer selling soybean calls in early summer when the weather reports for August are known.
In weather markets, in my opinion, it is of minor relevance. I remember a spring, when small specs were the only group significantly long in soybeans. In the following weather market they made a lot of money.
Will have to keep an eye on the ags, given their move. I think I got in to early.
Currently have /ZSX8 1300 and 1320 and /ZWZ8 650
May sell more calls in the coming months as looking at the 30 year seasonals, looks like beans go up during spring time but start to fall off more in the fall. Of course the China play anything can happen but I doubt the soybean sanctions will go thru and they will continue to buy from the US
Wheat should start dropping off during late summer into fall, so maybe good to pick up more calls on any surge
As I wrote a few posts below I do not think it is a good idea to sell soybean calls at this time of the year. In some years you make money, in other years you loose money. But when selling options, the losses are bigger than the profits ...
Seasonals are an average chart, including all years. To trade these charts successfully needs some more considerations than just to look at the chart. You find detailed information on this topic in this thread and in the thread "Seasonal Trades" (Commodities section).
